February 14, 2017 Albany Climate Change Chapter Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Climate change will affect Albany, California ........................................................................................... 3 Adaptation can help Albany protect its communities and assets in the face of changing climate conditions.................................................................................................................................................. 4 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Climate change will affect Albany, California ........................................................................................... 7 2. Climate Hazards Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 8 Inland Flooding ......................................................................................................................................... 9 Climate change may increase flood risks in Albany .............................................................................. 9 Albany will potentially face more frequent, severe floods ................................................................... 9 Few citywide assets are exposed to flood risk .................................................................................... 10 Sea Level Rise .......................................................................................................................................... 12 Albany will experience sea level rise due to climate change .............................................................. 12 Sea level rise is a certainty .................................................................................................................. 12 Sea level rise will mean floods affect more assets over time ............................................................. 13 Temperature Changes and Precipitation Events .................................................................................... 15 Climate change may increase temperatures in Albany, but impacts on rainfall are less clear .......... 15 Albany may experience higher annual average temperatures and more extreme heat days ........... 16 Temperatures in Albany are projected to be two to four degrees higher ......................................... 16 The impacts of climate change on rainfall are ambiguous ................................................................. 17 Rainfall Induced Landslides ..................................................................................................................... 19 Climate change may increase the risk of landslides by making flooding more common ................... 19 Extent of landslide risk areas is likely to be unaffected ...................................................................... 20 Wildfires .................................................................................................................................................. 20 Climate change may increase wildfire risks ........................................................................................ 20 Wildfires may become more common or severe ............................................................................... 21 Many assets are already exposed to wildfire risk ............................................................................... 21 3. Adaptation Options ............................................................................................................................. 22 Inland Flooding ....................................................................................................................................... 23 Sea Level Rise .......................................................................................................................................... 25 Higher Temperatures and Extreme Heat ................................................................................................ 26 Changes in Precipitation ......................................................................................................................... 27 1 Rainfall Induced Landslides ..................................................................................................................... 29 Wildfires .................................................................................................................................................. 29 Public Health ........................................................................................................................................... 30 Emergency Preparedness ....................................................................................................................... 30 Appendix A: Methods and Data Sources .................................................................................................... 32 Methods .................................................................................................................................................. 32 Data Sources ........................................................................................................................................... 32 Inland Flooding.................................................................................................................................... 32 Temperature and Precipitation ........................................................................................................... 34 Rainfall Induced Landslides ................................................................................................................. 35 Wildfires .............................................................................................................................................. 35 Appendix B: Calculated Priority Risk Index ................................................................................................. 36 Appendix C: Relevant Strategies from Albany’s Plans ................................................................................ 37 Appendix D: Adaptation Options ................................................................................................................ 47 Inland Flooding ....................................................................................................................................... 47 Sea Level Rise .......................................................................................................................................... 57 Higher Temperatures and Extreme Heat ................................................................................................ 60 Changes in Precipitation ......................................................................................................................... 66 Rainfall Induced Landslides ..................................................................................................................... 76 Wildfires .................................................................................................................................................. 77 Public Health ........................................................................................................................................... 79 Emergency Preparedness ....................................................................................................................... 82 2 Executive Summary Changing climate conditions such as higher temperatures, more intense periods of rainfall, and sea level rise are expected to exacerbate existing challenges that California’s cities and counties face. Senate Bill No. 379 Land Use: general plan: safety element (Jackson) (SB 379) calls on local governments to incorporate adaptation and resilience strategies into Safety Elements of their General Plans as well as their local hazard mitigation plans. This climate change chapter supports local governments’ implementation of SB 379 and builds on the State’s Adaptation Planning Guide. It describes projected changes in key climate hazards of concern for Albany and the citywide assets that these hazards are likely to affect and presents adaptation options to address these hazards. The climate hazard assessment and adaptation options are intended to inform the city’s efforts to incorporate climate hazards and adaptation strategies into its local hazard mitigation plan, General Plan Safety Element, and other relevant plans such as its climate action plan. In doing so, the content can also assist Albany in meeting requirements to position it for federal funding (e.g., Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)) and to meet voluntary commitments (e.g., Compact of Mayors). The hazards analyzed include inland flooding, sea level rise, changes in temperature and precipitation, flood- induced landslides and wildfire. Climate change will affect Albany, California Throughout the remainder of the 21st century, Albany’s climate is projected to grow substantially hotter, and precipitation patterns are expected to be less consistent and characterized by more intense rainfall events. Sea level rise is not expected to significantly affect the city’s emergency assets, with areas of inundation limited to Albany Bulb, access to Golden Gate Fields and parking