Baseline and predicted changes for the Thorny Passage Marine Park DEWNR Technical report 2016/15 Photo by Alison Wright Baseline and predicted changes for the Thorny Passage Marine Park Simon Bryars, James Brook, Craig Meakin, Chloe McSkimming, Yvette Eglinton, Robyn Morcom, Alison Wright and Brad Page Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources, August 2016 DEWNR Technical report 2016/15 Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources GPO Box 1047, Adelaide SA 5001 Telephone National (08) 8463 6946 International +61 8 8463 6946 Fax National (08) 8463 6999 International +61 8 8463 6999 Website www.environment.sa.gov.au Disclaimer The Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources and its employees do not warrant or make any representation regarding the use, or results of the use, of the information contained herein as regards to its correctness, accuracy, reliability, currency or otherwise. The Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources and its employees expressly disclaim all liability or responsibility to any person using the information or advice. Information contained in this document is correct at the time of writing. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. © Crown in right of the State of South Australia, through the Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources 2016 ISBN 978-1-925510-24-9 Preferred way to cite this publication Bryars, S., Brook, J., Meakin, C., McSkimming, C., Eglinton, Y., Morcom, R., Wright, A. and Page, B. 2016, Baseline and predicted changes for the Thorny Passage Marine Park, DEWNR Technical report 2016/15, Government of South Australia, through Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources, Adelaide Download this document at: http://www.marineparks.sa.gov.au DEWNR Technical report 2016/15 i Foreword The Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources (DEWNR) is responsible for the management of the State’s natural resources, ranging from policy leadership to on-ground delivery in consultation with government, industry and communities. High-quality science and effective monitoring provide the foundation for the successful management of our environment and natural resources. This is achieved through undertaking appropriate research, investigations, assessments, monitoring and evaluation. DEWNR’s strong partnerships with educational and research institutions, industries, government agencies, Natural Resources Management Boards and the community ensure that there is continual capacity building across the sector, and that the best skills and expertise are used to inform decision making. Sandy Pitcher CHIEF EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, WATER AND NATURAL RESOURCES DEWNR Technical report 2016/15 ii Acknowledgements The following staff from the Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources (DEWNR) are thanked for their input and feedback on draft versions of the baseline reports (in alphabetical order of surnames): David Armstrong, Dr Michelle Bald, Kirsty Bevan, Elijah Bravington, Danny Brock, Andrew Burnell, Colin Cichon, Dimitri Colella, Jon Emmett, Doug Fotheringham, Gary Frost, Dr Shelley Paull, Shane Holland, Dirk Holman, Vera Hughes, Glenn Jackway, Celeste Klose, Danny Male, Dr Jane McKenzie, David Miller, Angus Mitchell, David Pearce, Jonathan Phillips, Matt Royal, Glen Scholz, Robert Sleep, Chris Thomas, Roman Urban, Patricia von Baumgarten, Dr Annelise Wiebkin and Jessica Wilson. Thanks to Professor Michelle Waycott (University of Adelaide and DEWNR) for undertaking DEWNR’s Science, Monitoring and Knowledge (SMK) Principal Advisor review and contributing to improvement of the reports. Dr Brad Page (DEWNR) provided SMK principal advisor sign-off. External peer review was facilitated by Dr Michele Akeroyd through the Goyder Institute for Water Research and undertaken by Dr Scoresby Shepherd AO (SARDI Aquatic Sciences), Dr Bryan McDonald (Certitude Consulting), and Anthony Kosturjak and Steve Whetton (both from the South Australian Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide). We thank those reviewers for their comprehensive feedback which greatly improved the quality of the reports. The following people and organisations are thanked for assistance with sourcing of information for the reports: Jane Cooper (Bird Life Australia), Deb Clarke (South Australian Tourism Commission), Zsolt Szilassy (Viterra Ltd), Heather Bailey and Dr Julian Morison (EconSearch Pty Ltd), Claire Charlton (Curtin University), Sam Gaylard (EPA), Clinton Wilkinson (SASQAP), University of Tasmania, Reef Life Survey, PIRSA Aquaculture, PIRSA Fisheries, SARDI Aquatic Sciences, IMOS – the Integrated Marine Observing System, South Australian Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide, District Council of Kangaroo Island, District Council of Victor Harbor, and District Council of Ceduna. DEWNR Technical report 2016/15 iii Contents Foreword ii Acknowledgements iii Summary 1 1 Background 2 1.1 Marine parks in South Australia 2 1.2 Marine parks monitoring, evaluation and reporting program 4 1.3 Structure and aims of this report 5 2 Marine park description 8 3 Conceptual model 10 4 Ecological values 12 4.1 Reef 14 4.2 Seagrass 15 4.3 Sand 15 4.4 Mangrove 16 4.5 Saltmarsh 16 4.6 Sharks 17 4.7 Marine mammals 17 4.8 Seabirds 18 4.9 Shorebirds 18 5 Socio-economic values 19 5.1 Local businesses and communities 19 5.1.1 Human population 19 5.1.2 Production and employment 20 5.1.3 Building and property 22 5.1.4 Socio-economic advantage and disadvantage 23 5.1.5 Public appreciation, education and understanding 24 5.2 Coastal recreation 25 5.3 Tourism 28 5.4 Cultural heritage 30 5.4.1 Aboriginal heritage 30 5.4.2 European heritage 31 5.5 Transport and infrastructure 31 5.6 Aquaculture 32 5.7 Recreational fishing 33 5.8 Commercial fishing 35 5.8.1 Rock Lobster Fishery 35 5.8.2 Abalone Fishery 36 5.8.3 Prawn Fishery 37 5.8.4 Blue Crab Fishery 38 DEWNR Technical report 2016/15 iv 5.8.5 Sardine Fishery 38 5.8.6 Marine Scalefish Fishery 39 5.8.7 Charter Boat Fishery 40 5.8.8 Other South Australian managed fisheries 41 5.8.9 Commonwealth Shark Fishery 41 5.8.10 Fish prices 42 6 Physical drivers 45 6.1 Sea surface temperature 45 6.2 Air temperature 47 6.3 Salinity extremes 48 6.4 Upwellings 48 6.5 Oceanic currents 49 6.6 Waves 50 6.7 Tides 51 7 Socio-economic drivers 52 7.1 Interest rates 52 7.2 Commodity prices 53 7.3 Fuel prices 54 7.4 Labour force 55 7.5 Exchange rates 56 7.6 Visitation rates 57 7.7 Market demand 58 7.8 Major developments 58 7.9 Government regulation 58 8 Pressures 59 8.1 Coastal pollution 59 8.2 Resource extraction 60 8.2.1 Fishing 60 8.2.2 Aquaculture 64 8.3 Habitat modification 64 8.4 Disturbance of animals 65 8.5 Pest species 65 8.5.1 Invasive marine pests 66 8.5.2 Disease outbreaks 66 8.5.3 Introduced land pests 67 8.6 Climate change 67 9 Marine park management plan 69 9.1 The management plan 69 9.2 Pressures influenced by the TPMP management plan 70 9.2.1 Coastal pollution 70 9.2.2 Resource extraction 70 9.2.3 Habitat modification 71 9.2.4 Disturbance of animals 72 9.2.5 Invasive pest species 72 DEWNR Technical report 2016/15 v 9.2.6 Climate change 73 9.3 Socio-economic values influenced by the TPMP management plan 73 10 Predictions and indicators of change 74 10.1 Potential ecological changes 74 10.1.1 Reef ecosystems 74 10.1.2 Seagrass ecosystems 75 10.1.3 Sand ecosystems 75 10.1.4 Mangrove ecosystems 76 10.1.5 Saltmarsh ecosystems 76 10.1.6 Sharks 76 10.1.7 Marine mammals 76 10.1.8 Seabirds 76 10.1.9 Shorebirds 76 10.2 Potential socio-economic changes 76 10.2.1 Local businesses and communities 76 10.2.2 Coastal recreation 77 10.2.3 Tourism 77 10.2.4 Cultural heritage 77 10.2.5 Transport and infrastructure 77 10.2.6 Aquaculture 77 10.2.7 Fishing 78 10.3 Assumptions and interpretation of change 80 10.3.1 Assumptions 80 10.3.2 Indicators of physical drivers 81 10.3.3 Indicators of socio-economic drivers 81 10.3.4 Indicators of pressures 81 10.3.5 Indicators of marine park management plan activities 82 11 Conclusion 83 12 References 111 13 Appendices 131 A. Evaluation questions 131 B. Summary of habitats in each zone type 134 C. Spatial reporting units relevant to the South Australian Marine Parks Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting Program 135 D. Management priorities and strategies of the TPMP management plan 157 14 Glossary 160 DEWNR Technical report 2016/15 vi List of figures Figure 1. South Australia’s network of 19 marine parks showing marine park outer boundaries, 8 marine bioregions and highlighting the Thorny Passage Marine Park. 4 Figure 2. Adaptive management cycle for the marine parks MER program. 5 Figure 3. Framework for the baseline report that indicates how Sections 4 to 9 of this report are linked and used to inform Section 10 on predictions and indicators of change. All components of the framework will be used to inform the MER program. The direction and colour of the arrows indicates the influence of one component on another component or link. For example, the marine park management plan will directly influence socio-economic values, but it will also indirectly influence ecological values by mitigating some (but not all) of the pressures on those values. 6 Figure 4. Map of the Thorny Passage Marine Park showing important features of the marine park and adjacent land areas. Further information on marine and land uses is shown in Appendix C.