Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2014-09 Egypt's failure to transition to democracy under the Muslim Brotherhood Guenaien, Moez Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/43920 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS EGYPT’S FAILURE TO TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY UNDER THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD by Moez Guenaien September 2014 Thesis Advisor: Mohammed Hafez Second Reader: Glenn E. Robinson Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 2014 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS EGYPT’S FAILURE TO TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY UNDER THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD 6. AUTHOR(S) Moez Guenaien 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) A year after a democratic presidential election, Egyptian protestors returned to Tahrir Square to demand the resignation of President Mohammed Morsi because he refused to agree to an early election. Shortly after, President Morsi was toppled through a popularly-supported military coup, and his Muslim Brotherhood (MB) organization was thoroughly repressed. Today, the democratic process ushered in by the 25 January Revolution in 2011 has come to an end. Egypt seems to have returned to the previous authoritarian order that existed for over 60 years. Why did democracy fail to take hold in Egypt under the MB regime and President Mohammed Morsi? This thesis explores four hypotheses: Egypt’s non-readiness for democracy because of lack of socio-economic conditions; the failure of Egypt’s political actors to form a pact; the hostility of the Gulf States toward democracy and limited support from the international community; and the dissatisfaction of the deep state and economic elite with the MB in power. While all of these issues contributed to democracy failure in Egypt, the most critical component was that of the contribution of the political actors. If the political actors had formed a pact with the understanding that democracy would benefit all parties, they could have overcome the former regime and succeeded at aligning international support. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Egyptian politics, democratic transition, Muslim Brotherhood 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 127 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited EGYPT’S FAILURE TO TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY UNDER THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD Moez Guenaien Captain, United States Army BA, Portland State University, 2006 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDY (MIDDLE EAST, SOUTH ASIA, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2014 Author: Moez Guenaien Approved by: Mohammed Hafez Thesis Advisor Glenn E. Robinson Second Reader Mohammed Hafez Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT A year after a democratic presidential election, Egyptian protestors returned to Tahrir Square to demand the resignation of President Mohammed Morsi because he refused to agree to an early election. Shortly after, President Morsi was toppled through a popularly- supported military coup, and his Muslim Brotherhood (MB) organization was thoroughly repressed. Today, the democratic process ushered in by the 25 January Revolution in 2011 has come to an end. Egypt seems to have returned to the previous authoritarian order that existed for over 60 years. Why did democracy fail to take hold in Egypt under the MB regime and President Mohammed Morsi? This thesis explores four hypotheses: Egypt’s non-readiness for democracy because of lack of socio-economic conditions; the failure of Egypt’s political actors to form a pact; the hostility of the Gulf States toward democracy and limited support from the international community; and the dissatisfaction of the deep state and economic elite with the MB in power. While all of these issues contributed to democracy failure in Egypt, the most critical component was that of the contribution of the political actors. If the political actors had formed a pact with the understanding that democracy would benefit all parties, they could have overcome the former regime and succeeded at aligning international support. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION................................................................1 B. IMPORTANCE ................................................................................................2 C. LITERATURE REVIEW ...............................................................................3 D. PROBLEM AND HYPOTHESES................................................................10 1. Hypothesis 1: Egypt’s Non-readiness for Democracy ....................10 2. Hypothesis 2: Failure of Political Actors to Form a Pact ...............11 3. Hypothesis 3: The Hostility of the Gulf States toward Democracy and the Limited Support from the International Community .........................................................................................11 4. Hypothesis 4: The Deep State and Dissatisfied Economic Elite ....12 E. METHODS AND SOURCES ........................................................................12 F. THESIS OVERVIEW ...................................................................................12 II. EGYPT’S NON–READINESS FOR DEMOCRACY ............................................15 A. MODERNIZATION THEORY ....................................................................15 B. EGYPT NOT RIPE FOR DEMOCRACY ..................................................17 1. Egypt’s Current Economic Crisis.....................................................18 2. Corruption ..........................................................................................22 3. Liberalism and Extinction of the Middle Class ...............................26 C. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................30 III. FAILURE OF POLITICAL ACTORS TO FORM A PACT ................................31 A. POLITICALACTORS APPROACH ...........................................................31 B. POLITICAL ACTORS .................................................................................33 1. The MB’s Relationship with its Opponents and Commitment to Democracy ......................................................................................34 2. Split between the MB and Secularists ..............................................42 3. Split between the MB and Salafi Al Nour Party .............................45 4. Discrimination against Coptic Christians ........................................48 C. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................50 IV. INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCES ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION .........53 A. AN OVERVIEW ............................................................................................53 B. THE HOSTILITY OF THE GULF STATES TOWARD DEMOCRACY IN EGYPT AND LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ............................................................56 1. The Hostility of the Gulf States toward Democracy .......................57 2. Lack of Support from the International Community .....................65 C. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................71 V. THE DEEP STATE AND DISSATISFIED ECONOMIC ELITE ........................73 A. THE DEEP STATE .......................................................................................75 B. THE BUSINESS ELITE ...............................................................................89 vii C. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................93