DRAFT 2018 Integrated Resource Plan Public Utility District No. 1 of Benton County PREPARED IN COLLABORATION WITH Resolution No. XXXX Contents Chapter 1: Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 1 Obligations and Resources ........................................................................................................................ 1 Preferred Portfolio .................................................................................................................................... 4 Chapter 2: Load Forecast .............................................................................................................................. 6 Chapter 3: Current Resources ....................................................................................................................... 7 Overview of Existing Long-term Purchased Power Agreements ............................................................... 7 Frederickson 1 Generating Station ........................................................................................................ 7 Nine Canyon Wind ................................................................................................................................. 7 White Creek Wind Generation Project .................................................................................................. 8 Packwood Lake Hydro Project ............................................................................................................... 8 Community Solar Projects ..................................................................................................................... 8 Federal Resources .................................................................................................................................. 8 Columbia Generating Station .............................................................................................................. 11 BPA Renewable Energy Resources ...................................................................................................... 11 Load/Resource Balance with Existing Resources .................................................................................... 12 Chapter 4: Policy & Regulation ................................................................................................................... 15 Washington State Related Policies & Regulations .................................................................................. 15 Integrated Resource Planning ............................................................................................................. 15 Energy Independence Act (EIA) ........................................................................................................... 16 Washington State Green House Gas Legislation ................................................................................. 16 Clean Air Rule ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Protect Washington Act (Initiative 1631) ............................................................................................ 18 Oregon Cap and Trade ......................................................................................................................... 19 Oregon Clean Energy Program ............................................................................................................ 19 Oregon Clean Fuels Program ............................................................................................................... 19 Net Metering of Electricity .................................................................................................................. 20 Voluntary Green Power ....................................................................................................................... 20 Renewable Energy System Cost Recovery Program ............................................................................ 20 Federal Policies & Regulations ................................................................................................................ 21 Clean Power Plan ................................................................................................................................. 21 PURPA .................................................................................................................................................. 21 Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC) ............................................................................. 22 Renewable Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) .................................................................................. 23 Chapter 5: Supply Side Resource Costs ....................................................................................................... 24 Resource Alternatives ............................................................................................................................. 24 Conventional Thermal Generation ...................................................................................................... 24 Federal, State, and Local Tax Credits and Incentives .......................................................................... 29 New Supply Side Resources..................................................................................................................... 30 Resources Selected for Additional Analysis ............................................................................................ 32 Chapter 6: Macro Utility Environment: The New Status Quo and Utility Industry Disruptions ................. 34 Fracking ................................................................................................................................................... 34 Coal .......................................................................................................................................................... 35 Renewable Resources ............................................................................................................................. 37 Wind..................................................................................................................................................... 37 Solar ..................................................................................................................................................... 38 Energy Efficiency ..................................................................................................................................... 40 Electric Vehicles ....................................................................................................................................... 41 Energy Storage ........................................................................................................................................ 46 Corporate Renewable Procurement ....................................................................................................... 46 Chapter 7: Capacity Requirements, Energy Storage, and Demand Response ............................................ 47 Peak Load and Capacity Position ............................................................................................................. 47 Peak Load Analysis .................................................................................................................................. 50 Determination of Peak Load for Resource Planning ............................................................................... 51 Resources to Serve Peak Load ................................................................................................................. 56 Chapter 8: Market Simulation ..................................................................................................................... 73 Approach ................................................................................................................................................. 73 Model Structure ...................................................................................................................................... 74 WECC-Wide Forecast ............................................................................................................................... 75 Long-Term Fundamental Simulation ....................................................................................................... 75 Principal Assumptions ............................................................................................................................. 75 WECC Load ........................................................................................................................................... 75 Regional Planning Reserve Margins ..................................................................................................... 77 WECC Renewable Portfolio Standards ................................................................................................ 78 Natural Gas Price ................................................................................................................................. 78 Carbon Pricing ...................................................................................................................................... 79 Capacity Expansion & Retirement ..........................................................................................................