The Dimensions of Displacement Baseline Data for Managing Neighborhood Change in Somerville’s Green Line Corridor Funding provided by the Metro Boston Consortium for Sustainable Communities February 2014 Prepared by Metropolitan Area Planning Council 60 Temple Place, 6th Floor Boston, Massachusetts 02111 617-451-2770 www.mapc.org The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC) is the regional planning agency serving the people who live and work in the 101 cities and towns of Metro Boston. Our mission is to promote smart growth and regional collaboration. We work toward sound municipal management, sustainable land use, protection of natural resources, efficient and affordable transportation, a diverse housing stock, public safety, economic development, an informed public, and equity and opportunity among people of all backgrounds. Acknowledgements Authors Tim Reardon Clay Martin Jessie Partridge MAPC Project Manager Jennifer Raitt, Chief Housing Planner Writing and Editing Assistance Stefanie Shull Local Advisory Partners Dana LeWinter, City of Somerville Director of Housing Meridith Levy, Somerville Community Corporation Wig Zamore and Ellin Reisner, Somerville Transportation Equity Partnership Lynn Weissman, Friends of the Community Path Ina Anderson, Massachusetts Smart Growth Alliance Development of these projections was supported in part by funding from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Partnership for Sustainable Communities, through the Metro Boston Consortium for Sustainable Communities. The substance and findings of the work are dedicated to the public. The author and publisher are solely responsible for the accuracy of the statements and interpretations contained in this publication. Such interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views of the federal government. For more information about the Green Line Extension Project, see the Massachusetts Department of Transportation’s project-specific website at http://www.greenlineextension.org. To learn more about community members’ involvement in shaping the project, visit the Somerville Community Corporation website at www.somervillecdc.org, or the Somerville Transportation Equity Partnership’s (STEP) website at http://www.somervillestep.org/index.html. www.mapc.org/neighborhood-change Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................................................. 4 Community Context ................................................................................................................................................... 7 A City of Renters ................................................................................................................................................... 7 The Past as Potential Future: The Red Line .................................................................................................... 11 Migration and demographic change in Somerville ..................................................................................... 15 Future Housing Demand in Somerville ............................................................................................................ 21 Implications for Displacement Analysis .......................................................................................................... 23 GLX Displacement Risks & Potential Magnitude ............................................................................................... 24 Displacement Risk # 1: Rising Rents ................................................................................................................ 25 Estimating Rent Premiums at Existing Stations .......................................................................................... 25 Estimating Rent Premiums at GLX Stations ................................................................................................ 25 Projecting Rent Increases .............................................................................................................................. 25 From Rent Increases to Renter Burden ....................................................................................................... 26 Displacement Risk #2: Condominium conversions ......................................................................................... 28 Displacement Risk #3: Expiring Affordable Housing .................................................................................. 32 Displacement Risk #4: Property Tax Increases ............................................................................................ 34 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................. 36 References ................................................................................................................................................................ 37 Tracking Neighborhood Change: Benchmark Indicators Demographics and Migration .................................................................................................................................. 2 Economic Diversity ................................................................................................................................................. 2 Racial and Ethnic Diversity .................................................................................................................................. 4 Migration ................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Housing and Households ........................................................................................................................................... 7 Housing Cost Burden ............................................................................................................................................. 7 Families with Children........................................................................................................................................... 8 Equitable Homeownership ................................................................................................................................... 9 Designated Affordable Housing ..................................................................................................................... 10 Transportation ......................................................................................................................................................... 11 Vehicle Ownership and Mileage .................................................................................................................... 11 Commute Mode Share ...................................................................................................................................... 11 Transit Commute Times ...................................................................................................................................... 12 Appendix Methods Used to Estimate Displacement Risk ....................................................................................................... 1 Methods Used to Estimate Displacement Risk from Rising Rents .................................................................. 1 Projecting Rent Increases at GLX Stations ................................................................................................... 1 Weighted Average Method ........................................................................................................................... 1 Linear Regression Method ............................................................................................................................... 2 From Rent Increases to Renter Burden .......................................................................................................... 3 Identifying a ‘Treatment Group’ .................................................................................................................... 3 Data .................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Methods Used to Estimate Displacement Risk from Rising Property Values ............................................... 5 Simple Means .................................................................................................................................................... 6 Linear Regression Method ............................................................................................................................... 6 Data .................................................................................................................................................................... 7 List of Acronyms ......................................................................................................................................................... 8 Executive Summary The Green Line Extension through the City of Somerville will dramatically improve transit mobility for both residents and businesses. A trip to Boston that currently requires multiple transfers and modes will