ON CANADIAN SOVEREIGNTY The Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers Arctic Section Rob Huebert [email protected] Calgary September 21, 2016 Part I: The Big Picture • Increasing international and Canadian debate as to what the Arctic will look like in the future: physical; economic; cultural; and geopolitical • A New Arctic Security Environment is Forming on a Global Basis – What will it look like? • Arctic is increasingly being connected to rest of world • How will this impact Canada? • What does Canada need to do? Issue 3: Continental Shelf Issue 2: Beaufort Sea Issue 4: Hans Island/Lincoln Sea Issue 1: NWP Issue 5: Davis Strait Issue 1: The NWP • Canadian position – Internal Waters • US/(EU position) – Strait used for International Navigation • Issue is over Control of Trans-Polar Shipping Crystal Serenity The Geopolitical Dimension • The core US position on NWP is based on concern with precedent – Strait of Hormuz • But US knows if Northwest Passage is an International Strait there will be security outputs; also International Right of Overflights – Possible future security maritime threat – Freedom of Navigation – Existing Aerospace Threat Issue 2: Beaufort Sea • 1825 St. Petersburg Treaty – UK/Russia • Has been “managed” by Canada and US • Overlaps with numerous issues of importance outside of Arctic • Talks began between US-Canada summer 2011 • Impacts of Norway/Russia settlement Beaufort Sea Dispute Canada - US US Moratorium on Commercial Fishing of the Beaufort Sea- 2009 vs 1984 Western Arctic Claim Inuvialuit Agreement Issue 3: Extended Continental Shelf • UNCLOS article 76 – finished mid – 1970s/officially 1982 • Sovereign rights over soil and subsoil (oil and gas) • Russia 2007+; Canada 2013; Denmark 2014; US ? • Must resolve differences peacefully • Ilulissat Declaration May 2008 Maritime jurisdiction & boundaries in the Arctic www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic Issue 4: Hans Island and Lincoln Sea • Lincoln Sea Dispute – Technical basis – minor impact – Resolved November 28, 2012 • Hans Island – Minor impact – Does not impact maritime Boundary – But illustrates the political and public nature of disputes – Canada and Denmark have de facto division Lincoln Sea Hans Island Gunboat Diplomacy and Hans Island Issue 5: Denmark-Canada Davis Strait • 1973 Boundary Agreement – (Except Hans Islands) • Discovery of geological indicators of oil and gas Cairn Oil Search Geopolitical Impacts • If oil is discovered; and if the find is substantial; and if geological province does extend to Canadian side – what does Canada do • Newfoundland vs Nunavut vs Federal • Resource Development vs Conservation • Independent Greenland • But no oil development now Part II: The Pressure Points • Conflicting Core Russia and US Strategic Interests Increased Tension between NATO and Russia • Russian Security Policy Core Concern – Expansion of NATO to Russian Border Mid- 2000s • Georgia interest in NATO and Russian War 2008 • Ukraine interest in NATO/EU and Russian War 2014 • Growing unrest in Russian population Baltic States • Finland • Sweden Russia Core Strategic Interests and Arctic • Nuclear Stability – Maintenance of Deterrence – Focus on SSBN – Build-up Northern Fleet • Limit Expansion of NATO – Growing interest of Sweden/Finland • Stop/Limit US ABM – Will look to Alaska Growing Military Assertiveness of Russia in Arctic and renewed military strength • 1990’s Period of Extreme Reduction • 2000’s Renewal • Russian State Rearmament Program 2007-15 • Focus on Submarines - 3(+3 building) new Nuclear Missile Subs - 2(+3 building) new attack Subs Yury Dolgoruky US Core Strategic Interest and Arctic • Protect against Attack on US Homeland – North Korea Missile Threat – increase of 14 more interceptors Ft Greely AK • Meet and Contain Rising Power of China (Asian Pivot) – Need to use Alaska as pivot point – China and Arctic Goverance US Arctic Forces • US ABM in Alaska – 26 Interceptors (GMD –Ground-based Mid-Course Defence) Ft. Greely Alaska – 14 more to be added in Alaska after North Korean Launch 2013 • Submarine Forces: • US – Seawolf and Los Angeles Class; Virginia Class • ICEX March 2009 – 2 LA class SSN • ICEX March 2011 – 1 Seawolf and 1 Virginia • ICEX March 2011 – 1 Virginia and 1 LA • ICEX March 2014 – 1 Virginia and 1 LA • ICEX March 2016 – 2 LA Chinese Navy and Arctic • 5 PLAN vessels (People’s Liberation Army Navy) ships off Aleutian Islands Sept 2015 • 3 PLAN vessels (Fleet 152) 1st visit to Sweden, Denmark, Finland Oct 2015 • Will the new Subs (SSN) be arctic capable? PLAN Jinan Source: Diplomat Canada-US: NORAD • 2000s US began to perceive NORAD importance of lessening • Feb 2016 US Commander of NORAD links Russian actions in Syria to Arctic • Modernization of North Warning System • Replacement of CF-18s • Costs for Renewal • Canada’s role in ABM Canada and NATO • Canadian Resistance to the Norwegian Arctic Initiative • Canada has been providing support of NATO’s patrols of Iceland airspace • Canada’s position if Sweden and/or Norway apply • Canada’s relations with independent Greenland Conclusion: The Emerging Arctic Security Regime • Entire Arctic is in a point of Transformation • Many Driving Features change coming from outside region –but Resource Development is leading issue • Circumpolar states are building up their combat capable force for the Arctic – New Equipment – Ice and Combat Capable – New Policies – Unilateral “concern” – New Training Conclusion • Will continue to be a disconnect between rhetoric of cooperation and reality of core security requirements of Russia, US and China • Will result in continued rebuilding of Russian arctic military capability • Will result Canada/US modernize NORAD • Will result in Northern focus of NATO • You follow the ultimate logic……..