December 2012 NOREF Report The threat of growing extremism in Punjab David Hansen Executive summary During the last few years Punjab has between competing bodies at the local level. experienced a deep social crisis in which Islamist Local judiciary, police and politicians often organisations have been able to challenge function as enablers for the extremists. This is the Pakistani authorities’ power – as certain not only troublesome for Pakistan: rising radical Islamist organisations, including extremist Islamist tendencies can be witnessed in Norway ones, increasingly are filling the role of welfare among certain Norwegian-Pakistanis. This policy providers to the people. Punjab is experiencing brief describes some initial findings regarding the a shift from the traditional Barelvi (Sufi) Islam potential consequences of Punjab’s social crisis, towards more orthodox interpretations of the its patterns of extremism and the reorientation faith – often in quite radical variants. Some of the of religion in the province. It argues that in most important extremist Islamist organisations addition to being problematic for Pakistan, this instrumental in this reorientation have become development may have an adverse effect on involved in criminal activity and in settling scores diaspora communities living in the West. David Hansen holds a PhD in South Asian Studies from the University of Oslo and is currently director of the Pakistan Programme at the Centre for International and Strategic Analysis. He has more than a decade of fieldwork experience on Pakistan and is the author of Radical Rhetoric – Moderate Behavior: Perceptions of Islam, Shari’a, and the Radical Dimension in Urban Pakistan (Tapir Academic Press, 2012). David Hansen The threat of growing extremism in Punjab Introduction situation hit an all-time low during the spring of 2012, causing deep resentment, social anxieties, Pakistan’s Punjab province is currently demonstrations, and even occasional clashes experiencing a social crisis that, aided by a between the populace and authorities. During reorientation of religion, has indirectly led to a the summer of 2012 the poor energy situation rise in religious extremism and criminal activity. meant that for certain areas in Punjab drastic Throughout the summer and into the fall of 2012, load-shedding programmes with power cuts of several large-scale attacks on governmental up to 20 hours a day were the norm. This most institutions occurred and there was a massive certainly causes further resentment among the increase in violent sectarianism. This has the people, severely disrupts local businesses’ immediate potential to affect both development abilities to operate and, not least, further and stability within Pakistan, and might also have diminishes trust in and the legitimacy of the a spillover effect for diaspora communities living central government in Islamabad. Adding to this, in the West such as Norwegian-Pakistanis living Punjab has experienced a fast-growing process in Norway. of religious radicalisation since 9/11 and has been affected by Pakistan’s controversial role in This policy brief addresses issues that may have the so-called “war on terror” during the last couple an impact on Norway’s strategic goals in Pakistan of years in particular. In the midst of this, radical in light of the recent developments in Punjab. and extremist Islamist movements have gained The focus on Punjab is of particular importance enormous ground in Punjab, and while terrorist for Norway, as a majority (perhaps as many attacks have declined, violent sectarianism and as 85-90%) of Norwegian-Pakistanis hail from crime are on the rise. that province. The high degree of mobility and the increasing degree of (Internet) information The human security situation in south Punjab is exchange will also have an impact on Norwegian- dire and among the worst in the country, leading Pakistanis. to massive recruitment into the extremists’ cadres. The situation in central parts of Punjab, however, has largely been ignored, as it has been thought Inability of the Pakistani to be stable, under control and (more) secure, because educational levels and other human authorities and the Islamist security indicators have been stronger there than response in most other parts of the country. Yet in the last couple of years parts of central Punjab, including The current political situation in Pakistan is areas from which Norwegian-Pakistanis hail adversely affected by the authorities’ inability (e.g. Faisalabad, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Jhelum, – or, worse, unwillingness – to fight organised Kharian, Lala Musa, Mandi Bahuddin, Sargodha, crime, violent extremism and terrorism in their Sialkot, etc.), have experienced a significant shift various forms. A corrupt judiciary and police towards non-violent and violent extremism alike. force, and Pakistan’s inability to provide a Religious minorities and Sufi shrines are under sustainable, predictable and stable economy constant attack, Barelvi and Deobandi factions are also problems. For quite some time the clash with each other, Sunni and Shia groups Pakistani authorities have been unable to are engaged in sectarian violence, and jihadi maintain sufficient amounts of energy for private organisations are recruiting for their cadres. households and businesses dependent on it for These areas are increasingly experiencing radical continuous production. Thus, in recent years few and even extremist interpretations of Islam and domestic investments have been made and even may thus be potential hotbeds of the further less foreign direct investment (FDI) finds its way radicalisation of Punjab and elsewhere. This may to Pakistan. Indeed, some analysts maintain that ultimately pose a danger to Norway or Norwegian both domestic investment and FDI are at a 40- interests in Pakistan, as there are tangible year low.1 Moreover, the gas and petrol supply signs of a reorientation towards more extremist interpretations of Islam among Norwegian- 1 See, for instance, Kamal Monno, “Competitiveness and invest- Pakistani Muslims in Norway. However, the ment”, The Nation (Pakistan), February 8th 2012. - 2 - David Hansen The threat of growing extremism in Punjab Pakistani authorities seem to do little but deny the development is in part linked to the poor economic presence of extremists in Punjab. The situation is situation in the country, in particular that of south thus ripe for further social discontent and crisis Punjab. In addition to this, extremists have taken in the area that may result in a security threat in greater control of this criminality. The diminished Norway and/or against Norwegian state and non- influence of al-Qaeda may have led to decreased state interests in Pakistan. levels of funding for its extremist affiliates in Pakistan. Indeed, extremists like LeJ, Tehreek-e- At the same time, where the state fails on its Taliban – the so-called Pakistani Taliban – and promise to deliver essential services to the public, others often engage in violent activities to finance Islamist (especially Deobandi- and Wahhabi- their own terrorist activities. Also, in the last two inspired) organisations gain ground and to a years extremists have increasingly been involved certain extent fill the role of providers of welfare in several violent robberies, assassinations and services to the people. Included among these kidnappings for ransom. This trend is not limited organisations are a few banned jihadi outfits, such to Punjab alone, although the situation there may as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Lashkar-e-Tayyiba be somewhat different to that in other provinces, (LeT), Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP), and of course the because the province has mostly been spared controversial parent organisation of LeT, Jama’at such incidents in the past. Another troubling ud-Dawa (JuD). Many of these organisations trend is the involvement of some extremists in have their own sub-organisations that provide ancient family feuds – in terms of which opposing welfare services similar to those of the Muslim groups and families “outsource” harassment Brotherhood in Egypt or those that Hamas runs in and even targeted killings to certain extremist Gaza and the Palestinian territories. Their welfare groups. Norwegian-Pakistanis are also known services range from offering clothing, food, gifts for “settling scores” in Pakistan. There is thus a and other items during ceremonial holidays to potential for some extremist involvement in their running religious seminaries (madrassas, or in vendettas. In Punjab extremists regularly receive Arabic, madaris) for students who otherwise support from local politicians and police, who are cannot afford regular schooling. In some areas of widely seen as being corrupt. The militants are Punjab these jihadi groups have acquired political thus mostly left alone to carry out these heinous power, exert a great deal of influence in local acts. The following extract from a recent article politics and can even affect judicial proceedings. in a Pakistani monthly magazine describes the The extremist – often militant – Islamists are increasing linkages between criminality and challenging the federally sanctioned power extremism in Punjab: vested with the provincial authorities and thus also challenge the concept of “good governance”. The situation in Punjab is particularly worrisome Islamists have risen to the challenge and have because of the increasing involvement of provided comfort for people, who are increasingly banned militant groups such as Lashkar-e-