Appendix 2: Environmental Baseline Topic 1: Climatic Factors massif results in a climate that is less the weather station also indicate that the “In recent decades, changes in climate oceanic, and therefore drier, than the west National Park is experiencing a decrease in have caused impacts on natural and of Scotland. The mountains exert a the number of days of air frost and an human systems on all continents and noticeable rain shadow effect that reduced increase in annual rainfall (Figure 5 and across the oceans.” the amount of rainfall on the eastern side of Figure 6). This is consistent with broader Intergovernmental Panel on Climate the country. trends across Scotland. Change (2014). Scotland is currently experiencing climate Climate Change projections are available change, which owing to the global emission from The UK Climate Projections Considering the effects of climate change of greenhouse gasses, is likely to continue (UKCP09) website, which is the leading requires a broader outlook than the area into the future. The effects of this are likely source of climate information for the UK covered by the Strategy. Therefore, this to include: and its regions. Probabilistic projections are section considers Climate change across available for high, medium and low emission the National Park as a whole. hotter, drier summers; scenarios at resolutions as fine as 25km2. It milder, wetter autumns and winters. is possible therefore to analyse data for the Scotland has a temperate climate with cool increased frequency and intensity of summers and mild winters. As a whole it is extreme rainfall; and area in which Braemar sits (Grid Box No. influenced by predominantly westerly reduced snowfall. 612) (see Figure 7 and Figure 8). It is depressions alternating with less frequent recognised that this is a blunt proxy for the The 20th and 21st centuries have already settled periods. A range of factors, including National Park as a whole, however it is seen a rise in average maximum and topography, latitude and altitude, affect useful in when taken together with the minimum temperatures throughout these weather systems at a more local level. historic climate data taken from the Scotland. This trend is reflected in the Braemar Weather Station. How this change Rainfall is spread throughout the year but Cairngorms National Park, as demonstrated relates to the UK as a whole is presented in there are regional differences. For example, by historical data provided by the Braemar Figure 9, Figure 10 and Figure 11. the easterly position of the Cairngorms weather station (Figure 4). Records from 59 Figure 5 Days of frost at Braemar Weather Station (Met Office, 2015). Figure 4 Maximum and minimum annual temperatures at Braemar Weather Station (Met Office, 2015). 100 120 140 160 -15 -10 10 15 20 25 20 40 60 80 -5 0 5 0 1959 1959 1964 1969 1964 1974 1979 Days of air frost 1969 1984 1989 1974 1994 Maximum temperature °C 1999 1979 2004 2009 1984 2014 60 Figure 6 Total Rainfall at Braemar Weather Station (Met Office, 2015). 1000 1200 1400 200 400 600 800 0 Minimum temperature °C 1959 1989 1964 1969 1994 1974 Total rainfall (mm) 1979 1999 1984 1989 2004 1994 1999 2009 2004 2009 2014 0.3% greater than in 2009. 2059 is projected to beAnnual higher, precipitation at between around 2030 and should be noted that thisas is summer but and a winter snapshot. decreasesrelatively by small 2050, net it annual increase,Although as precipitation well rates only show a probability level) for Braemar isscenario, for the a: central estimate (50% by 2050, under the mediumIn emissions summary from the benchmark of 2009, precipitation. 2% decrease in mean winter precipitation, and a 13.5% decrease in mean summer precipitation, but with a 0.07% increase in mean annual temperature, 2.1°C increase in mean winter temperature, 2.7°C increase in mean summer temperature, 2.4°C increase in mean annual data. loss or damage directly orLaboratory. indirectly caused These to organisations accept any no person responsibility orlicence for body from any by the inaccuracies reason Met or of, Office, omissions or NewcastleEnvironment, in arising University, Food the out University and data, of of, Rural nor East any Affairs for Anglia use (Defra)© any and of and Crown Proudman Department this Copyright Oceanographic for 2009. Energy and The Climate UKFigure Change Climate (DECC) 8 Projections under Central data estimate have for been mean made change available in by precipitation the for Department Grid for Box No. 612 (Braemar area). Figure 7 Central estimate for mean change in annual temperature for Grid Box No. 612 (Braemar area). Change in Precipitation Rate Change in Mean Temperature (%) (°C) 3 4 0.05 0.15 0.25 0 1 2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0 2010 - 2038 2020 - 2049 2030 - 2069 2040 -2069 2050 - 2079 2060 - 2089 2070 - 2099 High Emissions Scenario High Emissions Scenario 2010 - 2038 2020 - 2049 2030 - 2069 2040 -2069 2050 - 2079 2060 - 2089 2070 - 2099 61 Medium Emissions Scenario Medium Emissions Scenario Time Period Time Period Low Emissions Scenario Low Emissions Scenario North Cairngorms National Park 0 to 0.5 °C 0.5 to 1 °C 1 to 1.5 °C 1.5 to 2 °C 2 to 2.5 °C 2.5 to 3 °C 3 to 3.5 °C 3.5 to 4 °C Scale: 1:10,000,000 Figure 9 Mean annual temperature increase 2020s. Figure 10 Mean annual temperature increase 2040s. Figure 11 Mean annual temperature increase 2080s. Medium emissions scenario, central estimate. Medium emissions scenario, central estimate. Medium emissions scenario, central estimate. © Crown Copyright 2009. The UK Climate Projections data have been made available by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) under licence from the Met Office, Newcastle University, University of East Anglia and Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory. These organisations accept no responsibility for any inaccuracies or omissions in the data, nor for any loss or damage directly or indirectly caused to any person or body by reason of, or arising out of, any use of this data. Reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of HMSO. © Crown copyright and database right 2015. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100040965 Cairngorms National Park Authority. 62 It should also be noted that the use of the < 1 medium emissions scenario combined with 1 to 3 North the central probability projection 3 to 10 represents a relatively conservative picture 10 to 32 of the area’s possible future climate. 32 to 100 Adjusting these variables, particularly the emissions scenario, can lead to more 100 to 1,995 serious projections, which at the time of > 1,995 writing cannot be discounted. Even with the conservative estimates provided in this summary an annual increase in mean Glenmore and temperature of 2.4°C would leave the Cairngorm National Park with some serious challenges to face. The causes of climate change are clearly greater than local in scale and there is a strong global consensus that a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is needed to avoid some significantly adverse effects. The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 has Scale: introduced legislation to reduce Scotland’s 1:700,000 greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% Figure 12 Carbon Dioxide (as Carbon) Emissions in tonnes for the Cairngorms National Park in 2012. by 2050 against a 1990 baseline. In recent Reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of HMSO. © Crown copyright and database right 2015. years, increasing emphasis has been placed All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100040965 Cairngorms National Park Authority. on the role of regional bodies and local government in contributing to energy 63 efficiency improvements, and hence emissions in the UK, accounting for around attributing the emissions of the LAs that reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. It is 82% in 2012 (Department of Energy and cover the National Park’s area to the clear therefore that the Strategy has a role Climate Change, 2014). Annualised data for National Park itself. It is recognised that this in meeting this target. the UK’s national parks is not available and is a blunt means of estimation, particularly therefore to get an approximation of the in terms of commercial and transport data; Estimates of carbon dioxide emissions for Cairngorms National Park’s contribution indeed estimates based on estimates should Local Authority (LA) areas for 2005-2012 (Figure 12) further assumptions need to always be treated with caution. However, in are available from The Department for be made. the absence of a detailed carbon-audit, the Energy and Climate Change (DECC). figures presented in Table 7 offers a ‘best- Carbon dioxide emissions contribute the Mid-year population estimates have been guess’ and a generalised baseline for greatest proportion of total greenhouse gas used as a proxy for proportionally measurement over the plan period. Table 7 Estimated CO2 Emissions for the Cairngorms National Park. Based on Department of Energy and Climate Change (2014). Industry and Population Domestic (kt Road Transport 2 Per Capita Year Commercial (kt Total (kt CO2) (mid-year CO2) (kt CO2) Emissions (t) CO2) estimate) 2005 66.9 58.9 48.8 174.0 17,264 10.7 2006 67.6 60.4 49.5 177.5 17,590 10.8 2007 66.9 59.6 50.8 177.2 17,835 10.6 2008 67.6 59.6 48.0 175.2 18,024 10.3 2009 59.1 55.3 47.3 161.7 18,061 9.4 2010 66.0 59.8 47.3 173.0 18,366 9.8 2011 60.8 52.0 46.5 159.4 18,461 8.9 2012 60.0 55.6 45.6 161.1 18,583 8.9 2 Figures may not sum due to rounding.