Institute of Water and Energy Sciences (Including Climate Change) SIMULATION OF LAND USE CHANGES AND IMPACTS ON THE WATER BALANCE OF AN UNCONFINED AQUIFER CASE STUDY: SAISS AQUIFER, MOROCCO Muhammudu Mukaya Date: 04/09/2017 Master in Water, Policy track President: Prof. Joseph Kajima Mulengi Supervisor: Prof. Abdelkader El Garouani External Examiner: Dr. Nadia Badr Internal Examiner: Dr. Karima Benhattab Academic Year: 2016-2017 Simulation of LUC Impacts on Water Balance Declaration DECLARATION I, Mukaya Muhammudu, do hereby declare that the thesis entitled “Simulation of land use changes and impacts on the water balance of an unconfined aquifer (The Case of Saiss aquifer, Morocco)”, submitted by me in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of Master of Science in Water Policy of Pan African University, Institute of Water and Energy Sciences (including Climate Change), PAUWES is original work and it has not been presented for the award of any other degree, diploma, fellowship or other similar titles, of any other University or Institution. MUKAYA MUHAMMUDU Signature Date: 3rd September 2017 i Simulation of LUC Impacts on Water Balance Certification CERTIFICATION I undersigned, Prof. El Garouani Abdelkader, Guest Lecturer at the Pan African University Institute of Water and Energy Sciences including Climate Change (PAUWES), and permanent lecturer at the Faculty of Sciences and Techniques of Fez (FST), Morocco; certify that Mr. Mukaya Muhammudu conducted his Master Thesis research under my supervision. Certified further, that this master thesis entitled “Simulation of land use changes and impacts on the water balance of an unconfined aquifer (The Case of Saiss aquifer, Morocco)” is an authentic work of Mr. Mukaya Muhammudu who carried out the research under my guidance. Signature Date: 4th September 2017. ii Simulation of LUC Impacts on Water Balance Acknowledgement ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My first and highest gratitude is owed to the Almighty Allah whose faithfulness has seen me through the challenging situations of my academic life. I thank my supervisor prof. EL GAROUANI Abdelkader, from the Faculty of Science and Techniques, Fez (FST-Fez), for the support criticism and all help given during the entire course of research. My sincere gratitude to African Union and the African Union Commission (AUC), the Germany Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for awarding me the Scholarship that enabled me do this postgraduate degree. I would also like to express my sincere gratitude to: The Jury members: Prof. Joseph Kajima Mulengi, Prof. Abdelkader El Garouani, Dr. Nadia Badr and Dr. Karima Benhattab; The Laboratory of Geo-Resources and Environment of the Faculty of Sciences and Techniques of Fez; Mr. Kamal Aharik, PhD student of the Geo–Resources and Environment Laboratory for his assistance and help; West African Science Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, Competence centre for the technical skills I gained during the internship that shaped my research. iii Simulation of LUC Impacts on Water Balance Table of Content TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ............................................................................................................................. i CERTIFICATION .......................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................... iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... ix ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................................... xi ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................. xii RESUME ..................................................................................................................................... xiii Chapter 1: GENERAL INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 1 1.1. Background ..................................................................................................................... 2 1.2. Statement of the Problem ................................................................................................ 4 1.3. Research questions and Objectives ................................................................................. 5 1.3.1 General research question. .......................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 Specific research questions ......................................................................................... 5 1.3.3 General objective ........................................................................................................ 5 1.3.4 Specific Objectives. .................................................................................................... 5 1.4. Significance of the Study ................................................................................................ 6 1.5. Scope and Limitation of the Study.................................................................................. 6 1.6. Study Structure................................................................................................................ 6 1.6.1 Pre-field work ............................................................................................................. 6 iv Simulation of LUC Impacts on Water Balance Table of Content 1.6.2 Field work ................................................................................................................... 7 1.6.3 Post-field work ............................................................................................................ 7 1.7. Thesis Outline ................................................................................................................. 7 Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................... 9 2.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 10 2.2. Hydrology, Hydrological Cycle and Water Balance .................................................... 10 2.2.1. Hydrology ................................................................................................................. 10 2.2.2. Hydrological cycle .................................................................................................... 10 2.2.3. Water balance............................................................................................................ 11 2.2.4. The Water balance and principle of Conservation .................................................... 12 2.2 Aquifers............................................................................................................................. 13 2.3 The Concept of Land Use Change .................................................................................... 15 2.4 Impacts of Land Use Change on Water Balance Components ......................................... 16 2.5.1 Evapotranspiration (ET) and Moisture ..................................................................... 16 2.5.2 Surface runoff ........................................................................................................... 19 2.5.3 Stream flow and flood ............................................................................................... 20 2.6 Patterns of Land Use Change in Morocco ........................................................................ 21 2.7 Hydrological Models ........................................................................................................ 22 2.7.1 HYPE ........................................................................................................................ 24 2.7.2 PRMS ........................................................................................................................ 24 2.7.3 Hec-HMS .................................................................................................................. 25 2.7.4 SWAT ....................................................................................................................... 25 2.7.5 MIKE-SHE ............................................................................................................... 25 2.7.6 Water balance model (WetSpass Model) .................................................................. 25 2.8 Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing ......................................... 27 2.9 ArcGIS .............................................................................................................................. 28 Chapter 3: STUDY AREA DESCRIPTION................................................................................. 30 v Simulation of LUC Impacts on Water Balance Table of Content 3.1 Location and Limits .......................................................................................................... 31 3.2 Human geography and socio-economic context