UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED i SOMALIA COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT AND COOPERATION STRATEGY (CDCS) DECEMBER 2020 - DECEMBER 2025 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE UNCLASSIFIED APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE UNCLASSIFIED TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE COUNTRY STRATEGIC SUMMARY CONTEXT APPROACH 01 04 08 17 RESULTS FRAMEWORK NARRATIVE iii 33 MONITORING, EVALUATION AND 35 ANNEX LEARNING APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE UNCLASSIFIED iv APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE UNCLASSIFIED EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Following a sustained period of political and to launching Somalia on its journey to self- institutional progress since the establishment reliance (J2SR). of the Federal Government in 2012, the coming few years represent a critical period The goal and DO statements emphasize that for Somalia to continue its transition out Somalia is only just beginning its journey to of fragility and protracted crises. Somalia’s self-reliance. While Somalia's J2SR Country federal and state governments have increased Roadmap (Annex 1) lacks sufficient data, their capacity and legitimacy. The country is existing data points and secondary analyses making progress towards establishing capable reveal that Somalia ranks below most and accountable armed forces and police. And countries in both commitment and capacity Somalia is nearing debt relief as a result of metrics. Data reveals that Somalia lags in years of sustained economic reform. Despite freedom of expression, rule of law, and has a this progress, al-Shabaab remains one of the difficult business environment. Although data world’s largest and most dangerous violent indicate constraints on freedom, Somalia is extremist organizations. The country also rated as having minimal threats to religious remains in a complex humanitarian emergency, freedom per the International Religious having suffered a large-scale famine in 2011/12 Freedom report. Somalia also has a high and again experienced a near famine situation poverty rate, lacks transparency, and has in 2017. In light of this progress and mindful of low net school enrollment. Despite such the challenges, USAID developed a five-year performance, the country has maintained (2020-25) strategy that aims to see Somalia increasing, though still limited, commitment and its people more effectively withstand in the security sector and on economic 1 disruptions and increasingly drive their reform. USAID’s strategy will be guided Somalia remains own development. by J2SR principles, including leveraging the in a complex country’s dynamic private sector and building humanitarian Preventing and countering violent extremism the capacity of institutions foundational for emergency, is the United States’ most important strategic Somalia to one day finance its own devel- interest in Somalia. In this strategy, the Mission opment agenda. having suffered has prioritized addressing the conditions that a large-scale allow violent extremism to take root and Throughout this CDCS, USAID articulates famine in spread by focusing on grievances arising from the value-add of a development program 2011/12 poor governance, the absence of justice, and to the U.S. Government’s national interests and again exclusion from political, social, and economic in Somalia. The Mission proposes to utilize opportunities. In addition to violent extremism, development tools, as part of the wider U.S. experienced recurrent humanitarian crises have led to an Government Somalia strategy, to prevent and a near famine unsustainable humanitarian caseload in Somalia. counter violent extremism and build resilience situation in The Mission has developed a strategy to build to mitigate the chronic humanitarian needs. 2017. individual, household, and community resilience The strategy further commits the Mission to shocks and stresses. These priorities will to target socially marginalized Somalis in a be realized through the achievement of two defined geographic focal zone and ensures that development objectives (DO): (1) Targeted USAID works toward shared humanitarian local institutions govern in a more legitimate and development objectives. USAID’s strategy manner, diminishing influence of violent contributes significantly to and is aligned with extremist organizations and (2) Enable the following four goals of the U.S. Embassy marginalized Somalis to more effectively Integrated Country Strategy (ICS) for Somalia withstand shocks and stresses. Making to: (1) establish a robust, permanent U.S. progress on these two issues is essential Mission presence in Mogadishu to enable U.S. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE UNCLASSIFIED Integrated Country Strategy (ICS) goals Robust, Permanent U.S. Overcoming Building Durable Expanding Mission Presence in Violent Foundations for Inclusive Mogadishu to Enable Opposition to the a More Stable, Economic U.S. Policy Leadership State Democratic, and Growth and Engagement with Prosperous Somalia Improving Somalis Service Delivery 2 policy leadership engagement with Somalis; (2) overcoming Somalia’s dynamic context. Additionally, over the decades violent opposition to the State; (3) build durable foundations of instability in Somalia, there have been positive efforts for a more stable, democratic, and prosperous Somalia; and to reestablish local governance resulting in relatively stable (4) expand inclusive economic growth and improving service pockets of administrative and security order. Challenges will delivery. These goals are aligned with the U.S. National continue to persist, but the perseverance and ambition of Security Strategy, USAID/State Joint Strategic Plan, and the the Somali people creates opportunity to further progress. U.S. Africa Strategy. USAID will partner with Somalia on its journey to self- reliance so that Somalia and its people more effectively This strategy also recognizes existing opportunities and withstand disruptions and increasingly drive their strengths in Somalia. One example is Somalia’s resilient and own development. dynamic private sector which has continuously adapted to APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE UNCLASSIFIED RESULTS FRAMEWORK GOAL: BY 2025, SOMALIA AND ITS PEOPLE MORE EFFECTIVELY WITHSTAND DISRUPTIONS AND INCREASINGLY DRIVE THEIR OWN DEVELOPMENT DO 1: Targeted local institutions govern in a more DO 2: Enable marginalized legitimate manner, diminishing Somalis to more effectively influence of VEOs withstand shocks and stresses 3 1.1: Political and economic 2.1: Governing institutions more governance institutions are effectively plan for and respond perceived as more fair to shocks and stresses 1.2: Marginalized citizens’ access to inclusive social 2.2: Livelihoods of marginalized and economic opportunities populations are strengthened increased and diversified 2.3: Social capital of 1.3: Communities more marginalized populations is effectively address grievances strengthened and manage local conflict 2.4: Human capital of women strengthened APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE UNCLASSIFIED II. COUNTRY CONTEXT Overview The Somali population is approximately 15 million people, with 2.6 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and nearly 2 million Somalis in the diaspora. Somalia’s population growth rate is nearly 3 percent, with little indication of a decline as the average fertility rate is 6.9 children per woman. Somalia also has a predominantly young population with over 80 percent estimated to be under the age of 35.1 Urbanization is quickly intensifying at an estimated annual rate of 4 percent,2 and Somalis are almost equally split between urban (45 percent) and rural areas (55 percent). Somalia remains one of the poorest countries in Africa, with nearly seven out of ten Somalis living in poverty3 and per capita annual income estimated at approximately $315 in 2018 (World Bank 2019).4 Somalia’s economy runs largely on agriculture and 4 livestock which account for 65 percent of both the GDP and workforce employment. Somalia’s health system continues to suffer from a lack of resources and adequate data to inform planning. This is particularly notable in reproductive health, an area largely dependent on the adequacy and availability of health services.5 Somalia’s complex education landscape also faces immense challenges. Only half of the population is literate, and in virtually all age- groups women have less educational attainment than men. Only about 33 percent of children aged 6-13 are enrolled in primary school. Limited access, lack of qualified teachers, poor school infrastructure, and general insecurity are some of the major challenges for education.6 1 The Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development. Somalia National Development Plan 2020 to 2024. 2019 2 World Bank Group. Somali Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment. 2019 3 World Bank Group. Somali Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment. 2019 4 Directorate of National Statistics, Federal Government of Somalia. The Somali Health and Demographic Survey 2020 5 Directorate of National Statistics, Federal Government of Somalia. The Somali Health and Demographic Survey 2020 6 Federal Republic of Somalia. Somalia Economic Update: Building Education to Boost Human Capital. August 2019. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE UNCLASSIFIED Chronic instability in the late 1980s and and, according to the Federal Government of the collapse of the Somali state in 1991 has Somalia’s ninth National Development Plan resulted in three decades of warfare and (NDP-9) 2020-2024, women “generate up to violence in Somalia. The decades of instability, 70 percent of household income.”8 Women intercommunal conflict, and humanitarian are critical to