July 2021 Monthly Forecast 1 Overview Overview 1 In Hindsight: the UNSC and Climate Change In July, France will have the presidency of the African issues anticipated in July include meet- 3 Status Update Security Council. Meetings are expected to be ings on: held in person this month. • DRC, on progress towards implementing the 5 Syria As a signature event of its presidency, France mandate of the UN Organization Stabilization 6 Democratic Republic of has chosen to convene a ministerial level brief- Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO); the Congo ing on preserving humanitarian space under the • West Africa and the Sahel, the biannual brief- 7 West Africa and the protection of civilians agenda item. Jean-Yves Le ing on the UN Office in West Africa and the Sahel Drian, France’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Sahel (UNOWAS); 9 Colombia Affairs, will chair the meeting. Secretary-Gener- • Libya, a ministerial-level briefing chaired by 11 Yemen al António Guterres; Robert Mardini, the Direc- the French Minister for Europe and Foreign 12 Libya tor-General of the International Committee of Affairs, Jean Yves Le Drian, on the UN Sup- the Red Cross; and Lucile Grosjean, the Del- port Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and recent 13 Cyprus egate Director of Advocacy at Action Against developments; and 15 Preserving Hunger, are the anticipated briefers. • Darfur, on the drawdown and closure of Humanitarian Space The Council is planning to vote on a resolution the UN/AU Hybrid Operation in Darfur 16 Lebanon to renew the cross-border humanitarian assis- (UNAMID). 17 UNRCCA tance delivery mechanism in Syria, which expires The Council also expects to vote on a reso- 19 Sudan on 10 July. There will also be the monthly meet- lution renewing the mandate of the 2127 CAR ings on the political, humanitarian and chemical sanctions regime and its panel of experts. 20 The Middle East, weapons tracks in Syria. A meeting is anticipated on Colombia, focus- including the Palestinian Question Several other Middle East issues are scheduled ing on the UN Verification Mission and recent this month: developments. 21 Central African Republic • Yemen, the monthly meeting on developments, The mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force as well as the renewal of the mandate of the in Cyprus (UNFICYP) is expected to be renewed. UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agree- Earlier in the month, members will meet on ment (UNMHA); UNFICYP and recent developments in Cyprus. • Lebanon, a meeting on the implementation of The semi-annual meeting on the UN Region- resolution 1701 (2006), which called for a ces- al Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central sation of hostilities between the Shi’a militant Asia (UNRCCA) is also anticipated in July. group Hezbollah and Israel; and The Council will also be closely watching • “The situation in the Middle East, including developments related to Tigray, the Grand Ethi- the Palestinian question”, the quarterly open opian Renaissance Dam and Myanmar. Meetings debate. on these and other issues are possible. In Hindsight: The UN Security Council and Climate Change 30 June 2021 This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. In recent years, few thematic issues addressed by emphasising the need for risk assessments and the Security Council have aroused as much atten- risk management strategies for climate change For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please tion, or controversy, as climate change and secu- and ecological changes, and other factors, by the subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” rity. While it is not a formal agenda item, climate UN and host governments in resolutions, particu- series at securitycouncilreport.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. change and security has increasingly become a larly in Africa but also in other regions. And there focus of signature events spearheaded by Council are discussions among members about pursu- presidents. More and more, the Council is also ing a thematic resolution on climate and security, Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2021 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: The UN Security Council and Climate Change building on the 2011 presidential statement on this issue, which political sensitivities around this issue. noted the importance of including conflict analysis and contex- In 2020, ten members of the Security Council (Belgium, the tual information on the possible security implications of climate Dominican Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Niger, Tunisia, change in the Secretary-General’s reports in relevant cases. St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the United Kingdom, and Viet In June 2021, Security Council Report (SCR) published its first Nam)—established the IEG of Members of the Security Council research report on this issue, The UN Security Council and Climate on Climate and Security, which is designed to help the Council Change, which traces the evolution of Council engagement on this to develop a more systematic approach to climate-related secu- topic. From the very first time the Council took up the matter, dur- rity risks. The current co-chairs of the IEG are Ireland and Niger. ing an April 2007 open debate, to the present, it has spurred divi- Germany and Nauru are the co-founders and co-chairs of the sions among members. Addressing climate change does not fit into Group of Friends on Climate and Security. Initially consisting of conventional notions of international peace and security; the evi- 27 UN member states, the Group has more than doubled in size dence of direct linkages between climate change and conflict is con- since its establishment on 1 August 2018. As at 7 May 2021, it tested. A number of member states emphasise that climate change is consisted of 57 member states—representing all five UN regional essentially a sustainable development issue that should be dealt with groups (the African Group, the Asia-Pacific Group, the East- by other UN entities, which have the expertise to address the issue ern European Group, the Western European and Others Group, and are more broadly representative of the UN’s wider member- and the Latin American and Caribbean Group)—and the EU. It ship. As well, the concern has been expressed, especially by Russia, has two standing agenda items: one on the work of the Climate- that climate change is often a distraction from the core work of the Security Mechanism, and a second on the work of and dynamics Council, as there are other more fundamental drivers of conflict in in the Security Council, including the activities of the Informal cases on the agenda. Expert Group of Members of the Security Council on Climate At the same time, other members have made persuasive argu- and Security. ments in support of Council engagement. These countries often In light of the Council’s significant engagement on climate- emphasise that factors such as drought, water scarcity, food inse- security matters, our report outlines ways in which the Council curity, desertification, and displacement that are caused by or may choose to proceed on this issue in the future. exacerbated by climate change are conflict “risk multipliers”. Efforts are likely to continue by proponents of this issue to Rather than viewing the Security Council as a usurper of the integrate climate-security language—for example, calls for risk authority of other UN organs, they believe that the different parts assessments and risk management strategies on the impacts of cli- of the UN system, including the Security Council, need to work mate change and other environmental factors—into Council out- together to confront the security challenges of climate change. comes (that is, resolutions and presidential statements) on spe- They frequently see this issue as part of the Council’s conflict cific countries and regions. This year climate change language has prevention work, and in more recent years, in the context of its already been included for the first time in cases outside of Africa, peacebuilding agenda. They also tend to view climate change including in resolution 2561 on Cyprus and resolution 2576 on as a “human security” issue, whereby the negative impacts on Iraq. In negotiating outcomes, efforts to consult host govern- people’s livelihoods and human welfare can heighten the risk of ments regarding climate-related security tasks, as was done in future conflict. the case of resolution 2576, are helpful in reinforcing the notion At present, there are 12 members of the Security Council— that the UN is working cooperatively with them on such matters. Estonia, France, Ireland, Kenya, Mexico, Niger, Norway, Saint Some members may strive to incorporate climate-security lan- Vincent and the Grenadines, Tunisia, the UK, the US, and Viet guage into the operative part of resolutions on peace operations Nam—that support the Council’s climate-security work with with greater consistency, as such references are most frequently varying degrees of enthusiasm. Three members—China, India made in the preambular parts of resolutions. Field presences are and Russia—have concerns about the Council’s engagement on likely to execute climate-related tasks if they are referenced in the the issue. The major change this year in Council dynamics is operative section—that is, where mandates are outlined. In addi- that the US is a supporter of a Council role on climate and secu- tion, including climate-security language in the operative sections rity matters, whereas it was not during the previous presidential could provide a stronger basis for allocating more resources to administration (January 2017 to January 2021). such tasks on the ground. Various institutional arrangements, which have been developed Another option is for the Security Council to make greater since 2018, support the UN’s work on climate change and secu- use of the advisory role of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) rity; particularly notable among these are the Climate-Security by soliciting its input more frequently, including in country- or Mechanism (CSM), the Group of Friends on Climate and Secu- region-specific cases where climate change is a security concern.