Systems Analysis of Social Resilience against Volcanic Risks: Case Studies of Mt. Merapi, Indonesia and Mt. Sakurajima, Japan by Saut Aritua Hasiholan Sagala A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Engineering Supervised by Prof. Norio Okada DEPARTMENT OF URBAN MANAGEMENT GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING Kyoto University August, 2009 Acknowledgements This thesis has benefitted from collaboration with and contribution by many people. Therefore, I want to thank a number of people for their assistance while I was preparing for this thesis and completing my doctoral study in Kyoto University (KU). First of all, I would like to express my gratitude to Prof Norio Okada, my PhD advisor, who has provided a lot of important ideas for the completion of my PhD research. His excellent experiences in research fields and ways of building networks have become my source of inspiration. Finally, Prof Okada has also kindly recommended me to the scholarship provided by Monbukagakusho under Kyoto University - International Doctoral Program which funded my study in Kyoto. The next person I would like to thank is Dr. Muneta Yokomatsu, who are very kind and friendly, but at the same time has been the role model of how a real researcher should be. I have gain many insight during our discussion time. In particular I would like to thank Dr. Yokomatsu for helping me during the field visit to Mt. Sakurajima. Prof Douglas Paton of University of Tasmania has provided an enormous help for my research and has been a great discussion partner in which we have written some research articles which are parts of this thesis. Though up to present we could only get in touch by emails but I can feel and learn his passion on carrying out research at different types of environment. I am also grateful for the inputs and comments from the thesis examiners: Prof Kiyoshi Kobayashi and Prof. Hirokazu Tatano. Also, I learned a lot from Prof Tatano and Prof Michinori Hatayama who have given many critical inputs during seminars I attended in our research center. To the following colleagues, I owe a lot: Ye Tao for being a study partner and helped in many small and big things, Risye Dwiyani for becoming discussion partner and inputs while translating Indonesian version questionnaire, Yuki Fukushima for the preparation and fieldwork in Mt. Sakurajima, Robert Bajek for many discussions and the Japanese version questionnaire that I used for research in Mt. Sakurajima. To the secretaries of Prof Okada and secretaries of Research Center for Disaster Reduction System, DPRI : Michiko Yoshioka, Akiko Endo, Keiko Inoue, Chisato Sano, I owe a great deal of help in supporting all administrative works. I would like to thank a number of colleagues in Okada Laboratory for helping many things for my research and for the wonderful friendship in Kyoto: Roshan Bhandari, Na Jong Il, Megumi Sugimoto, Yuling Liu, Itaru Endo, Yujii Ogawa, Toda, Li, Matsubara and the past member of Okada Laboratory: Ryusuke Ikeuchi, Kazuki Yoshioka, Miyuki Hayashi, Yoko Matsuda, Yukiko Takeuchi, Xu Wei, Suman Sensarma and other members whom I cannot mention one by one. I would like to thank my partners in the field, people from Institute for Forest and Environment (INFRONT), Yogyakarta that has helped for the data collection and discussion: Ari Susanti, the late Deny Rusdianto, Luluk Khoirul and Uyung Pramudianto and Dr. Sudibyakto of Research Center for Disasters, University of Gadjah Mada. Also I am grateful for the Provention Research Grants provided through partnership with INFRONT for some costs of field research in Mt. Merapi. I am also grateful for the help by surveyors in the field and warm attention and support by communities in Mt. Merapi. I would like also thank Prof. Kazuhiro Ishihara, former director of Disaster Prevention Research Institute and Dr. Daisuke Fukushima of Sakurajima Museum NPO, who kindly introduced us to our i contacts in Mt. Sakurajima. I also thank to the respondents from Kagoshima, Sakurajima and Tarumizu cities who kindly support our questionnaire survey. To the following who has made our stay in Kyoto wonderful: Indonesian student association in Kyoto (PPI Kyoto), Eliani Ardi and Toshio San Family, and Atar (Ari Tarigan) and Vidya family who has been a friend whom we share a lot of things, starting from our journey in Pelesiran, Delft, Enschede, Kyoto and where else can we imagine. I am grateful for the constant love and support from my big family: my parents (Effendi Parlindungan Sagala and Ruly Lumban Radja), my parents in law (Badu and Wati Situmorang) and siblings in law (Yoshua, Lina and Debora) and our big family members. Last but not least, for my wife and our daughter Sarah Haniel who have been very supportive and patient. Thank you for walking the path with me. Kyoto, August 17, 2009 Saut Sagala ii Table of contents Acknowledgment .................................................................................................................................... i Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................. iii List of Figures.........................................................................................................................................v List of Tables........................................................................................................................................ vii Chapter 1. Introduction.........................................................................................................................1 1.1. Why is Social Resilience important? ........................................................................................1 1.2. Volcanic Hazards and Human Adjustments .............................................................................2 1.3. Research Objectives..................................................................................................................3 1.4. Selection of the case study areas...............................................................................................5 1.5. Research Framework ................................................................................................................6 Chapter 2. Literature Review..............................................................................................................13 2.1. Some definition of volcanic hazards.......................................................................................13 2.1.1. Primary Volcanic Hazards............................................................................................14 2.1.2. Secondary volcanic hazards..........................................................................................15 2.2. Concept of Social Resilience ..................................................................................................16 2.2.1. Measuring resilience.....................................................................................................17 2.2.2. Personal Variables ........................................................................................................18 2.2.3. Community Variables...................................................................................................20 2.2.4. Institutional Variables...................................................................................................22 2.2.5. Intentions ......................................................................................................................24 2.3. Previous studies in Auckland and Kyoto ................................................................................25 2.3.1. Case Study of Auckland, New Zealand........................................................................25 2.3.2. Case Study of Kyoto.....................................................................................................27 2.4. Evacuation Decisions Factors.................................................................................................30 2.4.1. Hazard Related Factors.................................................................................................30 2.4.2. Traditional Cultural Beliefs..........................................................................................31 2.5. Statistical Tools.......................................................................................................................31 2.5.1. Structural Equation Model............................................................................................32 2.5.2. Statistical Tests.............................................................................................................33 2.6. Summary of literature review .................................................................................................34 Chapter 3. Study Areas and Survey Methods....................................................................................41 3.1. Volcanoes and communities in Indonesia and in Japan..........................................................41 3.2. Mt. Merapi and Mt. Sakurajima..............................................................................................44 3.2.1. Merapi Volcano ............................................................................................................45 3.2.2. Mt. Sakurajima .............................................................................................................53 3.3. Research