1403969493ts01.qxd 7-2-07 04:38 PM Page i POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IN FOREIGN POLICY This page intentionally left blank 1403969493ts01.qxd 7-2-07 04:38 PM Page iii POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IN FOREIGN POLICY MANIPULATING SUPPORT ACROSS BORDERS Andrea K. Grove 1403969493ts01.qxd 7-2-07 04:38 PM Page iv POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IN FOREIGN POLICY © Andrea K. Grove, 2007. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews. First published in 2007 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN™ 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 and Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, England RG21 6XS Companies and representatives throughout the world. PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN-13: 978–1–4039–6949–1 ISBN-10: 1–4039–6949–3 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from the Library of Congress. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: May 2007 10987654321 Printed in the United States of America. 1403969493ts01.qxd 7-2-07 04:38 PM Page v CONTENTS List of Tables vii Acknowledgments ix 1 Leadership in Foreign Policy 1 2 Forcing Peace: John Hume’s “Long Struggle” in Northern Ireland, 1982–1998 13 3 From the Outside In: George H.W. Bush and the Persian Gulf War, August 1990–January 1991 41 4 Resisting Change: Mugabe against the People’s Struggle in Zimbabwe, 1998–2005 69 5 The South African “Miracle”: Mandela’s Struggle in a Globalized Transition, 1985–1994 101 6 Pakistan’s Musharraf: The War on Terror and Fueling the Jihad, 2001–2005 137 7 Concluding Observations 177 Notes 185 Bibliography 209 Index 221 This page intentionally left blank 1403969493ts01.qxd 7-2-07 04:38 PM Page vii LIST OF TABLES 1.1 Four leadership strategies 8 1.2 Case studies 9 2.1 Summary of John Hume’s use of strategy 20 3.1 Bush’s framing threat strategy 60 3.2 Summary of George Bush’s use of strategy 65 4.1 Summary of Robert Mugabe’s use of strategy 98 5.1 Summary of Nelson Mandela’s use of strategy 134 6.1 Summary of Pervez Musharraf ’s use of strategy 172 This page intentionally left blank 1403969493ts01.qxd 7-2-07 04:38 PM Page ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS have been so fortunate to have much help, support, and inspiration while Iworking on this project. First, David Pervin, my initial editor at Palgrave Macmillan deserves my gratitude because he took an initial proposal targeted at a different audience and helped me to structure a project more suited to my passion—that of trying to make research in the field of international relations more accessible to undergraduate students. His expertise and stylistic approach were invaluable. In addition, I would like to thank my students at Westminster College who have challenged me with their curiosity and their optimism that learning about the world around them is their first step in changing that world. You know who you are. Thank you for sharing that hope with me. Westminster College provided research funds that supplemented travel to South Africa, Northern Ireland, and additional research locations. For this I am grateful for the sustained support of Professor Sandra Webster in securing funding. Also, thank you to all the great colleagues I leave behind as I move on to new challenges in California. Likewise, a number of colleagues have been so generous with their time and moral support. Brian Ripley at Mercyhurst College has become one of my most valued friends and mentors. His many insights on various drafts of this work are deeply appreciated. I am constantly amazed at his ability to be an excellent educator and colleague, while still maintaining an exemplary research agenda. Kent Kille at the College of Wooster, a longtime friend, has also provided both steady moral support and indispensable expertise. Finally, Chris Scholl has suffered the most from my years of work on the project (especially by reading countless drafts) and has helped me maintain my sanity in the struggle to balance research and nearly overwhelming teaching responsibilities. He has helped me remember that I should do what makes me happy, and inspired me to pull it all together in a book about my research for my students, who give it all meaning. His example on the campus leaves a legacy that would inspire anyone to want to be a better educator. This page intentionally left blank 1403969493ts02.qxd 7-2-07 04:39 PM Page 1 CHAPTER 1 LEADERSHIP IN FOREIGN POLICY Introduction The higher a man stands on the social ladder, the more people he is connected with and the more power he has over others, the more evident is the predestination and inevitability of his every action....In historic events, the so-called great men are labels giving names to events, and like labels they have but the smallest connection with the event itself. Every act of theirs, which appears to them an act of their own will, is in an historical sense involuntary and is related to the whole course of history and predestined from eternity. Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace1 Leo Tolstoy was a magnificent author, and perhaps it could be argued that his aforementioned words portray accurately the world of his time. However, in the contemporary setting of international politics, Tolstoy could not be more wrong. The following pages explore the idea that leaders matter in international politics, and the cases in this book compare that significance in systematic ways. Exposure to events in world politics, whether through news media or observations of political pundits, gives the clear impression that leaders are active players in international relations and the making of foreign policy. However, many scholarly analyses give greater weight to aspects of the domestic and international environ- ments that constrain leaders and push them in particular directions. Especially in a world of great uncertainty and ambiguity, as opposed to the rigid Cold War envi- ronment, individual leaders make a difference. This book offers readers a way of looking at how elites adjust to and change their environment and do not simply get pushed around by grand forces of history.2 Whether in a democracy or authoritarian system, or in a Western, Islamic, or African culture, leaders are constantly engaged in a game of marshaling support to pursue their political goals. All leaders face the challenge of trying to match their agenda to their environment and of getting their constituencies to buy into their perspective. Meeting such challenges is by no means a passive process and goes beyond making decisions in a world with little room to maneuver. This book is about the games these actors play, and will show that leadership strategies transcend different types of governments, different cultures, and different types of issues. Further, regardless of context, skillful leaders do not limit their use 1403969493ts02.qxd 7-2-07 04:39 PM Page 2 2 POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IN FOREIGN POLICY of resources and alliances exclusively to the domestic or international arena; their strategies incorporate tools from both. Exploring leaders’ strategic moves in com- parative case studies of Pakistan and the “war on terror,” the Persian Gulf War, the Northern Ireland conflict, the transition from apartheid in South Africa, and Zimbabwe’s current crisis demonstrates the shared dynamics of the policy process. The cases are written so that each works well as a stand-alone tool for understanding the facts of the case and the policy process at the nexus of international relations and domestic politics. To this end, the chapters tell the story of a single case and the role of leaders’ strategies within that story. As the cases in this book reveal, lead- ers not only interpret the situation in which they find themselves but often manipulate it, framing elements of the domestic and international environments to their audiences, drawing attention, involving new actors, instigating issue linkage. The remainder of this introductory chapter presents the general approach to understanding the role of leadership in the policymaking process. The framework is situated within the literature on international relations, foreign policy, and political leadership, highlighting the view of leaders as poised between the domestic and external environments proactively using various tools. The tools are called strate- gies, and how they are used is part of the leadership process in policymaking. Four strategies, broadening audience, buying off, tying hands, and framing threat, are described here, and then the case studies and method of analysis are introduced. Leaders in International Politics The lines between domestic and international politics are increasingly blurred in the contemporary world. “Intermestic,” a combination of the words “international” and “domestic,” communicates the idea that domestic and foreign issues are linked together. Often the term “intermestic” connotes issues “that occur in the international environment but are reacted to as if they are domestic policy issues.”3 Also significant are issues occurring in the domestic environment, reacted to as if they are interna- tional policy issues. As President in 1995, Bill Clinton said, “The more time I spend on foreign policy . the more I become convinced that there is no longer a clear distinction between what is foreign and domestic.”4 The words and actions of those in power are crucial to the way in which issues get defined.