SPECIAL REPORT PERSONAL TECHNOLOGY October 8th 2011 Beyond the PC Personaltechnology.indd 1 26/09/2011 15:09 SPECIAL REPORT PERSONAL TECHNOLOGY Beyond the PC Mobile digital gadgets are overshadowing the personal computer, says Martin Giles. Their impact will be far-reaching IF YOU HAVE a phone, these days even space is within reach. Last year Luke Geissbühler and his son, who live in Brooklyn, popped a high-de- nition video camera and an Apple iPhone into a sturdy protective box with a hole for the camera’s lens. They attached the box to a weather bal- loon, which they released about 50 miles (80km) outside New York City, after getting the approval of the authorities. The balloon soared into the stratosphere and eventually burst. A parachute brought it to the ground. By tracking the iPhone’s inbuilt global positioning system, the Geissbüh- lers were able to retrieve the box and the video of their mission, which shows the curvature of the planet clearly. The results can be seen at www.brooklynspaceprogram.org. The iPhone and other smartphones are proving extremely useful on Earth too. These devices, which let people download and install applications, or apps, from online stores run by phonemakers, tele- coms companies and others, are starting to displace ordinary mobile phones in many countries. Ofcom, Britain’s telecoms regulator, recently reported that CONTENTS more than one in four adults there uses a smart- phone. Nielsen, a market-research rm, reckons the 3 Consumerisation devices make up the majority of mobile-phone pur- The power of many chases in America. Emerging markets are embracing 5 Apps on tap them as well: in Indonesia, BlackBerry handsets The beauty of bite-sized made by Canada’s Research in Motion (RIM) have software become a status symbol among the country’s fast- growing middle class. 6 Personal technology at Sales of tablet computers, though still small, are work also growing rapidly. Since Apple’s iPad arrived last IT’s Arab spring year, a host of rivals have appeared, such as RIM’s 8 Adapting personal IT for Playbook, Samsung’s Galaxy Tab and Sony’s Tablet. business All eyes are now on Amazon. With smartphones, The consumer-industrial which seem to be surgically attached to the hand of every teenager and complex many an adult, tablets have opened up a new dimension to mobile com- puting that is seducing consumers. Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, 9 Droid wars believes that in 2011 combined shipments of smartphones and tablets Smartphones are invading will overtake those of personal computers (PCs). battleelds The revolution is mobile 11 Ubiquitous computing Up close This marks a turning-point in the world of personal technology. For around 30 years PCs in various forms have been people’s main comput- 13 Technology and society ing devices. Indeed, they were the rst machines truly to democratise Here comes anyware computing power, boosting personal productivity and giving people ac- cess, via the internet, to a host of services from their homes and oces. Now the rise of smartphones and tablet computers threatens to erode the PC’s dominance, prompting talk that a post-PC era is nally dawning. PC ACKNOWLEDGMENTS s are not about to disappear. Forecasters expect 350m-360m of them to be sold this year and the market is likely to keep growing, if slow- In addition to those quoted in this ly. With their keyboards, big screens and connectivity to the web, PCs are special report, the author is still ideal for many tasks, including the writing of this article. And they particularly grateful to Vala Afshar, Ron Deibert, Rob Faris, Jeanne continue to evolve, cheap, light ultrabooks being the latest in a long line PC A list of sources is at Harris, Dan Hayes, Carl Howe, Ralf of innovations. Even so, the Wintel eradominated by s using Micro- Economist.com/specialreports Jahns, Steve Koenig, Brendon Lynch, soft’s Windows operating system and Intel’s microchipsis drawing to a Michael Morgan, Michael Nelson, close. The recent news that HP, the world’s largest computer-maker, is An audio interview with Alex Pentland, Markus Pohl, Rob PC the author is at Rogers, Sarah Rotman Epps, Ted thinking of spinning o its business to focus on faster-growing areas Economist.com/audiovideo/ Schadler, Ken Singer and Jillian York is a sign of just how much has changed. 1 specialreports The Economist October 8th 2011 1 SPECIAL REPORT PERSONAL TECHNOLOGY 800 Devices in use: FORECAST Growth of Desktop PCs Smartphones 700 in 1993 100m the gadget Laptop PCs Tablets 600 PCs Device shipments 500 Units, m 400 in 1bn 300 2008 PCs 200 100 10bn 0 by 2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 2020* Mobile connected Mobile phones in use devices m, 2003-15 Feature phones Smartphones 2011 150 400 300 Forecast 100 200 50 100 0 0 Mobile broadband South Korea Britain France Germany Japan Russia Brazil United States India China 48.2 62.0 62.8 82.3 126.5 143.0 194.9 Population 310.4 1,224.6 1,341.3 connections m, 2010 Per 100 people, 2010 91-100 41-50 0-10 Sources: Cisco; Gartner; Informa Telecoms & Media; KPCB; Morgan Stanley; UN; Yankee Group; The Economist *Forecast 2 A new tech landscape is taking shape that oers consumers dreessen Horowitz, has invested in several consumer companies, access to computing almost anywhere and on many dierent including Facebook and Twitter. Now, he says, many exciting de- kinds of device. Smartphones are at the forefront of this change. velopments in information technology (IT) are appearing in the The Yankee Group, a research rm, thinks that sales of these hands of consumers rst and only then making their way into phones will overtake those of ordinary feature phones in many other arenasa trend that tech types refer to as the consumerisa- more countries in the next few years. But other kinds of machine, tion of IT. from Microsoft’s Xbox 360 gaming console, which allows gamers The transformation may not be quite as dramatic as Mr An- to contact friends while they play, to web-enabled television sets, dreessen’s remark implies. Armies, universities and other institu- are also helping people stay connected. tions still spend vast sums on research, the fruit of which will con- In part, this emerging array of devices reects changes in tinue to nourish personal technology. Moreover, this is not the rst society. As people come to rely more heavily on the web for every- time that individuals have taken the lead in using new gadgets: the thing from shopping to social networking, they need access to rst PCs were often sneaked into rms by a few geeky employees. computing power in many more places. And as the line between Nevertheless there are good reasons for thinking that the lat- their personal and their work lives has blurred, so demand has est round of consumerisation is going to have a far bigger impact grown for devices that can be used seamlessly in both. than its predecessors. One is that rising incomes have created a vast, global audience of early adopters for gadgets. Around 8m un- The consumer is king its of the Kinect, a Microsoft device that attaches to the Xbox and The rise of tablets and smartphones also reects a big shift in lets people control on-screen action with their body movements, the world of technology itself. For years many of the most exciting were sold within 60 days of its launch in November 2010. No con- advances in personal computing have come from the armed sumer-electronics device has ever sold so fast, according to Guin- forces, large research centres or big businesses that focused main- ness World Records. These people will absorb new technology ly on corporate customers. Sometimes these breakthroughs found on a scale that is simply quite stunning, says Craig Mundie, Mi- their way to consumers after being modied for mass consump- crosoft’s head of research and strategy. tion. The internet, for instance, was inspired by technology rst de- The cost of many gadgets is falling fast, giving another llip veloped by America’s defence establishment. to consumption. Smartphones priced at around $100after a sub- Over the past ten years or so, however, the consumer market sidy from telecoms companies, which make money on associated has become a hotbed of innovation in its own right. The polarity data plansare starting to appear in America. The cheapest Kin- has reversed in the technology industry, claims Marc Andrees- dle, an e-reader from Amazon, sells for $114, against $399 for the sen, a prominent Silicon Valley venture capitalist whose rm, An- rst version launched in 2007. The cost of digital storage has also 1 2 The Economist October 8th 2011 SPECIAL REPORT PERSONAL TECHNOLOGY 2 fallen dramatically. A gigabyte (GB) of storage, which is roughly to build their own global brands. enough to hold a two-hour lm after compression, cost around A globalised supply chain is not the only thing helping con- $200,000 in 1980; today a disk drive holding a terabyte, or sumer-electronics companies to cut costs. They are also benet- 1,024GB, costs around $100. ing from economies of scale as the incomes of more and more The growth of the internet and the rapid spread of fast people in more and more countries rise to the point at which gad- broadband connectivity have also transformed the landscape. gets are aordable. Erik Brynjolfsson of the MIT Sloan School of So has the rise of companies such as Apple, Google and Amazon, Management points out that because of this, manufacturers of whose main aim is to delight individuals rather than businesses consumer electronics are now moving down production learn- or governments.