Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Doctoral Dissertations Graduate School 2016 The ulneV rability of Louisiana to Hurricane Damage and the Value of Wetlands for Hurricane Risk Reduction James Luke Boutwell Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_dissertations Part of the Agricultural Economics Commons Recommended Citation Boutwell, James Luke, "The ulneV rability of Louisiana to Hurricane Damage and the Value of Wetlands for Hurricane Risk Reduction" (2016). LSU Doctoral Dissertations. 4308. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_dissertations/4308 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please [email protected]. THE VULNERABILITY OF LOUISIANA TO HURRICANE DAMAGE AND THE VALUE OF WETLANDS FOR HURRICANE RISK REDUCTION A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in The Department of Agricultural Economics by James Luke Boutwell B.S., University of Alabama, 2011 M.S., Louisiana State University, 2014 December, 2016 Acknowledgments I would like to thank several people for their support. First, I would like to thank my wife, Hannah, for her inspiration and encouragement in pursuing my interests and passions. Her extraordinary patience and support during my studies provided the motivation to complete this dissertation. My family, especially my father, has been unconditionally supportive of my studies, and for that, I am very grateful. There are numerous graduate students at LSU that have been influential in the development of my studies and that have been great company, especially during the lackluster undertakings that necessarily accompany post-graduate studies. Those to whom I am particularly thankful include Bryan Gottshall, Michelle Savolainen, Alejandra Breve-Farrari, Felipe Peguero and other students of the LSU Department of Agricultural Economics. I would also like to thank the families of Ben BergholtZ and Robby Howell, who have played an important role both intellectually and personally in my life during my time at LSU – y’all are the best. Most importantly, I would like to thank the members of my committee: Dr. Rex Caffey, Dr. John Westra, Dr. Matthew Fannin, and Dr. Denise Delorme. This committee has been remarkably accommodating during the performance and completion of my research. I consider their willingness to facilitate the completion of my requirements for a Doctoral degree in a professional and timely manner to be exemplary, and thank them. I wish to give special thanks to Dr. Rex Caffey, my Major Professor and Committee Chair, for his support during my studies. He, on several occasions, went out of his way to support my progress out of genuine personal ii concern for me, and this manuscript would not be possible without his instrumental influence. I would also like to thank Dr. Westra and Dr. Fannin for providing opportunities to pursue interesting topics and to be involved in professional and scientific endeavors in which I would not have been able to participate otherwise. My committee’s confidence in encouraging me to pursue my interests, and allowing me to do so with a high degree of independence has been invaluable. I consider their advice and encouragement to be the most valuable facet of my experience at LSU. To these individuals and all others who have accompanied me during my studies, thank you. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................................. ii LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................................... vii LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................... viii ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................................... x CHAPTER 1: SETTING, CONTEXT, AND OVERVIEW OF DISSERTATION ........................... 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 1 PROBLEM STATEMENT ............................................................................................................ 3 OBJECTIVES .................................................................................................................................... 5 BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................................. 8 Coastal Population Growth ....................................................................................... 8 Global Estimates .............................................................................................. 8 Estimates in the U.S., Gulf of Mexico, and Louisiana ....................... 10 Coastal HaZards and Climate Change ................................................................ 13 Observed Changes and their Basis ......................................................... 14 Coastal Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes) .............................................. 15 Ecosystem Services ................................................................................................... 19 Wetlands as Natural Infrastructure ................................................................... 21 Document Outline ...................................................................................................... 22 CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC DAMAGES FROM HURRICANES: THE INTERACTIONS OF STORM INTENSITY, WETLAND AREA, AND POPULATION SIZE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST .................................................................................................................................. 25 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 25 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................................ 28 Damage Data Generation ........................................................................................ 28 Study Area and Data Criteria ................................................................................. 31 Independent Variable Data .................................................................................... 34 Expected Damage Function ................................................................................... 35 iv RESULTS ....................................................................................................................................... 37 Model Estimation Results ....................................................................................... 37 MonetiZed Marginal Effects ................................................................................... 38 Analysis of Marginal Effects ................................................................................... 39 Marginal Effect of Wind ............................................................................. 39 Marginal Effect of Wetlands ..................................................................... 44 Marginal Effect of Population .................................................................. 49 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION ............................................................................................ 54 CHAPTER 3: THE VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL LOUISIANA TO HURRICANE DAMAGE: PRESENT AND FUTURE .................................................................................................. 58 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 58 Paradigms of Vulnerability .................................................................................... 59 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................................ 61 Hurricane Frequency Estimation and AnnualiZed Expected Damage Function ......................................................................................................................... 62 Scenario Analysis ....................................................................................................... 65 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................................... 69 Hurricane Regime Scenario ................................................................................... 69 Wetland Loss Scenario ............................................................................................. 71 Population Scenario .................................................................................................. 72 Compound Scenario and Net Present Value ................................................... 74 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION ............................................................................................ 78 CHAPTER 4: THE VALUE OF COASTAL WETLANDS AS