Brazil COVID-19 RESULTS BRIEFING COVID-19 Results Briefing Brazil March 17, 2021 This document contains summary information on the latest projections from the IHME model on COVID-19 in Brazil. The model was run on March 17, 2021 with data through March 15, 2021. Current situation • Daily reported cases in the last week increased to 62,400 per day on average compared to 57,900 the week before (Figure 1). • Daily deaths in the last week increased to 1,900 per day on average compared to 1,600 the week before (Figure 2). This makes COVID-19 the number 1 cause of death in Brazil this week (Table 1). • The daily death rate is greater than 4 per million in 25 states (Figure 3). • We estimated that 38% of people in Brazil have been infected as of March 15 (Figure 4). • Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in 19 states (Figure 5). Trends in drivers of transmission • Mobility last week was 26% lower than the pre-COVID-19 baseline (Figure 9). Mobility was near baseline (within 10%) in Acre, Amapá, and Pará. Mobility was lower than 30% of baseline in Bahia, Ceará, Paraná, Pernambuco, Piaui, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio Grande do Sul, and Roraima. • As of March 15 we estimated that 66% of people always wore a mask when leaving their home compared to 65% last week (Figure 11). Mask use was lower than 50% in no states. • There were 54 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people on March 15 (Figure 13). • In Brazil 88.5% of people say they would accept or would probably accept a vaccine for COVID-19. The fraction of the population who are open to receiving a COVID-19 vaccine ranges from 81% in Roraima to 92% in Piaui (Figure 16). • In our current reference scenario, we expect that 101.88 million will be vaccinated by June 1st (Figure 17). Projections • If universal mask coverage (95%) were attained in the next week, our model projects 20,000 fewer cumulative deaths compared to the reference scenario on July 1, 2021 (Figure 18). • Under our worse scenario, our model projects 427,000 cumulative deaths on July 1, 2021 (Figure 18). • In our reference scenario, which represents what we think is most likely to happen, our model projects 389,000 cumulative deaths on July 1, 2021. This represents 108,000 additional deaths from March 15 to July 1 (Figure 18). Daily deaths will peak at 2,350 on March 27, 2021 (Figure 19). • By July 1, we project that 26,100 lives will be saved by the projected vaccine rollout. • Figure 21 compares our reference scenario forecasts to other publicly archived models. Forecasts are widely divergent. • At some point from March through July 1, 15 states will have high or extreme stress on hospital beds (Figure 24). At some point from March through July 1, 22 states will have high or extreme stress on ICU capacity (Figure 23). covid19.healthdata.org 1 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Brazil COVID-19 RESULTS BRIEFING Model updates There are no major updates in the model this week. covid19.healthdata.org 2 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Brazil COVID-19 RESULTS BRIEFING Figure 1. Reported daily COVID-19 cases 80,000 60,000 40,000 Count 20,000 0 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Month Daily cases Table 1. Ranking of COVID-19 among the leading causes of mortality this week, assuming uniform deaths of non-COVID causes throughout the year Cause name Weekly deaths Ranking COVID-19 13,211 1 Ischemic heart disease 3,293 2 Stroke 2,519 3 Lower respiratory infections 1,705 4 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 1,321 5 Interpersonal violence 1,267 6 Diabetes mellitus 1,257 7 Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 1,050 8 Road injuries 856 9 Chronic kidney disease 814 10 covid19.healthdata.org 3 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Brazil COVID-19 RESULTS BRIEFING Figure 2. Reported daily COVID-19 deaths 2,000 1,500 1,000 Daily deaths 500 0 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 covid19.healthdata.org 4 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Brazil COVID-19 RESULTS BRIEFING Figure 3. Daily COVID-19 death rate per 1 million on March 15, 2021 <1 1 to 1.9 2 to 2.9 3 to 3.9 4 to 4.9 5 to 5.9 6 to 6.9 7 to 7.9 >=8 Figure 4. Estimated percent of the population infected with COVID-19 on March 15, 2021 <5 5−9.9 10−14.9 15−19.9 20−24.9 25−29.9 30−34.9 35−39.9 40−44.9 45−49.9 >=50 covid19.healthdata.org 5 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Brazil COVID-19 RESULTS BRIEFING Figure 5. Mean effective R on March 04, 2021. The estimate of effective R is based on the combined analysis of deaths, case reporting, and hospitalizations where available. Current reported cases reflect infections 11-13 days prior, so estimates of effective R can only be made for the recent past. Effective R less than 1 means that transmission should decline, all other things being held the same. <0.88 0.88−0.9 0.91−0.93 0.94−0.96 0.97−0.99 1−1.02 1.03−1.05 1.06−1.08 1.09−1.11 >=1.12 covid19.healthdata.org 6 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Brazil COVID-19 RESULTS BRIEFING Figure 6. Percent of COVID-19 infections detected. This is estimated as the ratio of reported daily COVID-19 cases to estimated daily COVID-19 infections based on the SEIR disease transmission model. 100% 75% 50% 25% Percent of infections detected of infections Percent 0% Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 Argentina United States of America Colombia Mexico Brazil *Due to measurement errors in cases and testing rates, the infection to detection rate (IDR) can exceed 100% at particular points in time. covid19.healthdata.org 7 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Brazil COVID-19 RESULTS BRIEFING Figure 7. Percent of circulating SARS-CoV-2 for 3 primary variants on March 15, 2021. A. Percent B.1.1.7 variant 0% 1−9% 10−24% 25−49% 50−74% 75−89% 90−100% B. Percent B.1.351 variant 0% 1−9% 10−24% 25−49% 50−74% 75−89% 90−100% C. Percent P1 variant 0% 1−9% 10−24% 25−49% 50−74% 75−89% 90−100% covid19.healthdata.org 8 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Brazil COVID-19 RESULTS BRIEFING Figure 8. Infection fatality ratio on March 15, 2021. This is estimated as the ratio of COVID-19 deaths to infections based on the SEIR disease transmission model. < 0.5% 0.5% to 1% 1% to 1.5% 1.5% to 2% 2% to 2.5% > 2.5% covid19.healthdata.org 9 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Brazil CRITICAL DRIVERS Critical drivers Table 2. Current mandate implementation All nonessential businesses closed All nonessential businesses restricted businesses Any gatherings Any restricted Mask use School closure home order Stay limits Travel Acre Alagoas Amapá Amazonas Bahia Ceará Distrito Federal Espírito Santo Goiás Maranhão Mato Grosso Mato Grosso do Sul Minas Gerais Paraná Paraíba Pará Pernambuco Piaui Rio Grande do Norte Rio Grande do Sul Rio de Janeiro Rondônia Roraima Santa Catarina Sergipe São Paulo Tocantins Mandate in place No mandate Mandate in place (imposed this week) No mandate (lifted this week) *Not all locations are measured at the subnational level. covid19.healthdata.org 10 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Brazil CRITICAL DRIVERS Figure 9. Trend in mobility as measured through smartphone app use compared to January 2020 baseline 0 −20 −40 −60 Percent reduction from average mobility reduction from average Percent −80 Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20Mar 20 Apr 20May 20Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20Sep 20Oct 20 Nov 20Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21Mar 21 Apr 21 Argentina United States of America Colombia Mexico Brazil Figure 10. Mobility level as measured through smartphone app use compared to January 2020 baseline (percent) on March 15, 2021 =<−50 −49 to −45 −44 to −40 −39 to −35 −34 to −30 −29 to −25 −24 to −20 −19 to −15 −14 to −10 >−10 covid19.healthdata.org 11 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Brazil CRITICAL DRIVERS Figure 11. Trend in the proportion of the population reporting always wearing a mask when leaving home 75 50 25 Percent of population Percent 0 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 Argentina United States of America Colombia Mexico Brazil Figure 12. Proportion of the population reporting always wearing a mask when leaving home on March 15, 2021 <45% 45 to 49% 50 to 54% 55 to 59% 60 to 64% 65 to 69% 70 to 74% 75 to 79% 80 to 84% >=85% covid19.healthdata.org 12 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Brazil CRITICAL DRIVERS Figure 13. Trend in COVID-19 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people 400 200 Test per 100,000 population Test 0 Jan 20 Feb 20Mar 20 Apr 20May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20Sep 20Oct 20 Nov 20Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21Mar 21 Apr 21 Argentina United States of America Colombia Mexico Brazil Figure 14.