Power Plants 2020+ Power Plant Options for the Future and the Related Demand for Research Statement of the VGB Scientific Advisory Board 2010 Power Plants 2020+ Contents 1 Introduction 3 2 Generation Structure in the European High-Voltage Grid 4 2.1 Overview 4 2.1.1 Modern Fossil-fired Power Plants 5 2.1.2 Nuclear Power 5 2.1.3 Power Production based on Renewable Energies 6 2.2 Availability and Costs of Different Power Production Options 6 2.3 Costs of the Different Electricity Generation Options 7 2.4. Interaction within the Energy Supply System 9 2.4.1 Overview 9 2.4.2 Research Topics 10 2.5 Conclusion for the Generation Structure until 2020 11 3 Hard Coal/ Lignite Fired Power Plants 12 3.1 Coal Combustion 12 3.1.1 Efficiency Increase and Process Optimisation 12 3.1.2 Plant Optimisation and Increase in Flexibility 13 3.1.3 Carbon Capture and Storage Technology 14 3.1.4 Increase of Acceptance for the Fossil-fired 14 Share of the Generation Portfolio 3.2 Coal Gasification/IGCC Technology 15 3.2.1 Gasification and Gas Cleaning 15 3.2.2 CCS Technology 15 3.2.3 Hydrocarbons- and H2-Production 15 3.2.4 Increase of Acceptance 16 3.3 Material Development and -Optimisation 16 4 Regenerative Power Production Systems 17 4.1 Wind Energy 17 4.1.1 Research Topics 17 4.2 Solar Energy 18 4.2.1 Research Issues 19 1 Power Plants 2020+ 5 Nuclear Power 20 5.1 Generation III Reactors (GEN III) 20 5.2 Generation IV Reactors (GEN IV) 20 5.2.1 High-Temperature Reactors for Nuclear Process Heat Production 21 5.2.2 Fast Reactors 21 5.3 Research Demand 21 5.4 Summary and Perspective 23 6 Chemical Storage 24 6.1 Overview 24 6.2 Research Demand 24 6.3 Research Demand for ‘Chemical Storages‘ other than H2 25 6.4 Localisation of ‘Chemical Storages‘ in the European Net 26 and Feed-in of Regenerative Energy Annex: Members of the VGB Scientific Advisory Board 28 Members of the Editorial Committee “Power Plants 2020+” 32 2 Power Plants 2020+ 1 Introduction Based on the investigations of the climate researchers collaborating under the umbrella of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the members of the VGB Scientific Advisory Board also share the opinion that electricity generation in Europe has to be switched to a maximum of low carbon generation technologies. However, this target cannot be achieved in the short term and also not uniformly in all European countries due to the availability of resources required in energy conversion proces- ses, for reasons of national sovereignty and because of necessary quality. Different European strategies exist according to natural potentials and attitudes towards nuclear power: · Countries like France, the United Kingdom or Sweden consider nuclear power as the most effective CO2-free resource for electricity generation; · Countries like Germany are striving for reduced CO2 emissions through further increasing the efficiency of fossil-fired power plants and through Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS); · Countries like Switzerland and Austria have a significant share of hydro power which might possibly be even extended; · Countries with suitable coastal regions like e.g. Denmark, the Netherlands, Great Britain and Germany support and boost wind power; · Countries in South Europe like e.g. Italy, Spain and Portugal dispose of solar energy that can be exploited. This short overview already demonstrates that in the foreseeable future all generation options – nuclear power, fossil-fired power plants and renewable sources of energy – will continue to be applied. If, however, due to climate protection targets, energy conversion processes are to be to switched to CO2-free or -low carbon energy sources, comprehensive research ende- avours will be required in order to advance existing technology options and to adjust them to changing conditions. This paper is bound to recommend individual fields of research from the viewpoint of the VGB Scientific Advisory Board for the period 2020 and beyond. Firstly, the generation structure in the European high-voltage grid and its development until 2020 will be considered, then the research demand for · Hard coal- and lignite-fired power plants, · Renewables-based electricity generation (wind, solar energy) and · Nuclear-based electricity generation will be outlined briefly, listing the main technology issues to be answered by researchers in order to increase efficiency and to settle any “loose ends”. Apart from generation technolo- gies, the options for storing electrical energy will also be dealt with. These options can con- tribute to make the feed-in of renewables-based electricity more permanent and sustainable. 3 Power Plants 2020+ 2 Generation Structure in the European High-Voltage Grid 2.1 Overview The global financial and economic crisis that started in September 2008 also affected – alt- hough cushioned – the European energy sector. The consequences are manifold and can be characterised as follows: · Industrial enterprises throttled production and required clearly less electricity and heat, · Electricity consumption decreased over the complete year of 2009, in Germany alone by 6 %, 58 mm > 79 mm > 121 mm > 184 mm > 260 mm > 277 mm > · A lot of power plant projects had to be delayed due to financial problems, among them also large projects on the basis of renewable sources of energy. Thus, compared to the growth rates assumed prior to the crisis, the increase in electricity generation until 2020 should be obviously smaller. It has to be supposed that the gross elec- tricity generation in the European high-voltage system that amounted to about 3,300 TWh in 2005 (Germany 585 TWh) will only increase to approximately 3,700 TWh in 2020 instead of 4,000 TWh as estimated before the crisis. The question arises whether and how the existing power plant park can be restructured by 2020 in order to cover the demand by meeting at the same time climate protection targets of minus 20 % greenhouse gases (EU) and minus 21 % CO2 (Germany) with reference to the 1990 values. These figures reveal that all available sources of energy will have to make their individual contribution in order to meet demand and the politically agreed climate protection targets. Plus 12 % in 15 years (0.9 % per year) Additional demand: 400 × 109 kWh/a 3,700 × 109 kWh Replacement: 3,300 × 109 kWh 800 × 109 kWh/a 56 % Nuclear 46 % CO -free and 2 CO2-free Renewables Additional demand renewables: 295,000 MW 54 % Fossil fired 44 % Additional demand power plants nuclear: 11,000 MW 2005 2020 Figure 1: Expected extension of power plants and its coverage for EU-27 (Source: VGB). 4 Power Plants 2020+ Even if it would be managed to meet the increase in electricity generation through very am- bitious increases in renewable sources of energy, and even if above that the share of CO2-free nuclear power was kept constant by constructing new plants, this would not save a single tonne of CO2. Therefore, the entire share of CO2-reduction in electricity generation would have to be reali- sed by fossil-fired power plants. This, however, could only be materialised by 2020 through a consequent and comprehensive power plant renewal programme, i.e. old plants with low ef- ficiencies will have to be replaced by highly efficient plants with cutting-edge technology. Besides, central generation facilities will have to be advanced and further developed in order to enable them to cope with the increased feed-in of renewables-based electricity into elec- trical grids. They will have to compensate for the fluctuating and difficult to forecast diffe- rence between privileged feed-in-capacity and current demand, unless suitable storage opti- ons may become available that could store surplus renewables-based power. The existing pump-storage capacity is far from being sufficient, and the potential for new dams is in cen- tral Europe practically exploited. Therefore, conventional and nuclear power plants will have to operate more in load-following modes (including capability for steep load ramps, see chap- ter 2.4.1). 2.1.1 Modern Fossil-fired Power Plants The focus will have to be on the construction of new plants with much higher efficiencies. However, this will not be sufficient to meet long-term climate protection targets, i.e. further steps will be required like e.g. CCS technology which will probably be available after 2020. CCS can also be retrofitted to existing power plants. In order to meet demand and to be able to guarantee supply security at any time, about 170,000 MW will have to be built anew in Europe by 2020. This figure corresponds to about 200 large hard coal-, lignite- and gas-fired power plants (source: VGB PowerTech 12/2009). In the past three years, real new construction only amounted to slightly more than 50 % of the calculated demand. Every cancellation or delay of any project, either in the field of rene- wables, nuclear power or fossil-fired plants, jeopardises climate protection targets. The same applies if electricity consumption will increase more until 2020. 2.1.2 Nuclear Power CO2-free nuclear power remains indispensable in this energy mix. The further development and advancement of nuclear power forms the basis for a clean and secure future energy sup- ply in numerous European countries. Apart from Finland, France, Slovakia, Romania and Russia (e.g. at Kaliningrad) where nuclear power plants are already under construction, the United Kingdom, Italy, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Hungary have also launched or announced new nuclear construction programmes. The only countries which remain with phase-out decisions Germany, Belgium and Spain are striving for a prolongation of operating periods of nuclear power plants.