Relations Between Israel and the South Cyprus Greek Administration: A New Alignment in the Eastern Mediterranean? A. Murat AĞDEMİR* Abstract Key Words Important changes have shaped the Eastern Israel, South Cyprus Greek Administration, Mediterranean since the discovery of energy Greece, Gas, Foreign Policy. resources and the disintegration of Turkish- Israeli relations. The widening divergence in interests between Turkey and Israel provided Introduction the geopolitical impetus for the development of a rapprochement between Israel and the South The Eastern Mediterranean region Cyprus Greek Administration (SCGA). Shortly has a special place in the politics after the 2010 Gaza-bound Freedom Flotilla, Israel began forming ties with the SCGA. of the Middle East and the whole In particular, the relations between Israel Mediterranean area. Today, conflicting and the SCGA have blossomed over mutual issues in the region are central to concerns about the energy resources in the strategic debates, and security concerns Eastern Mediterranean, while at the same time have had a prominent place on the political, military and economic cooperation policy agendas of the related countries among Israel, Greece and the SCGA have significantly increased. Moreover, regional for some time. The Arab Spring and instability prompted by the Arab Spring left the discovery of gas in the region have the Jewish state with little choice but to form shaped the geopolitical dynamics, alternative friends among the states close to its the effect of which is especially clear geographical vicinity. In many ways, Israel’s in the region, and the changes in the developing relations with the SCGA seem to geopolitical environment of the Eastern constitute a precursor of broader political and military cooperation, and an alignment of Mediterranean have pronounced interests. implications for the types of challenges that the related countries confront as well as the opportunities they face. In this regard, over the last few years, * Dr., Turkish Ministry of National Defence, the Eastern Mediterranean has been International Security and Terrorism, Ankara- increasingly fraught with growing Turkey. competition between regional players, E-mail: [email protected] most notably Turkey, the South Cyprus 103 PERCEPTIONS, Summer 2016, Volume XXI, Number 2, pp. 103-126. A. Murat Ağdemir Greek Administration (SCGA),1 and The Arab Spring has created a new Israel, signalling an apparent return of and challenging environment for power politics in regional relations. Israel in the Middle East, and changes in the regional balance of power in the post-Arab Spring period have Regional instability prompted affected Israeli foreign policy. From by the Arab Spring left the the outset, the Arab Spring took the Jewish state with little choice world by storm, enveloped the region but to form alternative friends in uncertainty, and changed Israel’s among the states close to its geopolitical environment. Israel was geographical vicinity. astounded when protests initially broke out, and has responded to the shifting regional realities with a mix Israel’s relations with the of hope and hesitance. When protests surrounding countries have generally first broke out in Tunisia, Israel took been explained according to the Arab- a wait-and-see approach, and tried to Israel dispute or with Israel’s famous see how developments would progress. “periphery doctrine.”2 However, in When the regime in Tunisia fell, the new millennium, the Eastern Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Mediterranean has come to occupy expressed his concern for the increased an ever more central role in Israel’s volatility of the Middle East.3 In foreign policy. This region hosts two of addition to the threat to regional the world’s most intractable conflicts: stability, there was growing skepticism the Arab-Israeli conflict and the over the Arab Spring’s potential to unresolved Cyprus question, leading to lead to a true democratization process. disputes over boundaries on land and As Israel has been always sensitive at sea, and disputes over the ownership to its security, it has examined the of hydrocarbon resources. In addition, developments with considerable regional developments in the post- concern, and even fear. Arab Spring period, namely the Syrian civil war and the rise of the Islamic The Arab Spring might have far- State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS or Al- reaching consequences for Israel, which Dawlah Al-Islamiyah Fi Al-Iraq Wa- may carry with them various types of Al-Sham [DAESH]), Israel’s threat opportunies or problems. While the perception towards Iran, and maritime opportunities that are brought by border disputes, have begun to cast a the change may help improve Israel’s shadow on Israel’s foreign relations as relations with some of its neighbours, well. there are also the threats coming from 104 Relations Between Israel and the South Cyprus Greek Administration: A New Alignment in the Eastern Mediterranean? the rise in uncertainty. Thus, Israel has one of extreme animosity and fear. developed an overall risk-adverse and Iran’s nuclear program is accepted as minimalist policy with respect to the an existential threat by many people in Arab Spring. For now, Israel’s most Israel and there have been many Israeli important policy dilemma is how to leaders across the political spectrum deal with the Syrian crisis. Syria has who have emphasized the grave danger been thrown into a destructive civil posed by Iran.6 The deal reached with war and has become the battleground Iran in July 2015 over its nuclear of a proxy war between regional and program was condemned by Israeli international rivals. As the conflict in leaders, amid claims that it would Syria has continued and escalated, the “free Iran to pursue nuclear weapons.”7 civil war not only produced new threats Moreover, the Arab Spring opened for Israel, such as ISIS, but also turned new opportunities for Iranian-Syrian into a regional crisis, drawing other cooperation, which the Iranians were neighbouring countries, such as Iran, quick to seize. As long as the civil war into it. in Syria continues, it can be expected that Iran will play an active role in the In recent years ISIS has managed to struggle and will be able to threaten position itself as the most significant Israel from Syria together with anti- threat to regional stability in the Israel proxies. Middle East. It captured tremendous international attention by swiftly conquering large swaths of land. In Israel, concern has increased as ISIS Iran’s nuclear program is has neared Israeli borders, particularly accepted as an existential threat on the Golan Heights and in the by many people in Israel and Sinai. Although ISIS has declared its there have been many Israeli intentions to attack Israel,4 Israel has leaders across the political 5 not been a top priority for ISIS. In spectrum who have emphasized this regard, it has not been in Israel’s the grave danger posed by Iran. interest to initiate military action. For this reason Israel has avoided initiating premature military measures, and has instead taken defensive action Against this backdrop, lately, Israel by strenghtening its borders. At the and the SCGA have entered a new same time, Israel has also continued phase in their relations. The proximity to be preoccupied with Iran. Israel’s of the resource-rich area to the current state of relations with Iran is Cypriot-Israeli maritime border and 105 A. Murat Ağdemir the souring Turkey-Israeli relations led Israel and the SCGA has been the to a rapprochement between Israel and excavation and the exploitation of the SCGA, as well as to a strengthening natural gas. In recent years, Israel and cooperation between Israel, the SCGA the SCGA have increasingly sought and Greece. Good relations with independent sources of energy on Turkey was a way for Israel to break their Mediterranean marine shelves, free from regional isolation and to and the discovery of natural gas off reduce the religious dimension of the shores of Israel and the SCGA the Arab-Israeli conflict. The Israeli- has brought them closer. As a result, Turkish relationship has been a crucial in December 2010, they signed a piece in the puzzle not only of the maritime agreement delineating both Middle East, but also of the Eastern sides’ Exclusive Economic Zones Mediterranean. However, starting from (EEZ).10 When Benjamin Netanyahu the Operation Cast Lead in 2008, this became the first Israeli Prime Minister has changed and Israel’s relations with to visit the SCGA, the two sides signed Turkey have deteriorated gradually. a military agreement in February The Mavi Marmara flotilla incident in 2012 allowing the Israeli Air Force May 2010 instigated a phase in which to use the airspace and territorial bilateral relations fell to an historical waters of the SCGA to protect energy low.8 Following the flotilla incident, in resources.11 At the same time, the oil which nine Turkish citizens were killed and gas company Noble Energy (a onboard the Mavi Marmara vessel, both US company) has been leading the countries suspended defense contracts. exploration and exploitation efforts in Turkey recalled its ambassador from the Israeli and Greek Cypriot Exclusive Tel Aviv, blocked Israel initiatives in Economic Zone (EEZ) since 2009. NATO, supported legal procedures Shares in the US company are held by against Israeli decision-makers and the Greek Cypriot Energy Regulatory soldiers who were involved in the Authority, the SCGA’s national energy incident, and cancelled joint military company, and by Israel’s Delek Drilling exercises.9 Turkey conditioned the LP and Avner Oil Exploration LLP.12 renormalization of relations on an Most probably, Greece is to assist the Israeli apology for the killing of Turkish exploitation efforts, as it is a channel citizens, monetary compensation to the of transportation of natural gas to victims’ families and the removal of the European countries.13 blockade off the Gaza Strip.