University of Massachusetts Amherst ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst Doctoral Dissertations Dissertations and Theses October 2019 The Influence of Wind owerP on Rural Areas Economic, Demographic, and Community Services Impacts Eman Shoeib University of Massachusetts Amherst Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.umass.edu/dissertations_2 Part of the Urban Studies and Planning Commons Recommended Citation Shoeib, Eman, "The Influence of Wind owerP on Rural Areas Economic, Demographic, and Community Services Impacts" (2019). Doctoral Dissertations. 1763. https://doi.org/10.7275/15094109 https://scholarworks.umass.edu/dissertations_2/1763 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Dissertations and Theses at ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has been accepted for inclusion in Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Influence of Wind Power on Rural Areas Economic, Demographic, and Community Services Impacts A Dissertation Presented by EMAN AHMED SHOEIB Submitted to the Graduate School of the University of Massachusetts Amherst in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY September 2019 Regional Planning © Copyright by Eman A. Shoeib 2019 All Rights Reserve The Influence of Wind Power on Rural Areas Economic, Demographic, and Community Services Impact A Dissertation Presented by EMAN AHMED SHOEIB Approved as to style and content by: ______________________________ Henry Renski, Co-Chair ______________________________ Elisabeth Hamin Infield, Co-Chair ______________________________ Erin D. Baker, Member __________________________________ Robert Ryan, Department Chair Department of Landscape Architecture & Regional Planning DEDICATION To my mother’s soul FAYEZAH SHEHATA for the endless love and care throughout my life. I wish you were alive so I could share this moment with you – but I ask God every day to reward you and increase your ranks in Heaven, until you reach the highest level in Paradise. To my encouraging father, AHMED HAMED SHOEIB, for his prayers and thoughts To my supportive husband, OSAMA GABALLA BEHIGE, for being there for me. And finally, to my lovely kids, OMAR GABALLA, SARAH GABALLA, AHMED GABALLA & ADAM GABALLA, for being my best source of motivation to never give up on the pursuit of this dream. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I want to thank my advisors Henry Renski and Elisabeth Hamin Infield for their continuous support of my research, as well as giving me motivation and sharing their knowledge. The experience of working with both of you was fundamental for my growth as a researcher. It was akin to learning two large schools of thought at the same time. I give you all of my gratitude for the time you dedicated reading my work and helping enriching my ideas. I would also like to thank my Egyptian government for believing in me and for their financial support. A special thank you to all those whose support and friendship helped me stay focused on this project, and who have provided me with the encouragement to continue when the going got tough. v ABSTRACT THE INFLUENCE OF WIND POWER ON RURAL AREAS ECONOMIC, DEMOGRAPHIC, AND COMMUNITY SERVICES IMPACTS SEPTEMBER 2019 EMAN AHMED SHOEIB, B.S., CAIRO UNIVERSITY, EGYPT M.SC., IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY PH.D., UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST Directed by: Henry Renski & Elisabeth Hamin Infield Wind power development has rapidly expanded in the United States. Much of this growth occurred in rural areas because of the availability of land and wind resources required to power turbines. The economic promise of wind power projects is particularly appealing for rural areas whose traditional economic base (typically agricultural) no longer supports as many households as it once did. Numerous studies have found that wind power projects have positive economic impacts on rural areas. What is less well understood is the effect of these wind power farms on other indicators of development, such as municipal services, demographic change, and quality of life. This dissertation examined the effects of wind power development on the economy, society, and community services in rural counties in the United States. The dissertation utilizes a mixed-methods approach, including both statistical analyses of secondary data, as well as the analysis of primary data collected through interviews. vi I use two longitudinal data analysis models, mixed effect model and fixed effect model with a quasi-experimental approach, to measure the net economic and demographic impacts of wind development on rural counties. The primary data addressed the effects of substantial wind development on eleven rural counties when they hosted substantial wind farms over 1000 MW. The results of the statistical analysis show a small significant effect of wind development on rural economies in term of increasing per capita income, median household income, farm income, and per capita employment. It also has a significant effect on decreasing the poverty rate. Increasing the county wind power by one-megawatt capacity increases the county’s per capita income by $17 dollars, median household income by approximately $7 dollars, and farm income by $88 dollars. Results of the primary data analysis show that wind power development increased the tax revenue of the rural community without any required public services or increases in population size of the rural communities. I find that counties with larger populations benefit more from wind development, particularly during the construction phase. Substantial wind development leads to an increase in municipal finances of rural counties. This increase has been reflected in improvements on the community services without any negative social impacts. Wind development is a suitable economic source to diversify the rural economy. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................ v ABSTRACT……….. ....................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... xii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................ xv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................... xviii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION OF THE DISSERTATION ............................................................ 1 1.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Questions ......................................................................................... 3 1.3 Research Hypotheses ...................................................................................... 4 1.4 Conceptual Framework ................................................................................... 6 1.4.1 Economic Theories .......................................................................... 6 1.4.2 The Demographic Theories ............................................................ 10 1.4.3 Theories About Community Services: Public Services Changes After Energy Facilities ........................................................................... 13 1.5 Research Design. ........................................................................................... 17 2. EXAMINING THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF WIND POWER DEVELOPMENT ON RURAL AREAS IN THE UNITED STATES .......... 21 2.1 Abstract……… ............................................................................................. 21 2.2 Introduction ................................................................................................... 22 2. 3 Materials And Methods ................................................................................ 24 2.4 Background ................................................................................................... 25 viii 2.4.1 Environmental Impacts .................................................................. 30 2.5 Empirical Analysis Of Studies That Investigated Socioeconomic Impacts Of Wind Power By Approaches ...................... 34 2.5.1 Simulation Models ............................................................. 35 2.5.2 Measured The Ongoing Impacts Using Statistical Approaches ................................................................................ 44 2.5.3 Perception Impacts ............................................................. 57 2.6 Discussions ................................................................................................... 65 2.7 Conclusions.. ................................................................................................. 67 3. THE ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACTS OF WIND POWER DEVELOPMENT ON RURAL COUNTIES IN THE UNITED STATES… 70 3.1 Abstract…….. ............................................................................................... 70 3.2 Introduction ................................................................................................... 71 3.3 Literature Review .......................................................................................... 72 3.3.1 Economic Impacts .......................................................................... 74 3.3.2 Estimating The Gross Impacts