Road accidents and their costs: Case study : IC19 Summary It is estimated that road accidents are responsible for over 1.2 million fatalities every year, all over the world. In the countries that belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the death toll from these accidents rises up to 180.000. The data for 2007 points to 42 854 dead on European roads (EU 27), which represents a substantial reduction compared to 1997's 60 267 fatalities. In Portugal, road accidents alone represent the first cause of non natural deaths, with 776 fatalities in 2008, according to data from the Autoridade Nacional de Segurança Rodoviária (ANSR). In view of these facts, government entities have implemented a set of measures and actions to prevent road accidents. The most important of these measures was the implementation of Operation Zero Tolerance, Maximum Security when António Guterres was in office as Prime-Minister (between 1999 and 2002), the implementation of the Plano Nacional de Prevenção Rodoviária (PNPR), in 2003, under the PSD/CDS PP coalition government led by Durão Barroso and the National Strategy for Road Safety's (ENSR) implementation in 2008. This strategy was implemented by the joint action of the National Authority for Road Safety (ANSR) and the ISCTE, during the term of office of José Sócrates as Prime - Minister of the socialist government. Governo PS Governo PSD/CDS Governo PS PP Figure 1 – Statistics of the number of accidents with injured, seriously injured and fatalities in Portugal– 1999-2007 The mainland Portugal's road accidents were analysed, between 1999 and 2007 and a significant reduction of all road accident indicators taken in account (number of accidents with victims, number of fatalities, injured and seriously injured) was verified. The results presented were a consequence of the prevention of road accidents implemented by the government in office at the time. Figure 2 - Accidents by type of road between 1999 e 2007 The number of accidents with injuries was studied per type of road, highlighting the number of accidents in streets and in National Roads. By studying the accidents by type of road (figure 2) it was possible to highline the accidents on streets and national roads .Contrary to common belief, the Highways turned out to be the route with the lowest accident rate, although their average speeds are higher.These results led to assume that speed has proven to be a potential cause of accidents, only when road safety is compromised (speeding). The number of accidents with victims was studied in the Lisbon area, between the years 1999 and 2007. From the bibliographic data collected, collisions were considered as the main type of accidents with victims, with focus on frontal and side collisions. The impact of the run over’s and of the cars leaving the track were similar in most of the studied pointers keeping it’s ratio throughout the years. It is thought that most of the accidents where cars involved came off the road and that led to fatalities may be associated to fatigue or sleepiness. This conclusion was reached from observing the existence of similarities between the number of deaths that resulted from this kind of accident and the average number of weekly working hours. It was found that collisions presented more serious consequences, which led to more fatalities and serious injuries in every 100 accidents of this nature. It is noted still that the number of injured was in average 3 per acident resulting of collison The cars that went off track resulted in a high death toll and injuries which led to a lower serious injuries count from that observed in run over’s. Against the common thought often shared by public opinion, it was found that run over’s were the least fatal type of accident, but which lead to a greater number of seriously injured. Recognising the range of variables associated to the theme of road accidents, the existence of global parameters (Macro parameters) and of specific parameters (Micro parameters) was considered. The Macro parameters were considered of general extent, their influence analysed in road accidents of the roads of a certain region. The Micro parameters were considered as inherent factors of a particular road, contributing directly to the number of accidents observed . Through this analysis the truthfulness of certain assumptions the public opinion had about the relation between: the population growth; the increase of the number of vehicles; the increase of the traffic and circulation speed with the increase of the road accidents, was determined. The Macro parameters were established to be: the population growth; the economic development (presenting, as an analysis indicator, the Gross Internal Product- GBP) the development of housing (shown by the number of housing permits and homes built) and the number of vehicles in circulation (using, as a measuring indicator, the number of insurance policy on vehicles The Micro parameters were established to be: Average Annual Daily Traffic, the circulation speed and the Level of Service parameters (defined by the Level of Service and by the maximum capacity of the road). The population growth was analysed in mainland Portugal and in the Lisbon district (figure 3). Figure 3 – Number of inhabitants and number of accidents with victims in the district of Lisbon between 1999 and 2007 By observing the obtained results, it was possible to state that the population increase coincided with a steep decrease in road accidents. In face of these results, it was not possible to determine any relation between these two indicators and for this reason it is concluded that the population increase doesn't affect the increase in road accidents. The impact of the GBP increase on the variation in the number of road accidents in mainland Portugal and in the Lisbon district was also studied. Through the observation of the results, one can confirm that the periods of slower GBP growth coincide with periods of greater political instability. It was thought that these factors could be responsible for the delays in the launching of great public works, in particular in the road transport area, that gave a contribution for the improvement of road safety. However, it wasn't possible to establish any relation between the GBP's growth tendencies and the periods of slower decrease of road accidents. The GBP's growth, however, did influence the number of circulating vehicles. The impact that the variation in the number of vehicles had on the accidents in the Lisbon district was taken in consideration (figure 4). By analysing the results, one can observe that an increase in the number of vehicles coincided with a decrease in the number of accidents with victims in this area. Figura 4 - Número de acidentes com vítimas e número de apólices de seguros emitidas a veículos, no distrito de Lisboa, entre 2000 e 2007 It is noted that the inverse behavior observed between both indicators can be explained by the dependence of road safety in vehicles. It is understood that the renewing of the vehicles introduced improvements in circulating vehicles. By presenting more efficient active and passive safety systems, and better circulating conditions, it is believed that the vehicles’ capabilities to correct driving mistakes has improved, avoiding or minimizing the consequences of some of the accidents. By examining the information, contrary to public opinion, it is considered that the insurance policy increase, admitting the consequent increase in the number of new vehicles circulating, has contributed to minimise the accidents in the Lisbon area. Finally, the variation in the number of housing permits in the Lisbon area was studied. This analysis made it possible to observe the existence of a relation between the number of inhabitants and the number of permits in this area. In the analysis of the relation between this parameter's evolution and the variation of road accidents, it is of note that an increase in the number of housing permits coincides with a decrease in the number of accidents in the Lisbon area. Although the housing growth should imply, in theory, an increase in traffic, it's influence in promoting construction and improvement of infra-structures has introduced an improvement, in road safety conditions, promoting a decrease in road accidents. As a case study, the road accidents and their costs were examined, on the IC19, where road design and interchanges were noted. During this analysis, the different fases of widening and improvement works were taken into consideration (that led to increasing from 2 to 3 lanes each way), during the timeline studied (between 1999 and 2007). The number of accidents with victims in Pontos Negros, was taken into consideration (fig. 5), observing different variations, though presenting a general tendency to decrease. Figure 5 – Number of accidents in Pontos Negros in IC19 between 1999 and 2007 From the results obtained it is admitted that the existence of troços under obras lead to a reduction of speed and consequently to the reduction of the occurrence of accidents although they limit the freedom of drivers. To confirm some conclusions taken from the analysis of the Macro Parameters in the evolution of road accidents in mainland Portugal and in the district of Lisbon, these parameters were studied in what concerns the municipalities served by the IC19. The analysis of the population growth in the municipalities of Oeiras, Cascais, Amadora, Sintra and Lisbon, confirmed the results obtained for mainland Portugal and the district of Lisbon. It wasn’t possible to establish a correlation between the increase of the population and the increase of the number of accidents. On the other hand, in what concerns the study of the urban growth impact (through the analysis of housing permits in road accidents in the district of Lisbon, it is considered that housing growth in the municipalities near IC19, didn’t allow any correlation with road accidents on this road between 1999 and 2007.