Metrobus Market Assessment and Strategic Direcons Study FINAL REPORT 2011 St. John’s Transportation Commission (Metrobus) 2011 Market Assessment and Strategic Directions Study – Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY STUDY PROCESS Metrobus engaged Dillon Consulting Limited to provide a Market Assessment and Strategic Directions Study for the St. John’s transit system. The need for this study was precipitated by the decline in reported transit ridership since the major service changes in 2007. Both the accuracy of ridership reporting and the integrity of the revenue collection and handling systems were reviewed. As well, a major onboard passenger survey was conducted on March 23rd, 2010 to understand the characteristics of current transit users and to probe their reactions to the recent service changes. Additional surveys were conducted with post secondary students, local businesses and the general public (through the Metrobus web site). Individual stakeholder meetings and focus groups with system personnel and transit users also contributed valuable input to the study. The current services were reviewed by an experienced team of consultants and suggestions offered for system enhancements and productivity improvements. Future transit market opportunities were identified for their potential to generate ridership growth and assessed for the resulting implications on Metrobus. Finally, the material gathered and analyzed was used to assist Metrobus management staff in updating their existing Five Year Strategic Plan for the period 2011 to 2015. KEY FINDINGS Concerning the integrity of the revenue collection and handling systems, the review indicated that there is no cause for concern. Duties are clear and separated, secure processes are in place and revenue is protected. The decline in reported ridership was certainly more challenging to assess. As well as the 2007 service changes, the introduction of the very successful M-Card system in 2006 may have led to greater certainty in the reported ridership, as the methodology for reporting is different under the new system and M-Card has created a shift from cash fares to tickets and passes. A number of external factors are also seen as contributors to ridership decline. These include population growth in areas not served by Metrobus, employment growth in sectors/locations not easily served by transit, a pattern of land use development that is not supportive of transit (low density urban sprawl) and the increased economic prosperity of the region which favours automobile travel over public transit. Greater affordability of auto ownership combined with moderate operating costs, limited road congestion and parking policies/pricing that do not favour transit are also major contributors to the decline in transit usage. The passenger survey indicated that a significant majority of users were positive or neutral concerning the 2007 service changes; there was little dissatisfaction expressed. A detailed analysis of passenger survey results is contained in Appendix E of the report and these survey results provide guidance on desired service improvements and a useful benchmark for future transit assessments. Given the higher incomes being experienced by residents in St. John’s, it becomes evident that to attract ridership, strategies must be put in place to increase the level of service provided. As indicated in the various user survey’s and stakeholder interviews, level of service is a key determinant Dillon Consulting Limited Page i St. John’s Transportation Commission (Metrobus) 2011 Market Assessment and Strategic Directions Study – Executive Summary of transit use, and areas that were seen to need improvement include service frequency, travel time and the need to transfer, and improvements in off-peak service hours (evenings and weekends). Major market opportunities exist within and adjacent to the Metrobus service area. One of the big drives will be to better capture a larger share of the post-secondary market through improvements in overall service levels to Memorial University and the College of the North Atlantic (CNA). An effectively way to drive demand and better utilize these types of service improvements is through the implementation of a Universal Transit Pass (U-Pass) for post-secondary students. The pass program is a revenue neutral initiative that would need to be ratified by the student union, but would lead to significant ridership growth and dramatically change the level of transit service that could be provided, benefiting all members of the community. Care must be taken in negotiating the financial arrangements for such a program, but based on experience in comparable settings many positive effects could result. An expansion to region-wide transit service delivery to address the population growth outside the current service area is another market opportunity and provincial facilitation is needed to help the local municipalities achieve regional cooperation. Metrobus provides the ideal service delivery platform for regional transit in the greater St. John’s area. The aging of the population and the concentration of seniors within the City of St. John’s is a third market consideration. The current pass fare for seniors is very low and not always reflective of the economic profile of this group. Low fare for seniors will impact the ability of Metrobus to fund future operations as the population continues to age and more seniors use the service. Adjusting the senior’s pass rate to one that is more in line with income rather than age would help offset the reduction in revenues that will result under the present system. Affordability related issues should continue to be dealt with via the social service department. Moving to a ‘family of services’ approach which more effectively addresses the travel needs of both seniors and persons with disabilities, is recommended as a cost effective strategy for these markets. A partnership between Metrobus, the Seniors Resource Centre and other groups focused on seniors should be pursued to enable travel training for seniors on conventional services and to develop targeted approaches such as Community Bus. A partnership approach is also proposed for providing custom designed transit services for employees in industrial parks and innovative strategies such as Zone bus and Transcab are suggested to more productively serve periods of low demand (e.g. Sundays) and areas remote from the main corridors and with relatively low demand. The existing transit terminals are highlighted as targets for improved design that will increase passenger convenience, operational efficiency and safety. Route interlining and transit priority measures at these locations would significantly benefit the system and its users by reducing physical transfers, improving travel time and promoting ridership growth. Extended time transfers should also be considered to benefit users and local businesses while increasing ridership and reducing disputes between staff and users. Finally, one of the core recommendations in this plan is the need for increased partnerships and communication between city and Metrobus staff to help meet the common goals of the two organizations, increase the transit mode share within the greater St. John’s area, improve the effectiveness of service delivery, and promote increased transit ridership. Transit cannot reach both ridership and financial performance targets alone. It must operate within a structure that recognizes the importance of land use, parking, roads, traffic and municipal investment on the ability to provide Dillon Consulting Limited Page ii St. John’s Transportation Commission (Metrobus) 2011 Market Assessment and Strategic Directions Study – Executive Summary adequate accessibility and mobility within St. John’s. More timely and frequent communication at the staff level on land use planning, transit oriented design, traffic and transit priority measures, and parking supply and pricing are areas to be considered moving forward. The material in this report will also be used to provide input to an update of the Metrobus Strategic plan for the period 2011 to 2015. Dillon Consulting Limited Page iii St. John’s Transportation Commission (Metrobus) 2011 Market Assessment and Strategic Directions Study – Executive Summary Dillon Consulting Limited Page iv St. John’s Transportation Commission (Metrobus) 2011 Market Assessment and Strategic Directions Study – Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Page PART A: BACKGROUND ..................................................................................1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................1 2.0 CONSULTATION ACTIVITIES .................................................. 3 2.1 Transit Website Feedback and Survey ...................................................3 2.2 Online Post-Secondary Student Surveys.................................................3 2.3 Online Employer Survey.........................................................................3 2.4 On-Board Passenger Survey ...................................................................4 2.5 Stakeholder Interviews............................................................................6 2.6 Focus Groups..........................................................................................6 2.7 Public Open House ................................................................................7 3.0 SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS....................................................