Inside >> No. 17 Muhammad Issam Syrian State Media More Than 400,000 Two Aid Workers Hazima Appointed Promote Denmark’s COVID-19 Vaccine Killed in SDF-held Central Bank Declaration That Doses Reach Syria Deir-ez-Zor Governor Damascus is ‘Safe’ Following the UAE’s lead, Local conditions make Hazima replaces The incident reveals the China steps up COVID Basira especially ousted CBS governor risks of giving fodder to support to Damascus challenging for aid Hazem Qarfoul the Syrian regime Pg 6 implementation Pg 5 Pg 5 Pg 6 26 April 2021 | Vol. 4 | 26 April 2021 | Vol. New Armed Group in Syrians in Sweden IS Attacks Continue As-Sweida as Local File Chemical in Eastern Syria Tensions Flare Weapons Suit IS increases attacks Social tensions in Against Syrian in the northeast As-Sweida Governorate Officials Pg 8 Pg 7 Chemical attack victims seek redress under date universal jurisdiction Pg 7 Quamishli Clashes Bring Arab-Kurd Tensions to the Surface > Page 2 Syria Up An Asayish humvee sits in Tayy neighbourhood after the group seized control over the area from Government-aligned NDF fighters. Weekly Political, Economic, and Security Outlook Political, Weekly Image courtesy of Euphrates Post. 02 Syria Update | In-Depth Analysis n one of the most intense eruptions of violence in The gravity pulling large Arab tribes in northeast Syria in northeast Syria toward overt political causes recent memory, >Autonomous Administration and factionalised armed groups may be security forcesI have seized control over Tayy neighbourhood, the main a cause of additional tension, and it may Quamishli stronghold of the Syiran Government-aligned National fan the flames of local struggles for power Defense Forces (NDF). On 20 April, between those tribes and the SDF. armed clashes broke out following a checkpoint dispute, setting off a series of on-and-off Russian- take back control of checkpoints two major fault lines in northeast brokered deals. Large numbers of seized by the Asayish and affiliated Syria. The first is the extent of NDF members have reportedly fled Anti-Terror Units (HAT). A large foreign influence in the region. the city toward nearby villages, number of residents of Tayy Local sources indicate that Russia while civilian residents of Tayy neighbourhood were displaced by is using the events to pressure the neighbourhood have also been the fighting, andseveral civilians Quamishli NDF, which Moscow displaced. The clashes are notable were reported killed or wounded. is said to view as a liability. not only for their intensity, relapse Tayy tribal leaders are said to into violence, and death toll, but also Between 22-25 April, Russia have advocated against Russian for the underlying tensions they facilitated a series of meetings at mediation out of concern that reveal. The developments pose a Quamishli Airport between the Russia had allowed the process to significant test of Russia’s capacity Asayish forces and Government drag on as the SDF-aligned forces as a mediator in northeast Syria, of Syria military officers to gained the upper hand. Even the and they have added to ongoing cement a ceasefire agreement Government of Syria itself refrained initiatives by Arab tribes in the in the city. The deal that came from providing overt support to region to attain greater autonomy into effect on 23 April entailed the embattled NDF, and its 154th even under the auspices of the a complete ceasefire, the return Regiment, or Tartab Regiment, Autonomous Administration. of civilian residents displaced by has sat on the sidelines during the fighting, and the deployment the clashes. Nonetheless, there is The chain of events began with of Russian patrols around Tayy reason to believe Russia is also the arrest of Abdelfattah al- neighbourhood as observers. Like grasping for leverage over the Lylo — an NDF commander and the agreement that came before it, Autonomous Administration’s member of the Tayy tribe — by however, the more comprehensive security forces. On 21 April, media the Autonomous Administration’s Russian ceasefire also broke down, sources reported that Russian Asayish forces at a checkpoint in and clashes expanded to Halko forces unexpectedly withdrew from Al-Wihdah Circle (for more on the neighbourhood. On 25 April, two military bases in northern Tayy and northeast Syria’s tribes, Asayish announced what it Syria, near Tall Refaat and Deir see: Tribal Tribulations: Tribal characterised as a permanent Jmal, exposing them to attack from Mapping and State Actor Influence ceasefire in the neighbourhood nearby frontlines with Turkish in Northeastern Syria). At least under the joint auspices of Russia forces. Russia’s stick-and-carrot 10 NDF fighters and three members and the Syrian Democratic Forces tactics echo previous instances in of the Asayish were killed in two (SDF), and it urged all displaced which Moscow has pressured the days of fighting that ensued, as the residents to return to their homes. SDF by permitting Turkish-backed opposing sides vied for control over forces to attack SDF positions (see: Tayy neighbourhood. Although Beyond mediation: Russia Syria Update 7 December 2020). Moscow brokered a ceasefire on co-opts allies and enemies 20 April, the fighting resumed the The breakout of intense violence However, Russian prestige in following day as the NDF sought to in Quamishli brings to the surface northeast Syria is also being In-Depth Analysis | Syria Update 03 reported that members of the Jabbour tribe convened a meeting in Tal Tawel, north of Al-Hasakeh city, to discuss the possibility of creating an explicitly tribal armed group. The formation would resemble the Sanadeed Forces, an armed group of the Shammar tribe, in that it would theoretically serve under the command structure of the SDF, thus fulfilling the military service requirement for tribesmen while allowing them to serve within their own communities. The gravity pulling large Arab tribes in northeast Syria toward overt political causes and factionalised Civilians flee Tayy neighborhood as clashes erupt between the Asayish and NDF. Image courtesy of Jisr TV. armed groups may be a cause of additional tension, and it may fan the flames of local struggles for challenged by Iran. Media sources During the latest bout of fighting in power between those tribes and now report that Iranian-backed Quamishli, a notable figure in a clan the SDF. Economic considerations militia groups have recently belonging to Tayy tribe was killed are also pertinent. Clashes between intensified recruitment in by sniper fire following a mediation the Sanadeed Forces and the SDF Quamishli and Al-Hasakeh cities, session. Tribes in Al-Hasakeh on 5 February over control of the targeting Arab tribesmen, the Governorate have generally sought three border crossings with Iraq are NDF, and members of the 154th to triangulate political positions illustrative of the linkage between Regiment. Russia may still use its that reduce their risk exposure from armed groups and war economy mediator role to pressure tribesmen authorities of all types. In response activities. For aid implementers, to refrain from cooperating to the latest incidents, however, issues such as these are also an with Iran. Indeed, the Russian various tribal leaders have urged indication that even as conflict- willingness to undermine the Arab tribesmen to mobilise against related violence in Syria is ebbing, growing Iranian influence in the the SDF, a sentiment captured in a deep social tensions may continue city has, to an extent, overlapped 23 April statement released by the to grow. with the Asayish’s hopes of Tayy tribe. In response, on 25 April, expelling NDF members from a counter-statement by other tribal Quamishli, reportedly one of the figures in Quamishliurged the main objectives it pursued in the Asayish and SDF to oust the NDF deal reached on 25 April. from the city. The second, and arguably more There are other signs that tribal important impact concerns the overt identity and historical grievances politicisation of Arab tribal identity are gaining force as political in Syria’s northeast. The Quamishli rallying cries. The relationship NDF is seen as an arm of the Tayy between Arab tribes and the SDF tribe, which is the most prominent in northeast Syria has deteriorated in the city. The tribe’s historical over the last year for reasons animosity with the region’s Kurds including military conscription into primed the pump for the recent the SDF and the poor state of service clashes, which have taken on clear provision and the economy as a tribal and ethnic dimensions. whole. On 12 March, local sources Syria Update Adding to an already unstable local environment replete with access “ challenges, the killings will complicate aid delivery in the southern reaches of SDF-held Deir-ez-Zor Governorate. See: Point No. 4 Below ” 3 6 VARIOUS LOCATIONS SWEDEN More Than 400,000 Syrians in Sweden File TURKEY COVID-19 Vaccine Chemical Weapons Suit Doses Reach Syria Against Syrian Officials Malikiyeh Quamishli Jarablus Tell Abiad Azaz Tal Tamer Afrin Al-Hasakeh Menbij Al Bab Ein Issa Aleppo Ar-Raqqa Idleb Saraqab Ma'arrat Lattakia At-Tabqa An Nu'man Deir-Ez-Zor Hama Basira Tartous 4 Shiheil Homs TadmorTwo Aid Workers Killed in SDF-held Deir-ez-Zor Abu Kamal7 IS Attacks Continue LEBANON in Eastern Syria 2 Beirut Syrian State Media Duma Damascus Promote Denmark’s Declaration That IRAQ 1 Damascus is ‘Safe’ As-Sanamayn Muhammad Issam Hazima Appointed Quneitra Central Bank Governor As-Sweida 5 Dar'a Qaraya New Armed Group in As-Sweida as Local JORDAN Tensions Flare Community Size ■ Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) ■ Islamic State (IS) ■ Turkish-backed opposition groups Greater than Less than Humantarian Social Security Regional Economy Governance ■ Armed Oppostion Groups (AOGs) Issues Intervention 1,000,000 1,000 ■ Government of Syria (GoS) 05 Syria Update | Whole of Syria Review Hazima’s tenure, it is not clear what and Rural Damascus.