Research Report Leiden Model United Nations 2015 ~ fresh ideas, new solutions ~ Forum: General Assembly Fourth Committee Issue: Climate Change Refugees Student Officer: Samuel Gang Position: Chair Introduction Climate change is not a new phenomenon. Hence, throughout the history of mankind, civilizations and societies have exhibited various efforts to adjust to climate fluctuations whether by migration, alteration of agricultural patterns, or by adaptation of economical facets. Such adjustments and adaptations proved to be both opportunistic (exploiting some positive properties of climate change) and protective (guarding against negative impacts of climate change). Over the long span of history, adaptation to climate has been successful in many cases. Scientists, historians, and anthropologists view humans as one of the most adaptable creatures on earth. However, the accounts of collapsed civilizations and societies indicate that coping with climate change has neither always been simple nor successful. Yet, many societies have been able to flourish despite their existence in extreme climate zones. Again and again, the adroit use of knowledge and technology allowed humans to adapt in almost every possible topography. However, that has not always been the case in the modern day as climate change deteriorates and global warming persists. As climate change persists, the number of environmental migrants, commonly known as climate change refugees, also grows proportionally. Environmental migrant refers to any people who migrates due to climate fluctuations or a sudden change to local environment such as, but not limited to, desertification, sea level rise, monsoons, and droughts. Often times, such refugees may either be internally or externally displaced based on their situation. Definition of Key Terms Climate Change Climate Change is the long-term shift in weather patterns mainly caused by human activities leading to an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the planet’s atmosphere. The term fundamentally covers precipitation, atmospheric conditions and temperature. Scientific curiosity regarding climate change has existed for decades, and now remains as a serious concern within the international society. Emerging scientific evidence clearly indicates that perennial growth in greenhouse emissions isthe cause that leads Research Report Leiden Model United Nations 2015 ~ fresh ideas, new solutions ~ to an eventual rise in sea levels, depletion of the ozone layer, persistent drought, extreme weather levels, ocean acidification, and deforestation. These malaises further impose a serious threat to food security and agriculture, disrupting efforts to eradicate poverty, achieve sustainable development and maintain human health principles. Furthermore, those are the root causes of climate change refugees. As the United Nations Secretary General has emphasized, “it is the major, overriding environmental issue of our time, and the single greatest challenge facing environmental regulators.” Global climates are changing in unprecedented and irreversible scale, and available tools must be applied imminently in order to mitigate the situation. Refugee The 1951 Refugee Convention designated a refugee as someone who leaves his country because persecution based of nationality, religion, race, social class, or political opinion and is unable to remain safe within his or her own nation or return to it. Previously, the term Refugee was not often associated with climate change or global warming. However, nowadays climate change refugees are also considered refugees on certain limited premises. There is a clear distinction between a refugee and a migrant. Although they may both travel in a similar way, they are fundamentals different. For that reason, migrants and refugees are different under international laws. Migrants in most cases choose to move in order to improve their livelihood while a refugee has no choice but to move in order to be free from persecution. Hence, climate change refugees are often referred as a migrant rather than a refugee. However, the lack of clear precise definition for environmental migrant persists; thus, there is an imminent necessity to clearly define the term internationally. Environmental Migrant As mentioned previously, there is a lack of clear definition for this term. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has defined “Environmental migrants {as} persons or groups of persons who, for reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to have to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their territory or abroad.” General Overview With millions of people displaced from their homes in the past few years, various international organizations and international communities has begun to designate the issue of climate change refugee as an urgent issue to resolve imminently. Hence, many nations, whether significantly affected by climate or environmental change or not, began to contribute in solving this issue. Previously, the issue of climate change refugee was one that was not commonly discussed or given sufficient attention. However, it should not be misunderstood that the issue was insignificant. The issue of environmental migrant and climate refugee is something that has been ongoing since the beginning of human race. In the year 2012 Research Report Leiden Model United Nations 2015 ~ fresh ideas, new solutions ~ alone, approximately 33 million people were forced to flee their homes due to natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and storms. Such incidents continue to claim thousands of lives and cause forced migration. In 2006, the government of the Maldives organized a meeting consisting of other national governments, NGOs and United Nations agencies in order to debate the question of protection and resettlement of climate refugees. For a small island country such as the Maldives, this question was vital to discuss for the sake of its national security and in the strongest terms, the survival of the Maldives. Not only the Maldives, but also other island nations who are endangered by climate change and sea rise have begun to express concern and have taken the issue to an international level. Moreover, it is most likely for low- lying islands to be the first to suffer from global warming. Already, many atolls began to disappear and became inhabitable. Even worse, climate change related migration may escalate into a bigger, global crisis which will be beyond the threats that has previously been limited to few island nations. Many estimations concluded that approximately up to 150 million people may be displaced by the year 2050 due to climate and environmental change under the current status quo. However, such estimations may be incorrect under certain terms as it altercates on population growth, temperature increase, and economic development assumptions. Although such prediction may or may not be accurate, most scenarios agree that in this century, global warming will forcefully displace millions of people especially in Africa and Asia. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 assessment has revealed that at the worst scenarios, by 2080, the global temperature will increase one to two degrees and that storms could negatively impact around 100 million people each year. Furthermore, such drastic temperature increase may cause gradual sea- level rise which will endanger low- lying coasts. Hence, tens of thousands of small islands will be at risk with the possibility of being flooded. In cases that sea level rises more than 1 meter, island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, and the Maldives will steadily become uninhabitable. Even worse, the global warming will cause droughts and significantly increase water scarcity. Multiple researches predict that a rise of 1-2 degrees in temperature could possibly lead to water shortages for approximately 1 billion people. The population of Latin America, Africa, and island states are the most susceptible to become climate change refugees. Asia is vulnerable primarily because of its highly and densely populated areas which include low- lying coastal areas. Moreover, such areas are also vulnerable to highly damaging monsoons and tropical cyclones. On the other hand, in river deltas in Africa of Nigeria and Egypt are also susceptible to sea- level rise. Furthermore, drought and water scarcity will also negatively impact millions of Africans, and even worse, already fourteen African countries are currently experiencing water scarcity. In the Western Hemisphere, in Uruguay and Venezuela, Research Report Leiden Model United Nations 2015 ~ fresh ideas, new solutions ~ thousands of people reside in areas where risk of flooding is extremely high; meanwhile, millions of Mexicans and Guatemalans are facing increasing droughts. Although climate continues to fluctuate and migrants increase, most environmental migrants and climate change refugees are expected to remain in the premises of their home countries since climate change, in most cases, does not affect the entire country. However, recent studies indicate that such migrants could possibly cross international boundaries and borders. For example, the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre Global Strategic Trend Programme of the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense expects large climate change migration from sub- Saharan Africa towards