ELECTION LEGITIMACY IN THE UNITED STATES: EFFECTS ON POLITICAL EFFICACY, TRUST AND PARTICIPATION by Stephanie C McLean BA Hons, University of Melbourne, 1997 MA, University of Melbourne, 2000 MA, University of Pittsburgh, 2006 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment Of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2006 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH FACULTY OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This dissertation was presented by Stephanie C McLean It was defended on August 3, 2006 And approved by David C Barker, Associate Professor of Political Science Chris W Bonneau, Assistant Professor of Political Science Dietlind Stolle, Professor of Political Science Dissertation Advisor: Jon Hurwitz, Professor of Political Science ii Copyright © by Stephanie C McLean 2006 iii ELECTORAL LEGITIMACY IN THE UNITED STATES: EFFECTS ON POLITICAL EFFICACY, TRUST AND PARTICIPATION Stephanie C McLean, MA University of Pittsburgh, 2006 The 2000 presidential election was a disaster for the legitimacy of the electoral process in America, leaving lasting impressions on citizens’ attitudes and behaviors regarding campaigns and elections. This dissertation has two main goals. The first is to discover the determinants of attitudes about election fairness in the United States. In broad terms, this is an exploration of the variables that influence attitudes about controversial moments in American politics. More specifically, the emphasis is on the comparative importance of procedural concerns, partisan interest, and ideological differences in determining attitudes about the fairness of American elections. Second, I investigate the effect of different kinds of procedural problems in elections on political attitudes and behaviors. Variables of interest include trust in government, political efficacy, interest and participation in campaign activity. This study focuses on attitudes and behaviors related to the 2000 presidential election, and to a lesser extent, subsequent elections in 2002 and 2004. It also provides original experimental data that involves hypothetical election scenarios, with variation in procedural problems and election outcomes. The decline in trust in government and political participation widely noted by scholars in recent years suggests that perceptions of procedural problems and self-interested political actors may play a part in public disillusionment with government and democratic processes. Overall, then, this dissertation is a study of the consequences of watershed events in American politics on faith and engagement in the political process. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................ X 1.0 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................ 1 1.1 ELECTIONS AND IDEOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES: ACCESS VERSUS INTEGRITY ......................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 ELECTION PROBLEMS 2000–2004.............................................................. 10 1.2.1 Election Technology.................................................................................... 13 1.2.2 Provisional, Absentee and Early Voting ................................................... 17 1.2.3 Statewide Voter Registration Databases, Photo ID, and Other Registration Issues ..................................................................................................... 22 1.2.4 Racial Issues ................................................................................................ 25 1.2.5 Polling Places, Including Accessibility for Disabled Voters.................... 29 1.2.6 Legal Preparations for 2004....................................................................... 31 1.3 RESEARCH DESIGN....................................................................................... 33 1.4 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 35 2.0 CHAPTER TWO: TRUST, EFFICACY AND PARTICIPATION: THE MEANING OF ELECTORAL PROBLEMS........................................................................... 36 2.1 DECLINING TRUST IN GOVERNMENT: UNJUST PROCEDURES ..... 38 2.1.1 What Is Political Trust? ............................................................................. 39 2.1.2 What Decline? ............................................................................................. 41 2.1.3 Why the Decline? ........................................................................................ 43 2.1.4 Procedural Justice and the Electoral System ........................................... 48 2.2 CONSEQUENCES: SUPPORT FOR THE ELECTORAL PROCESS, POLITICAL EFFICACY, AND PARTICIPATION...................................................... 55 2.2.1 Diffuse and Specific Support for the Electoral Process........................... 55 v 2.2.2 Consequences: Political Efficacy and Political Participation ................. 59 2.3 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 66 3.0 CHAPTER THREE: ELECTION ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOR: SURVEY DATA ANALYSIS...................................................................................................................... 68 3.1 DETERMINANTS OF ATTITUDES TOWARD THE 2000 ELECTION.. 69 3.1.1 Data and Methods....................................................................................... 77 3.1.2 Results .......................................................................................................... 80 3.1.3 Discussion..................................................................................................... 86 3.2 ATTITUDE AND BEHAVIOR CHANGES CAUSED BY THE 2000 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.......................................................................................... 90 3.2.1 Data and Methods....................................................................................... 92 3.2.2 Discussion..................................................................................................... 96 3.2.3 Conclusion ................................................................................................... 99 4.0 CHAPTER FOUR: EXPERIMENTAL DATA ANALYSIS ............................... 103 4.1 THE EXPERIMENT....................................................................................... 105 4.2 DETERMINANTS OF FAIRNESS ATTITUDES: SERIOUSNESS, TYPES, OUTCOMES...................................................................................................... 108 4.2.1 “Seriousness”............................................................................................. 109 4.2.2 “Types and Outcomes”............................................................................. 114 4.2.3 Conclusion ................................................................................................. 120 4.3 EFFECTS OF ELECTORAL PROBLEMS ON ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOR ...................................................................................................................... 122 4.3.1 Political Efficacy........................................................................................ 123 4.3.2 Diffuse and Specific Support for the Electoral System ......................... 125 4.3.3 Political Behavior...................................................................................... 134 4.3.4 Conclusion: Results of Electoral Problems............................................. 139 4.3.5 Conclusion: Entire .................................................................................... 141 5.0 CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION ........................................................................ 143 5.1 WHAT DETERMINES FAIRNESS ATTITUDES?.................................... 144 5.2 EFFECTS OF FAIRNESS JUDGMENTS.................................................... 146 5.3 FUTURE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS STUDY, AND A FEW CAVEATS 148 vi 5.4 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................ 151 APPENDIX A............................................................................................................................ 152 APPENDIX B ............................................................................................................................ 154 APPENDIX C............................................................................................................................ 156 APPENDIX D............................................................................................................................ 172 APPENDIX E ............................................................................................................................ 174 APPENDIX F ............................................................................................................................ 176 APPENDIX G............................................................................................................................ 178 APPENDIX H............................................................................................................................ 182 BIBLIOGRAPHY..................................................................................................................... 183 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1.1: Attitudes Toward Current Year Elections: Ordinal Logistic Regression Coefficients