Potential Effects on Fraser River Salmon from an oil spill by the Trans Mountain Expansion Project Kate A. Logan, MSc, RPBio 1485 Elm Street, Prince George, BC V2L 1C5 David Scott, MRM Andrew Rosenberger, BSc Misty MacDuffee, BSc May 26, 2015 Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 13 2 FISH HABITAT ...................................................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Lower Fraser River and its Tributaries ........................................................................................ 16 2.2 Fraser River Estuary and Delta .................................................................................................... 18 2.3 Salish Sea ..................................................................................................................................... 21 3 OIL PROPERTIES, BEHAVIOUR AND FATE IN THE AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT ...................................... 24 3.1 Products That May be Carried in the Pipeline ............................................................................ 25 3.1.1 Crude Oil ............................................................................................................................. 25 3.1.2 Diluted bitumen .................................................................................................................. 26 3.1.3 Condensate ......................................................................................................................... 27 3.2 Behaviour and Fate of Spilled Oil ................................................................................................ 28 3.2.1 Modeling a Potential Spill ................................................................................................... 28 3.2.2 The densities of oil and water: Float, sink, or submerge .................................................... 30 3.2.3 Weathering ......................................................................................................................... 31 3.2.4 Stranding ............................................................................................................................. 37 3.2.5 Dispersion ........................................................................................................................... 41 3.2.6 Entrainment of oil into sediments ...................................................................................... 42 4 FISH SPECIES AT RISK FROM OIL SPILLS IN THE LOWER FRASER RIVER and Salish Sea ...................... 46 4.1 Fish species in the Lower Fraser River ........................................................................................ 46 4.2 Fish species in the Salish Sea ...................................................................................................... 48 4.3 Fraser River habitat use and vulnerability of Salmonids and Eulachon to oil Exposure ............. 49 4.3.1 Interior Fraser coho salmon ................................................................................................ 53 4.3.2 Lower and other Fraser River coho ..................................................................................... 53 4.3.3 Cultus Lake sockeye salmon ................................................................................................ 53 4.3.4 Fraser River sockeye salmon ............................................................................................... 54 4.3.5 Fraser River Chinook salmon............................................................................................... 54 4.3.6 Fraser River chum salmon ................................................................................................... 54 4.3.7 Fraser River pink salmon ..................................................................................................... 55 2 4.3.8 Provincially managed salmonids ......................................................................................... 55 4.3.9 Fraser River eulachon.......................................................................................................... 56 4.3.10 Impacts to fish habitat ........................................................................................................ 56 4.3.11 Comparing the vulnerability of salmon species .................................................................. 57 4.4 Salish Sea Salmon habitat use and vulnerability to exposure to an oil spill ............................... 60 4.5 Exposure scenarios by receptor: MECHANISMS FOR TOXICITY TO SALMON ............................. 63 4.5.1 Embryos .............................................................................................................................. 63 4.5.2 Juveniles and adults ............................................................................................................ 64 4.6 Invertebrates ............................................................................................................................... 65 5 TOXICITY OF OIL TO FISH ..................................................................................................................... 67 5.1 Acute Toxicity .............................................................................................................................. 67 5.2 Chronic Toxicity ........................................................................................................................... 69 5.2.1 Embryotoxicity .................................................................................................................... 71 5.2.2 Effects on sexual maturation and reproduction ................................................................. 72 5.2.3 Effects on immune function and disease ............................................................................ 73 5.2.4 Genotoxicity and carcinogenicity ........................................................................................ 73 5.2.5 Physiological biomarkers .................................................................................................... 74 5.2.6 Effects on behaviour ........................................................................................................... 76 5.3 Quantitative Measures of Oil and PAH Toxicity to Fish .............................................................. 77 5.4 Factors That Affect Toxicity......................................................................................................... 83 5.4.1 Oil type ................................................................................................................................ 83 5.4.2 Weathering ......................................................................................................................... 83 5.4.3 Photomodification of PAH .................................................................................................. 84 6 CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ........................................................................................................................ 86 6.1 Historic Use of the Lower Fraser River........................................................................................ 86 6.2 Current Use ................................................................................................................................. 87 6.2.1 Fraser Headwaters to Hope ................................................................................................ 87 6.2.2 Lower Fraser ........................................................................................................................ 88 6.3 Implications for Salmon .............................................................................................................. 90 7 Concerns with Trans Mountain’s Submission to the National Energy Board ..................................... 94 7.1 Trans Mountain does not indicate precisely what will be carried in the pipeline ...................... 94 3 7.2 Trans Mountain indicated in their submission that OSA formation will not be a dominant fate of spilled oil ............................................................................................................................................. 94 7.3 Trans Mountain’s assessments of turbidity/TSS were qualitative.............................................. 94 7.4 Trans Mountain did not address the possibility of submerged and/or sunken oil ..................... 94 7.5 In modelling the potential for oil to strand, Trans Mountain assumed a straight channel ........ 94 7.6 It is unclear whether Trans Mountain would consider the use of chemical dispersants in freshwater/enclosed environments ....................................................................................................... 94 7.7 Detection limits in the Gainford study were very high ............................................................... 94 7.8 The Gainford study did not include freshwater or the addition of any kind of sediment or particulate matter ................................................................................................................................... 95 8 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................ 96 9 APPENDICES .....................................................................................................................................