Nom/Logotip de la Universitat on s’ha llegit la tesi A computacional model to predict land-use and cover changes in mountain landscapes Cristian Fondevilla Moreu Dipòsit Legal: L.1696-2014 http://hdl.handle.net/10803/284853 ADVERTIMENT. L'accés als continguts d'aquesta tesi doctoral i la seva utilització ha de respectar els drets de la persona autora. Pot ser utilitzada per a consulta o estudi personal, així com en activitats o materials d'investigació i docència en els termes establerts a l'art. 32 del Text Refós de la Llei de Propietat Intel·lectual (RDL 1/1996). Per altres utilitzacions es requereix l'autorització prèvia i expressa de la persona autora. En qualsevol cas, en la utilització dels seus continguts caldrà indicar de forma clara el nom i cognoms de la persona autora i el títol de la tesi doctoral. No s'autoritza la seva reproducció o altres formes d'explotació efectuades amb finalitats de lucre ni la seva comunicació pública des d'un lloc aliè al servei TDX. 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University of Lleida Department of Mathematics A COMPUTATIONAL MODEL TO PREDICT LAND-USE AND COVER CHANGES IN MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPES Ph.D. Dissertation Cristian Fondevilla Moreu April 2014 A COMPUTATIONAL MODEL TO PREDICT LAND-USE AND COVER CHANGES IN MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPES Ph.D. Dissertation Cristian Fondevilla Moreu April 2014 Cover photography: Kaserstattalm, Neustift im Stubaital, Austria. Summer 2012. Recorded by Cristian Fondevilla Moreu. iv UNIVERSITY OF LLEIDA School of Agrifood and Forestry Science and Engineering (ETSEA) Department of Mathematics A COMPUTATIONAL MODEL TO PREDICT LAND-USE AND COVER CHANGES IN MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPES Ph.D. Dissertation Doctoral Program: Engineering and Information Technologies Supervisors: Dr. M.Àngels Colomer Cugat Dr. Federico Fillat Estaqué Castanesa, April 2014 v vi to my family vii viii Acknowledgements Throughout the three and a half years that lasted the preparation of this thesis I had the opportunity to work with different people and institutions that have helped me to complete and improve my dissertation. These lines are intended to serve as a recognition to all those who contributed to make the presentation of this thesis possible. Firstly, I want to thank the University of Lleida for the financial support received in the form of a PhD scholarship that enabled my full-time devotion to the thesis, and for granting addional support for the research period in Austria. Secondly, my special thanks go to a number of people, who made this thesis possible: To my thesis supervisors, M. Àngels Colomer and Frederic Fillat, who oriented me during this learning period, for all that they have taught me, for their critical comments, for all their suggestions throughout the writing process and for all the moments that we have spent working together in these years. To Delfí Sanuy for believing in me and encouraging me to write a doctoral thesis. To the Department of Mathematics, for its help and support during these years. To Ulrike Tappeiner, responsible for my research stay in Tyrol, for giving me the opportunity to work with her research group for 3 months in the Institute of Ecology at the University of Innsbruck, for her help, guidance and advice. To Erich Tasser, Uta Schirpke, and Georg Leitinger, for their advice, for their comments about the ecology of the Alps and for the information and data they provided me with. To all the PhD students and research staff of the University of Innsbruck, with whom I had such a good time during the days working together and who helped me so much in my adaptation to Innsbruck. To Pascal Schedl, from the Department of Hunting and Fishing of the Government of Tyrol (Austria), for the information and data provided regarding the Stubai Valley. To Tanja, the person I share my life with, for her support throughout the thesis, for her reassurance in the most difficult moments, for her critical comments and her help with the translation to English, for her patience, for her involvement during my stay in Innsbruck... for everything, thanks. And, last but not least, to my family, for all the support received throughout this work and also throughout my life, because without them I would have never reached this point. I could continue this list forever, as so many people have helped and supported me in one way or another. To all of you, thank you very much. ix x "And are there countries with no mountains, father?" "Pare, hi ha països sense muntanyes?" „Giebt's Länder, Vater, wo nicht Berge sind?‟ "Padre, ¿hay países sin montañas?" Friederich Schiller (1804). Wilhelm Tell. Act 3, Scene 3, line 1786. xi xii Contents List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. 17 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ 19 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Resum .......................................................................................................................................... 22 Zusammenfassung....................................................................................................................... 23 Resumen ...................................................................................................................................... 25 Prologue ...................................................................................................................................... 27 Prologue .................................................................................................................................. 28 Objectives ................................................................................................................................ 28 Structure of the thesis ............................................................................................................. 29 Chapter 1. Changes in mountain landscapes .............................................................................. 31 1.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 32 1.2. Land-use and cover change: The LUCC ....................................................................... 32 1.2.1. LUCC's causes ...................................................................................................... 32 1.2.2. Land-use intensification and extensification ...................................................... 34 1.3. Ecological effects of land-use changes ........................................................................ 36 1.4. “What landscape do we want?” Social perceptions of landscape changes ................ 37 1.5. Future scenarios .......................................................................................................... 38 1.6. LUCC modelling ........................................................................................................... 39 Chapter 2. Cellular membrane computing: the P systems ......................................................... 41 2.1. The ecological computational modelling .................................................................... 42 2.2. Cellular membrane computing.................................................................................... 44 2.3. Transition P systems .................................................................................................... 46 2.4. Variants of P