Journal of Cleaner Production 263 (2020) 121154 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Cleaner Production journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro Historical assessment and future sustainability challenges of Egyptian water resources management * ** *** Pingping Luo a, b, Yutong Sun b, , Shuangtao Wang b, , Simeng Wang c, Jiqiang Lyu a, b, , **** Meimei Zhou a, b, , Kenichi Nakagami c, Kaoru Takara d, Daniel Nover e a Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an, 710054, China b School of Water and Environment, Chang’an University, Xi’an, 710054, China c Graduate School of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Japan d Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies (GSAIS) in Human Survivability (Shishu-Kan), Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan e School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, 5200 Lake R, Merced, CA, 95343, USA article info abstract Article history: The sustainable and efficient use of water is of vital importance, and the uneven distribution of water in Received 20 September 2019 the world means that it is especially important for water-scarce countries. Egypt is an arid country with Received in revised form an ancient civilization and a long history that was and remains dependent on the trans-boundary water 31 January 2020 resources of the Nile River. Historically complicated, water resource management in Egypt is becoming Accepted 15 March 2020 more so in the face of urbanization and population growth. We present a comprehensive overview of the Available online 29 March 2020 water management policies in Egypt to identify current trends and conditions. Under the population Handling editor: Xin Tong growth, the available water use for all the governorates is shown the decreasing trend in 2025 compared with that in 2012, but only the available water use in governorate of Red Sea is shown the increasing Keywords: trend with 0.022 BCM(Billion Cubic Meter) in 2025 than that in 2012. Historical assessment of water Water resources management resources management allows for the reconsideration of present conditions and planning for future Historical assessment sustainability challenges. Egypt’s present national plan reflects a transition from traditional approaches Sustainability to demand management. At the same time, responsibility for water resources management has shifted Egypt from the local to the national level. Sustainability of water resource systems will require consideration of Urban development the negative impacts of population growth as well as urban development and further coordination of national and local priorities. This study explores the changes and reforms of water policies in Egypt, as well as challenges and implications for sustainable water governance and management. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction contemporary pressures. Reviewing historical management ap- proaches in Egypt as well as current conditions is very important to As urbanization and population growth exacerbate water plan future water resource management strategies. resource challenges, many countries face water shortages. Egypt is Human society depends on unevenly distributed natural re- a historically water-stressed country that is facing increasing sources for water supply (WWAP, 2014). Over 60% of African pop- ulations suffer from water scarcity according to accepted definitions (scarcity <1000 m3)(Falkenmark et al., 1989) and con- ditions are expected to deteriorate in the future given trends in * Corresponding authors. population growth and climate change (Falkenmark and ** Corresponding author. Rockstrom,€ 2004). The following studies identified unfavorable *** Corresponding authors.Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological water scarcity trends and complex causes, including climate change Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an, 710054 China. and human modification of water resources as the result of popu- **** Corresponding author.Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological lation growth and other factors (Haddeland et al., 2014; Gosling and Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an, 710054 Arnell, 2016). The UNDP Human Development Report (2006) China. concluded that socio-political factors may help release stress due E-mail addresses: [email protected] (Y. Sun), [email protected] (S. Wang), [email protected] (J. Lyu), [email protected] (M. Zhou). to water scarcity, which implies that good management is a key https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121154 0959-6526/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2 P. Luo et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 263 (2020) 121154 solution to reduce water shortages and promote water security. in 2012 and 2025 and the changes between 2012 and 2025. Based Although the notion of Integratlarrtter Resources Management on the historical review assessment and the analysis of present and (IWRM) was first articulated more than 60 years ago, it remains a future conditions of water resource, we provide some detail sug- challenge to implement (Biswas, 2004). Recent insights suggest gestions for improving the future water use efficiency and sus- that adaptive management and learning from experience can add tainable water resource management in Egypt. The results of this value to the IWRM process (Pahl-Wostl, 2007) and reduce the stress study offer insights that will be useful to national and local gov- of water scarcity in the future. It is important that understanding ernments and researchers to identify options for water resources the statement of water quality (Luo et al., 2019) and stopping the management, particularly given trends in global change. pollution is also one of the key measures to release the stress of water scarcity. Human activities have many effects on the water 2. Study area and data collection scarcity problem, it is essential to have a good water resource management to deal with the water shortage problem. Egypt, the most populated country in North Africa, developed Although a great deal of research has focused on water resources rapidly with dramatic increases in population from 1950 to 2020 management, there are ample opportunities to improve the body of (Fig. 1). The estimated population in 2020 under standard pro- knowledge through systematic analyses of historical water re- jections is more than 5 times the 1950 population. The per capita sources management. Historical studies have been conducted at GDP (Gross Domestic Product) also doubled over the last decade many spatial and temporal scales. A historical assessment of water and shows a rising projected growth rate for the next few years. The resource management was conducted for the Veneto Region, Italy, Nile is the longest of the world’s large rivers and 40% of its length to illustrate the historical evolution of water resource management flows through arid and hyper-arid drylands. Egypt is in the in the Veneto region(Rosato and Stellin, 2003). Comparative studies downstream of the Nile River and water is limited due to water of historical flood management in China and Japan were conducted consumption in upper stream reaches in several countries. The IPCC to provide recommendations for sustainably managing future flood summary report of 2013 explains that annual precipitation in the disasters (Luo et al., 2015). Similarly, a research investigated the NRB decreased from 1951 to 2010. In Egypt, annual precipitation of historical pattern of domestic water supply development and the NRB is 200 mm in the coastal region, about 50e100 mm in the IWRM from 1930 in Tanzania and attempted to account for water middle, and nearly zero in the upper stream after the Aswan Dam. supply system failure (Maganga et al., 2002). Water resources As rainfall is not the main source of water in the Egyptian water management in South African was studied for the period 1956 to supply, the country must depend on water from the outflow of the 1998 (Matete, 2005). Several studies focus on the historical review Aswan Dam. of water policy reforms in South Korea (Choi et al., 2017), water Balancing anthropogenic water use and natural supply is resource management policy in Japan (Musiake et al., 2009), and complicated in water-stressed Egypt (Falkenmark and Rockstrom,€ water policy in Canada (Michaels and de Loe,€ 2010). These studies 2004). Kummu et al. (2010) studied global physical water short- offer incitement to meet emerging challenges for sustainable water ages occurring over the last two centuries and found that North management. Contemporary water resources management in- Africa has suffered from water scarcity from the 1900s. Water re- tegrates social and physical sciences, and aims to manage domestic sources challenges in the future are likely to be more severe and water supply and demand, partly through water markets and partly complicated than in the past. Climate change in the NRB poses a through legal and institutional frameworks, particularly in trans- major challenge for water resources management and drives un- boundary basins that face complex management contexts (Lund, certain phenomena in nature, such as flood and droughts, defor- 2015). Loucks and Beek (2017) described water management as estation and loss of biodiversity (UNEP, 2011; Hu et al., 2019). an evolving problem deserving of constant and systematic study, Haddeland et al. (2014) studied models to project basin water and unlikely