REPORT FOR ACTION Damages Sustained from Rising Lake Water Levels and Restoration Plans for Waterfront Parks Date: June 27, 2017 To: City Council From: General Manager, Parks Forestry and Recreation Wards: 6, 13, 14, 19, 20, 28, 30, 32, 36, 43, 44 SUMMARY Water levels in Lake Ontario are at their highest recorded level in more than 100 years. The effect of this flooding has been felt along the entire length of Toronto's waterfront, and particularly at Toronto Island Park where over 800 residents, almost 30 businesses, and two schools have been forced to adapt to rising waters. Many waterfront parks in Toronto have suffered significant shoreline erosion, damage and debris accumulation over the past few months. While a comprehensive inventory of the damage sustained and associated capital costs cannot be developed until the floodwaters recede, emergency work is being undertaken by both City staff and the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA), both of whom have begun to estimate anticipated and realized costs. The estimated cost to the end of July is approximately $4.881 million. However, there are still uncertainties with the final costs, as work is ongoing, and there are known daily remedial costs which are being incurred and will not be completed until the water fully recedes. The safety of the public and the preservation of the waterfront, including Toronto Island Park and the facilities is the first and highest priority. The longer term costing for repair, restoration and future preventive measures will be included in future reports through the budget process and to City Council. RECOMMENDATIONS The General Manager, Parks, Forestry and Recreation recommends that: 1. City Council direct the General Manager, Parks Forestry and Recreation, in consultation with Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, to report back to the November 29th meeting of Executive Committee with a comprehensive inventory of all operating costs, projected to year end associated with the spring flooding of 2017. Damages Sustained from Rising Lake Water Levels and Restoration Plans for Waterfront Parks Page 1 of 11 2, City Council direct the General Manager, Parks Forestry and Recreation, in consultation with TRCA, to report to Executive Committee in Q3 2018 with a comprehensive inventory of all capital costs associated with the Spring flooding of 2017, including repair of existing infrastructure and mitigation strategies. 3. City Council authorize the General Manager of Parks, Forestry and Recreation to temporarily suspend collection of rent and licence fees from Island tenants or licensees as deemed appropriate, until such time as the full financial impact of the flooding is known, and report to executive committee with recommendations on any proposed rent or licence fee forgiveness. FINANCIAL IMPACT Based on the assumption that Toronto Island Operations resume August 1, 2017, Parks, Forestry and Recreation is forecasting a 2017 net financial impact of $4.881 million due to the flooding across the waterfront excluding costs incurred the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA). This is comprised of revenue losses of $4.936 million from ferry operations and permit cancellations, unplanned expenses of $0.429 million totalling $5.365 million which can be partially offset by programming savings of $0.483 million. After the closure of the Park on May 4th, the ferry service access to the park was restricted to residents and authorized personnel, thus having a negative impact on ferry ridership revenue. In May of 2016 the Toronto Island Ferry Service transported almost 140,000 to Toronto Island Park; in 2017 this number was only approximately 14,000. Projected revenue loss due to the closure of the island between May 4th and July 31st is $4.936 million. If the Island remains closed through to the end of August, revenue loss from ferry operations is estimated at a further $2.230 million. Ferry revenue loss estimates are dependent on the number of residents, authorized personnel and stakeholder paid fares. Damages Sustained from Rising Lake Water Levels and Restoration Plans for Waterfront Parks Page 2 of 11 Figure 1 - Estimated Loss Expenses* Savings Revenue Loss Actuals to 06/13/2017 Projected to 07/31/2017 Projected to 07/31/2017 $428,601 $482,879 $4,935,619 Estimated Net Loss to July $4,881,341 31, 2017 Savings Revenue Loss August 1 to August 31 August 1 to August 31 $153,652 2,383,195 Estimated Net Loss, $2,229,543 excluding additional expenses August 1 to August 31, 2017 * Parks, Forestry and Recreation incurs daily costs associated with the flood management. The total costs will not be known until the water recedes and mitigating actions cease. At this time, it is still premature to estimate the total costs and revenue losses to the City. Capital costs for remediation, mitigation and adaptation cannot be fully estimated at this time as the infrastructure is under water and cannot be inspected. If high ground water persists through winter, frost will further exacerbate the infrastructure damage. A full asset evaluation to assess the damage and associated costs will occur when the ground water recedes. It is expected that estimates for emergency capital restoration work will be included as part of the 2018-2027 Capital Submission and a subsequent staff report on the full capital impact of high water will come forward in the fall of 2018 for inclusion in the 2019-2028 Capital Plan. The Deputy City Manager & Chief Financial Officer has reviewed this report and agree with the financial impact information. DECISION HISTORY At its meeting May 24, 25, 26, 2017, City Council requested the General Manager, Parks, Forestry and Recreation, in conjunction with the Office of Emergency Damages Sustained from Rising Lake Water Levels and Restoration Plans for Waterfront Parks Page 3 of 11 Management, the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, to report directly to City Council at its July meeting on damages sustained by waterfront parks from increased water levels, as well as the plan and timeline for immediate repair, restoration and long- term preventative measures to prevent further damage. Member Motion MM29.48 http://app.toronto.ca/tmmis/viewAgendaItemHistory.do?item=2017.MM29.48 COMMENTS Water Levels Lake Ontario levels began rising to above average level in April as snowmelt and an exceptionally rainy spring have increased water supply to the basin. In late May and early June, Lake Ontario remained above the highest water levels recorded at any time since 1918. These high lake levels and wave uprush are continuing to cause erosion and flooding, threatening public infrastructure and private property along the Lake Ontario shoreline and Toronto Island Park. The International Joint Commission (a bi- national organization established by the governments of the United States and Canada in 1909) regulates the outflow from Lake Ontario to the St. Lawrence River and follows a prescribed plan (Plan 2014) balancing water levels upstream and downstream to minimize flood and erosion impacts to the extent possible. On June 14, the Lake Ontario outflows into the St. Lawrence River were increased to the highest outflow that has ever been released on a sustained basis, in an effort to provide additional relief to Lake Ontario shorelines. This action resulted in a reduction of approximately 1 cm per day in Lake Ontario. As of early June, Lake Ontario's level is on a gradual decline. As of June 19, the Lake Ontario water levels in Toronto were at 75.82 m (above sea Level), down from a peak of 75.93m on May 27th. While water levels are receding, it is expected that they will not return to pre-flood levels (75.5 m) until well into the summer. It will take until the end of the year for the Lake to return to an average water level of 74.5 m. The graph below (prepared by the IJC, 2017) shows the lake levels in 2017 as compared to average and recent levels. Damages Sustained from Rising Lake Water Levels and Restoration Plans for Waterfront Parks Page 4 of 11 Figure 2- Average Monthly Lake Ontario Levels 2015 - June 2017 Once the water recedes, we can expect to see continued impacts that will last throughout the whole summer, including the reduction of some of Toronto's beaches by up to 90%. Staff continue to monitor the levels closely and are beginning to plan for the re-opening of certain sections of Toronto Island Park. However, it is likely that some portions of the park will remain closed to the public for the entirety of the summer of 2017. Timing to re-open the park is also contingent on how much damage has resulted from the high water levels, which cannot be assessed until the water substantially recedes. Flood Timeline and Operational Response With lake levels beginning to rise at a very accelerated rate during the first few weeks of April, the first impacts were to the Eastern Beaches. Some of the first work undertaken, with TRCA, was to ensure the structural integrity of the Leuty lifeguard station at Woodbine Beach as well as to preserve the boardwalk and beach. However, efforts quickly shifted to emergency operations at Toronto Island Park by May 4th when water levels reached 75.65 m and residents and assets on the Island began to be affected. Efforts to provide sandbags and labour were directed to priority areas, focusing on Wards Island. In an effort to proactively manage risks due to flooding at Toronto Island Park and along the shoreline, TRCA prepared inundation mapping. This mapping was prepared for various water level scenarios so sandbagging and pumping efforts could focus on protecting vulnerable areas in a timely manner. Damages Sustained from Rising Lake Water Levels and Restoration Plans for Waterfront Parks Page 5 of 11 The Toronto and Region Conservation Authority began referencing shoreline impacts in their Flood Forecasting and Warning messages from April 27th onwards, and posted a statement regarding Lake Ontario impacts on May 2nd.