INGLES COMPLETO_Maquetación 1 24/07/2013 12:32 Página 1 Carlos García-Legaz Martínez Francisco Valero Rodríguez Editors ADVERSE WEATHER IN SPAIN Under the sponsorship of 1 INGLES COMPLETO_Maquetación 1 24/07/2013 12:32 Página 2 ADVERSE WEATHER IN SPAIN Editors Carlos García-Legaz Martínez Francisco Valero Rodríguez ISBN: 978-84-96709-43-0 Printed by Service Point Published by: A. MADRID VICENTE, EDICIONES Calle Almansa, 94, 28040-Madrid (España) Phone: + 34 915336926 Fax: + 34 915530286 e mail: [email protected] Internet: www.amvediciones.com Photograph of the book cover: José A. Quirantes All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the editors. 2 INGLES COMPLETO_Maquetación 1 24/07/2013 12:32 Página 3 Whatsoever the LORD pleased, that did he in heaven, and in earth , in the seas, and all deep places. He causeth the vapors to ascend from the ends of the earth, he maketh lightnings f or the rain, he bringeth the wind out of his treasuries.” (Psalms, 135, 6-7) In memory of Professors Francisco Morán and Joaquín Catalá, Meteorologists and Catedráticos of Atmosphere Physics in Complutense University of Madrid, our masters. Francisco Valero Carlos García-Legaz 3 INGLES COMPLETO_Maquetación 1 24/07/2013 12:32 Página 4 4 INGLES COMPLETO_Maquetación 1 24/07/2013 12:32 Página 5 ADVERSE WEATHER IN SPAIN CONTENTS PRESENTATION ....................................................................................... 7 President, AEMET FOREWORD ............................................................................................ 8 Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros PREFACE.................................................................................................. 9 Chairperson of WRCP-E.C. EXPLANATION OF THE WORK ................................................................... 10 Editors CHAPTERS I. ADVERSE PHENOMENA A) PURELY ATMOSPHERICS 1. THE MEDITERRANEAN CYCLONES AND THEIR IMPACT IN SPAIN ......... 17 A. Jansà 2. MEDICANES: QUASI-TROPICAL MESOSCALE CYCLONES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN ............................................................................. 34 C. Ramis, Mª. Tous, V. Homar, R. Romero, S. Alonso 3. ATLANTIC EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS ............................................... 51 F. Martín León 4. TORNADOES IN SPAIN: CHARACTERISTICS AND IMPACT ..................... 66 M. Gayà 5. DEVELOPMENT OF A TECHNIQUE FOR THE DELIMITATION OF AREAS UNDER HIGH MAXIMUM WIND GUST IN EXTREME WIND SITUATIONS ..................................................................................... 78 J. A. López Díaz, M. Rodrigo 6. AN ANALOG MODEL FOR ESTIMATING STRONG WINDS ...................... 93 F. Valero, C. García-Legaz, Á. Pascual, Mª. L. Martín 7. METEOROLOGICAL RISK FACTORS AND TORRENTIAL PRECIPITATION IN THE SPANISH MEDITERRANEAN COAST ............... 108 Mª J. Estrela, F. Pastor, I. Gómez Doménech. 8. OBSERVATION, ANALYSIS, AND FORECASTING OF HAIL STORMS ......... 121 J. L. Sánchez, A. Merino, L. López, E. García-Ortega, E. Gascón, S. Fernández, J. L. Marcos 9. EXTREME RAINFALL RATES AND PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION ............................................................................... 135 J. Lorente, Mª. C. Casas, R. Rodríguez Sola, Á. Redaño 5 INGLES COMPLETO_Maquetación 1 24/07/2013 12:32 Página 6 10. DAILY CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION IN PENINSULAR SPAIN. A MAP OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RISK ................................ 149 J. Martín-Vide 11. HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND ATMOSPHERIC TELECONEXION PATTERNS OVER THE SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA ...................... 162 J.M. Hidalgo, S. R. Gámiz-Fortis, Mª. J. Esteban Parra, Y. Castro-Díez 12. ELECTRICAL DISCHARGES IN THE ATMOSPHERE ................................ 174 F. Pérez Puebla 13. FOG AND ITS SOCIETAL IMPACTS ...................................................... 189 J. Cuxart B) MIXED 14. A HOLISTIC APPROACH TO KNOWLEDGE OF FLOODS ......................... 207 Mª. C. Llasat 15. DROUGTH MONITORING FROM SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF BIOPHYSICALVARIABLES ................................................................... 220 F. J. García-Haro, Mª. Amparo Gilabert, J. Meliá 16. SNOW AVALANCHES IN SPAIN: THE ROLE OF SPANISH STATE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY .............................................................. 235 G. Sanz, J. Rodríguez Marcos, S. Buisán 17. FOREST FIRES IN SPAIN .................................................................. 251 A. Mestre II. RELATED CLIMATOLOGIES 18. TRENDS OF PRECIPITATION IN SPAIN (1945-2005) ............................. 267 J. C. González-Hidalgo, N. Cortesi, E. Nadal, M. Brunetti, Pter Stepanek, M. de Luis 19. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION DROUGHTS IN SPAIN IN THE LAST CENTURY ..................................... 283 S. M. Vicente-Serrano 20. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ..................................................................... 297 J. A. Guijarro 21. HEAT AND COLD WAVES IN SPAIN...................................................... 307 J. M. Cuadrat, R. Serrano, E. Tejedor III. BIOMETEOROLOGICAL APPROACH 22. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND HUMAN HEALTH ....................... 325 P. Fernández de Arróyabe IV. INSURANCE COVERAGE APPROACH 23. THE CONSORCIO DE COMPENSACIÓN DE SEGUROS AND COVER FOR ADVERSE WEATHER RISKS ........................................................ 343 C. García Canales, A. Nájera 6 INGLES COMPLETO_Maquetación 1 24/07/2013 12:32 Página 7 PRESENTATION Climatic projections carried out for decades provide estimations of a potential climate change towards a greater probability of occurrence of extreme weather events such as waves of heat, drought, tropical cyclones and intense precipitation with consequent floods, severe thunderstorms with associated tornadoes or destructive wind gusts. These adverse weather events have serious socio-economic consequences because they constitute a source of considerable human and economic losses. Natural disasters seem to be more and more frequent as it can be deduced from the economic damage amounts. This increase in the frequency of severe phenomena is the result of set of factors acting jointly, the geographic concentration of goods and people living in the risk zones, deficiencies in environmental management and, of course, the consequences of climate change. The natural disaster more common in Spain is flooding, which is determined by a extreme weather situation coupled with the geographical relief and human’s bad actions in relation with the use of the territory. If the claims paid by the Spanish Insurance Compensation Consortium in the period 1987-2006 are used as a reference, the 93.5% of the compensation paid due to natural disasters were owed to flooding. Taking into account the data updated until 2001 that included extraordinary cyclonic storms, the 68% were due to floods, another 17% would be due to storms, leaving only 15% due to several natural factors such as earthquakes and falling meteorites. Therefore, it is essential to advance in scientific knowledge and technological development on the extreme weather phenomena in order to achieve a more accurate prediction. I have the pleasure to introduce this book, which includes the most up-to-date information on extreme weather events in Spain. The experience and prestige of authors, experts from universities, research centers, Spanish Insurance Compensation Consortium and the Spanish Meteorological Agency, guarantee the scientific quality of the book which I have the great honour of presenting and I hope that readers will find out interesting contributions on the adverse meteorological phenomena that occur in our country. Daniel Cano Villaverde President, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 7 INGLES COMPLETO_Maquetación 1 24/07/2013 12:32 Página 8 FOREWORD Within the scope of the extraordinary risk insurance coverage, the Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros (CCS) has the mission of indemnifying damage to persons and assets arising as a result of the occurrence of certain natural phenomena or violent acts whenever these are covered by an insurance policy. Among the natural perils covered by the CCS, those which have historically caused most damage qualifying for indemnity are, as one might expect, those associated with the weather, namely flooding from torrential rain and atypical cyclonic storms, which basically includes strong winds and tornadoes. Thus in the 1987-2012 period the damages paid out by the CCS as a result of flooding totalled 4.3 billion euros (69% of total indemnification), while pay-outs arising from atypical cyclonic storms came to 989 million euros (16% of the overall amount). This original and essential mission of providing indemnification was over time complemented with a role related to prevention, as is laid down in the CCS Legal Statutes. The policy of the CCS as regards this particular function has always focussed on one vital and basic facet of the natural catastrophe risk management: awareness of them. This is why in this area the CCS promotes research and disseminates the findings. To this end, the CCS sponsors and supports, in collaboration with other institutions, the realisation of studies and the organisation of talks, courses, conferences and seminars, as well as the publication of material to be circulated free among those concerned. This kind of involvement by the CCS in the preventive aspect is faithfully reflected in the entity’s strategy