A 1961–2010 record of fertilizer use, pesticide application and cereal yields: a review Yongbo Liu, Xubin Pan, Junsheng Li To cite this version: Yongbo Liu, Xubin Pan, Junsheng Li. A 1961–2010 record of fertilizer use, pesticide application and cereal yields: a review. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, Springer Verlag/EDP Sciences/INRA, 2015, 35 (1), pp.83-93. 10.1007/s13593-014-0259-9. hal-01284272 HAL Id: hal-01284272 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01284272 Submitted on 7 Mar 2016 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Agron. Sustain. Dev. (2015) 35:83–93 DOI 10.1007/s13593-014-0259-9 REVIEW ARTICLE A1961–2010 record of fertilizer use, pesticide application and cereal yields: a review Yongbo Liu & Xubin Pan & Junsheng Li Accepted: 3 October 2014 /Published online: 30 October 2014 # INRA and Springer-Verlag France 2014 Abstract Global crop production has doubled since the 3. History trend of global pesticide consumption .............. 9 Green Revolution on the average, but crop yield has stagnated 3.1 Insecticide consumption ......................................... 9 or even declined in some regions. In the same time, food 3.2 Herbicide consumption ........................................ 10 demand has highly increased due to population growth and 3.3 Fungicide and bactericide consumption ............... 11 higher living standards. The use of pesticides and mineral 4. History trend of global cereal yields and produc- fertilizers has improved crop yields but also contaminated tion ................................................................................ 13 food and the environment, thus leading to a global food crisis. 4.1 Yield of total cereals ............................................ 13 Here, we reviewed the historical trends of global pesticide and 4.2 Production of total cereals .................................... 14 fertilizer application, cereal yields, and production. Our main 5. Integrated assessment of chemical additions .................. 16 findings are as follows: (1) fertilizer and pesticide consump- 6. Conclusions .................................................................. 19 tion increased for 35–40 % of the countries; (2) cereal pro- duction in 38 % of countries and yields in 47 % of countries either stagnated or decreased from 1961 to 2010; (3) countries showing stagnated or decreased yields are countries with low 1 Introduction gross domestic product per capita, mainly situated in Africa, South America, and West Asia. Our findings thus evidence a Increased global crop production has decreased the number of global imbalance in food production and the usage of fertil- hungry people worldwide since the Green Revolution izers and pesticides. (Godfray et al. 2010). However, in 2010, there were still 925 million undernourished people worldwide, with 98 % of these Keywords Consumption imbalance . Fertilizers . Pesticides . individuals living in developing countries (FAO 2010). Crop Cereal production . Environmental protection yields have stagnated or even declined in some regions (Peltonen-Sainio et al. 2009; Lin and Huybers 2012), and Contents cereal yields in around a quarter of cereal growing area did not improve from 1961 to 2008 (Ray et al. 2012). This 1. Introduction ..................................................................... 4 indicates a potential global food crisis in the coming decades, 2. History trend of global fertilizer consumption................ 6 which will likely be aggravated by a decrease in the area in agricultural production (Foley et al. 2011;Grafetal.2014), : the continual expansion of biofuel production (Gelfand et al. Y. Li u (*) J. Li (*) 2013), generally elevated standards of living, and huge food State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk wastage (Del Grosso and Cavigelli 2012). The crisis may be Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, 8 Dayangfang, 100012 Beijing, China serious (Fig. 1), not only in relatively poor countries but also e-mail: [email protected] in countries that depend on food imports; if food-exporting e-mail: [email protected] countries stop exporting or increase food prices, then coun- tries that depend on food imports will require increased do- X. Pan Institute of Plant Quarantine, Chinese Academy of Inspection mestic food production, likely through increased fertilizers and Quarantine, 100029 Beijing, China and pesticides usage. 84 Y. L iu et a l. countries are nitrogen deficient, while nitrogen surpluses are common in most Asian countries (Ju et al. 2009; Vitousek et al. 2009; Liu et al. 2010). Surplus nutrients are lost to natural ecosystems through leaching, soil erosion, and gas production, which degrade water and air quality (Ju et al. 2009). In this study, we, thus, analyzed both the historical trends and current status of global pesticide and fertil- izer application, cereal yields and production, and per capita cereal production, in order to make suggestions as to which countries need to increase fertilizer and pesticide application to improve crop production and which need to decrease chemical applications for envi- ronmental protection. This can assist countries in applying Fig. 1 Rice harvesting in a village, Hunan Province, China policy actions to reach a balance between food supply and environmental protection, in the face of global imbalances in resource consumption. Application of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in agri- cultural systems has increased in the past decades as a means 2 History trend of global fertilizer consumption for improving crop yields (Fig. 2), and application has been predicted to continue to increase substantially in the next few From the IFADATA website (IFA 2012), consumption data decades (Matson et al. 1997;Tilmanetal.2002; Mueller et al. were obtained for total global N+P2O5+K2Oasfertilizerfrom 2012; Martínez-Blanco et al. 2013). However, the use of these 1961 to 2010. A total of 88 countries with relatively complete chemicals is controversial because of their environmental data were used for trend analysis of fertilizer consumption. impacts (Garratt et al. 2011;Gilletal.2012; Henry et al. The 88 countries under study consumed 110 million tonnes of 2012; Whitehorn et al. 2012;Poppetal.2013; Pelosi et al. fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphate, and potash) per year on aver- 2014). Pesticides significantly reduced the biodiversity of age from 1961 to 2010 (IFA 2012). China consumed the most stream invertebrates in Europe and Australia and resulted in fertilizer using, 21.6 million tonnes each year, followed by the a loss of 42 % species pools (Beketov et al. 2013). USA (Table 1). Eighteen countries used more than 1 million Agricultural non-point source pollution has been common in tonne of fertilizer each country per year on average. Fertilizer developing countries and is induced by excessive inputs of application rates, as fertilizer consumption per hectare of nutrients (Sun et al. 2012). The debate continues over the harvested area, were not even across the global. There 15 effects of these additions on the sustainability of the food countries were lacking in fertilizer, using less than supply and public and ecosystem health (Liu et al. 2012; 50 kg ha−1 in 2010, approximately 73 % of these countries Pingali 2012). Moreover, imbalance in chemical additions in (11 countries) situated in Africa (Fig. 3). In contrast, agricultural production is common because national policies Mauritius, New Zealand, Malaysia, Ireland, Kuwait, and/or regional resources are different (Vitousek et al. 2009; Netherlands, Israel, and Chile consumed more than 800 kg MacDonald et al. 2011). Phosphorus scarcity is widespread in fertilizers per hectare of harvested area in 2010 (Fig. 3). Those South America while most of Eastern Asia has a phosphorus countries and regions, both developed and developing, that surplus (MacDonald et al. 2011). Similarly, 80 % of African typically use an excess of chemical fertilizers should reduce Fig. 2 Pesticide application in a research base on plant protection, Nanjing, China Trends of chemical additions and cereal yields during 1961–2010 85 ) 3 inputs and take measures to increase the efficiency of chem- ical additions, for the benefit of the agricultural economy, the environment, and human health (Gill et al. 2012; Henry et al. 2012; Kuivila et al. 2012; Whitehorn et al. 2012). Scarcity of nutrient supplies is also a key factor that limited the increase in cereal yields (Vitousek et al. 2009;Liuetal.2010; MacDonald et al. 2011). These developing countries first need 2010 – to feed their increasing human populations. Modern technol- ogies and best practices could help developing nations to ) Countries Trend Mean (10 3 increase crop production substantially. For example, in e Africa, the lack of roads makes it way too expensive and difficult for farmers to get access to synthetic fertilizers, which hampers agricultural productivity. Based on the observed trends in fertilizer consumption, the countries and regions were categorized into