Ulf Pillkahn Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to the many individuals who con- tributed to the successful completion of this book. I particularly wish to thank the following people for their invaluable support: Sofia Benevides Bruno Díaz Anne Gelas Marion Günther Jacques Helot Stefanie Maurer Nathalie Morisset-Bouchard Eleonora Peis Renate Pillkahn Martina Richter Natascha Römer Steffi Schulz Gerhard Seitfudem Heinrich Stuckenschneider Claus Weyrich Willfried Wienholt And the friendly support staff at the libraries of the Siemens Corporation Ulf Pillkahn is a Strategy Consultant at the Siemens Corporation in Munich, Germany. Born in 1967 in Gera, Germany, Pillkahn earned a degree in Electronics and Information Technology at Chemnitz Technical University before going on to work in the development of telephone exchange systems and at the Siemens Corporation in Norway. A holder of numerous patents and patent registrations, Pillkahn’s most recent work has centered on innova- tion management, the strategic, technical and economic aspects of tech- nologies in the areas of information management and communication, strategy development, and future studies. Contact: [email protected] Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development Shaping the Future of Your Enterprise by Ulf Pillkahn Publicis Corporate Publishing Bibliographic information published by Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available in the Internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de. This book was carefully produced. Nevertheless, author and publisher do not warrant the information contained therein to be free of errors. Neither the author nor the publisher can assume any liability or legal responsibility for omissions or errors. Terms reproduced in this book may be registered trademarks, the use of which by third parties for their own purposes may violate the rights of the owners of those trademarks. www.publicis-erlangen.de/books Contact: Dr. Gerhard Seitfudem, [email protected] ISBN 978-3-89578-304-3 Editor: Siemens Aktiengesellschaft, Berlin and Munich Publisher: Publicis Corporate Publishing, Erlangen © 2008 by Publicis KommunikationsAgentur GmbH, GWA, Erlangen This publication and all parts thereof are protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Any use of it outside the strict provisions of the copyright law without the consent of the publisher is forbidden and will incur penalties. This applies particularly to reproduction, translation, microfilming or other processing, and to storage or processing in electronic systems. It also applies to the use of extracts from the text. Printed in Germany The Future is Partly Made of Clay Globalization, fierce competition, and the growing complexity of products, technolo- gies and processes of change have become all-pervasive. They force us to think ahead to the medium and long term while we simultaneously concentrate on our day-to-day business activities. This task demands an ever greater degree of flexibility and adapt- ability on the part of managers at enterprises throughout the world. Niels Bohr, the recipient of the Nobel Prize for Physics in the year 1922, once quipped, “Prediction is hard, especially if it’s about the future.” Indeed, we are not in a position to make precise predictions about future events, let alone plan these events. This, however, does not free us from the task of considering the future. Considering the future is largely a matter of understanding the present and the past. Strangely enough, we live in a time of too much information and too little informa- tion. This predicament arises from the fact that growing complexity virtually bars us from fully comprehending our environment and all of the emerging changes. In light of these limitations, individuals and teams of individuals face a more demanding task when it comes to converting ideas into true innovations and viable market solutions. This task requires effective decision-making support. The development of many innovations today is not only determined by what is tech- nologically feasible, but by what creates the greatest benefits for the consumer, what is economically feasible, and what appears to be acceptable in societal terms. Despite this, science and technology remain the strongest drivers of progress and wealth in the modern world. Scientific discoveries and new technological developments, i.e. innovations, have an impact on our lives and change our behavior. Innovations arise from knowledge. Ikujiro Nonaka confirms this suggestion, “Successful companies are those that consistently create new knowledge, disseminate it widely throughout the organization, and quickly embody it in new technologies and products.” Knowl- edge has become the most important raw material of our time: knowledge about tech- nologies, knowledge about markets and consumers, knowledge about the complex relationships among the variables in our environment, and knowledge about rele- vant future trends. It has become indispensable for enterprises today to have the means of detecting trends – which may signal risks or opportunities – at an early stage and to use this knowledge for strategic purposes. This book makes a valuable contribution in this regard by offering a systematic account of how one can create “pictures of the future.” Such pictures offer various coherent views of the future – the future of individual markets, technologies, and other segments of society. While there is naturally no guarantee that what is depicted in the pictures (scenarios) will actually occur in the future, they nonetheless offer a basis for playing an intelligent and more active role The Future is Partly Made of Clay 5 in developments – not least when it comes to communicating with one’s internal and external partners. While it is obviously not possible (or even desirable) to precisely plan the future, it is equally obvious that the future does not simply happen. Partly made of clay, the future is shapeable – and that is what matters. Enterprises have considerable respon- sibility in the shaping of the future. This book will be a companion to all decision makers who have a share of this responsibility and will help them to systematically detect opportunities in the future. Visions, perspectives, fantasies, and curiosity are matter of inspiration. Given that curiosity about the future is in all of us, this book should be of interest not only to researchers, strategic planners and innovators. I wish all the readers of this book an enjoyable read – and much success in giving shape to their own ideas. Prof. Dr. Claus Weyrich Former member of the Management Board at the Siemens Corporation and Director of Corporate Technology 6 The Future is Partly Made of Clay Contents Introduction . 13 CHAPTER 1 Venturing a Look into the Future Moving from the Past into the Future via the Present 1.1 Reflections on the Future . 23 1.2 Changes in Our Environment . 41 1.3 Enterprise Development . 45 1.4 Present and Future Challenges . 50 1.5 Enterprise Intelligence Test . 72 CHAPTER 2 Detection Detecting and Recording Changes in the Enterprise Environment 2.1 A Plea for Foresight and Prior Action . 81 2.2 The Enterprise Environment . 82 2.3 Information as a Basis for Decision Making . 86 2.4 How We Can Learn to Understand Our Environment . 95 2.5 The Future of Television (I) . 104 CHAPTER 3 Reflection Sorting and Structuring Information 3.1 Changes in the Environment . 115 3.2 Stability – Paradigms and Assumptions . 120 3.3 Changes – Trends . 122 3.4 Uncertainty . 142 3.5 Contradictions . 142 3.6 Indeterminate Elements – Chaos and Wildcards . 143 3.7 From Hypothesis to Future Element . 144 3.8 The Future of Television (II) . 147 Contents 7 CHAPTER 4 Understanding Anticipating the Future 4.1 Memories of the Future . 155 4.2 The Possibilities and Limits of Foresight . 158 4.3 Origins and Development of Foresight . 162 4.4 Pictures of the Future . 174 4.5 Demarcation and Focus . 177 4.6 Selecting Future Elements . 179 4.7 The Actual “Look” into the Future . 179 4.7.1 Principles and Methods of Analyzing the Future . 181 4.7.2 Methods of Analyzing the Present . 194 4.7.3 Methods of Opinion Formation and Decision Making . 194 4.7.4 Selection of Foresight Methods (“Looking into the Future”) . 198 4.7.5 Developing Hypotheses . 198 4.8 Development of Scenario Frameworks and Scenarios . 200 4.9 Creating Pictures of the Future . 206 4.10 Evaluation of Scenarios . 208 4.11 Pictures of the Future . 209 4.12 The Future of Television (III) . 211 4.13 Lessons Learned . 227 CHAPTER 5 Planning Seizing Opportunities and Avoiding Hazards 5.1 Planning for the Future: An Insurance Policy . 233 5.2 Strategy Review . 234 5.3 Developing Strategies in Turbulent Environments . 240 5.4 Enterprise Analysis . 243 5.5 Strategy Synthesis . 253 5.5.1 Basic Understanding of Strategy and Strategic Goals . 254 5.5.2 Strategic Options and Strategic Fit . 257 5.5.3 Developing Enterprise Scenarios . 259 5.5.4 Developing Strategic Options . 260 5.5.5 Strategic Fit . 262 5.5.6 Robust Strategies . 263 5.6 Strategic Decisions . 265 5.7 Examining the Future in the Context of Strategy Development . 266 5.8 The Future of Television (IV) . 272 8 Contents CHAPTER 6 Implementation Managing Change 6.1 The Dimensions of Change . 287 6.2 The Logic of Change . 289 6.3 The Reality of Change in Enterprises . 290 6.4 Elements of Change . ..