Midsummer Retail Report 2019 IS THIS THE END OF EXECUTIVE RETAIL SHOPPING WITH REGIONAL THE MARKET MONEY THE GOLDEN AGE OF KNOWLEDGE FOOD CONTACTS SUMMARY REIMAGINED A CONSCIENCE UPDATES ONLINE RETAILING? < > EXECUTIVE SUMMARY After an unprecedented year of turmoil, the UK retail sector and the property market that it supports is having to reinvent itself. IS THIS THE END OF EXECUTIVE RETAIL SHOPPING WITH REGIONAL THE MARKET MONEY THE GOLDEN AGE OF KNOWLEDGE FOOD CONTACTS SUMMARY REIMAGINED A CONSCIENCE UPDATES ONLINE RETAILING? < > EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OUR LATEST MIDSUMMER KEY FINDINGS RETAIL REPORT LOOKS AT ● The ‘Golden Age’ of online retailing is coming to an end. ● Major retail development can no longer play the kind Online retailers will be increasingly compelled to engage of central role in regeneration that it has for the past THE CHANGES IN STRATEGIC with physical shopping environments to stay competitive. 50 years. This poses the question as to what will become the economic focal point of urban environments. DIRECTION THAT THE SECTOR ● At £1,868 per person, the UK retail ecommerce expenditure per capita is higher than in any other G20 market, with ● The Government needs to do more to support the Retail WILL HAVE TO FACE IN ORDER both online advertising expenditure and internet retail Industry which employs 10% of the UK workforce and TO REMAIN RELEVANT expenditure almost trebling since 2010. generates £400bn of sales annually. ● Environmental concerns over the impact of online shopping ● The war on plastic, the rise of veganism and growing AND VIABLE. delivery may eventually lead to the introduction of a opposition to the waste incurred by ‘fast fashion’ are ‘suburban congestion charge’. just some of the societal trends that will impact both how we live and how we shop. ● Shoppers are realising that there is no such thing as ‘free delivery’ – if roads are being damaged and air is polluted someone has to pay. IS THIS THE END OF EXECUTIVE RETAIL SHOPPING WITH REGIONAL THE MARKET MONEY THE GOLDEN AGE OF KNOWLEDGE FOOD CONTACTS SUMMARY REIMAGINED A CONSCIENCE UPDATES ONLINE RETAILING? < > EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AROUND A THIRD OF VACANT THE MARKET PRIME SPACE HAS BEEN RENTS LEASING “ ● Across the 400+ locations we monitor throughout the UK, ● Retailers that have a compelling offer and are well aligned EMPTY FOR MORE THAN the reductions range from just over 5% in Central London to to their customer base are expanding their store networks. nearly 13% in Wales, with every region showing notable falls. TWO YEARS. ● Lease flexibility, more turnover-related leases and lower ● Average rents outside of Central London are now 30% fit-out costs are helping many of these brands to build lower than 2008 and, taking into account inflation, in real their presence across the UK. terms rents have halved during the last decade. ● Uniqlo, Skechers, SpaceNK, The Works, Primark, Oliver VACANCY Bonas, Deichmann, Mountain Warehouse, JD, Rituals, Anthropologie and Aldi are just some of the brands that ● For prime UK shops, vacancy stands at around 11% but this is the tip of the iceberg when temporary lets, CVA are currently growing and doing new deals across the UK. ” situations etc are taken into account. ● Around a third of vacant prime space has been empty for more than two years. ● The overhang of redundant retail space urgently needs to be reduced by repurposing for other – non-retail – uses. ● Hotel operators have been the fastest to capitalise on this repurposing trend. IS THIS THE END OF EXECUTIVE RETAIL SHOPPING WITH REGIONAL THE MARKET MONEY THE GOLDEN AGE OF KNOWLEDGE FOOD CONTACTS SUMMARY REIMAGINED A CONSCIENCE UPDATES ONLINE RETAILING? < > EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AND RETAIL CAPITAL MARKETS TURNING DATA INTO RENT GROWING GROUP OF INVESTORS ● The repricing process across retail capital markets will ● Building on years of work with major mobile providers, “ – in some circumstances – be too extreme and this will Colliers are now assessing both historical and real time WHO ARE CURRENTLY SITTING present opportunities to buy into future returns. behaviour insights across hundreds of UK data sources. QUIETLY ON THE SIDE-LINES ● There is a substantial and growing group of investors ● This analysis is part of an approach that can help landlords who are currently sitting quietly on the side-lines eyeing capture – in the form of rent – the value that shops play EYEING HEALTHY RETAIL healthy retail assets that are starting to look cheap. in driving online sales. ASSETS THAT ARE STARTING ● The private equity buying spree that took place in the ● As a measure of retail vitality, footfall should be replaced TO LOOK CHEAP. shopping centre market five years ago is rapidly unwinding. by the calculation of ‘total shopping hours’. ● However, lack of debt funding is hampering transactional ● Recent studies have shown that in some cases up to activity – particularly in the shopping centre sector. half of a brand’s online sales take place within five miles of stores. ● The disconnect between valuation and market pricing ” has never been more extreme. IS THIS THE END OF EXECUTIVE RETAIL SHOPPING WITH REGIONAL THE MARKET MONEY THE GOLDEN AGE OF KNOWLEDGE FOOD CONTACTS SUMMARY REIMAGINED A CONSCIENCE UPDATES ONLINE RETAILING? < > THE MARKET The statistics on retail property rents and vacancy make grim reading. Dan Simms reviews the numbers and considers the challenges. IS THIS THE END OF EXECUTIVE RETAIL SHOPPING WITH REGIONAL THE MARKET MONEY THE GOLDEN AGE OF KNOWLEDGE FOOD CONTACTS SUMMARY REIMAGINED A CONSCIENCE UPDATES ONLINE RETAILING? < > THE MARKET NEW THINKING NEEDED This year’s Midsummer Retail Report has been heavily influenced by what is happening in society as a whole as well as the continued evolution of our retail property market. This report’s theme is ‘A Change in Direction’ and we’re going RENTS to look at some of the robust and imaginative responses that Since we last reported, prime retail rents for new deals have DAN SIMMS need to be made in the face of what is an unprecedentedly fallen, on average, by 7%. challenging market. Co-head of UK Retail Agency Across the 400+ locations we monitor throughout the UK, the And it is today’s market that we’re going to look at first before reductions range from just over 5% in Central London to nearly we turn our attention to the future. 13% in Wales, with every region showing notable falls. To be clear, we’re not here to put any gloss on the current Those figures don’t seem that profound until you consider that condition of the retail landscape. in a ‘normally’ functioning market we’d usually see movements of around 1 or 2% each year for most of the UK. Our latest findings on rents and vacancy make grim reading – especially when you consider that we focus primarily on prime Average rents outside of Central London are now 30% lower than rents and the vacancy among prime properties. 2008 and taking into account inflation, in real terms rents have halved over the last decade. The most recent figures for the last 12 months show the largest reductions since the 2008-09 period, when UK-wide rents fell 11%. IS THIS THE END OF EXECUTIVE RETAIL SHOPPING WITH REGIONAL THE MARKET MONEY THE GOLDEN AGE OF KNOWLEDGE FOOD CONTACTS SUMMARY REIMAGINED A CONSCIENCE UPDATES ONLINE RETAILING? < > THE MARKET It wasn’t that long since Central London was registering double digit percentage annual growth, but even this most robust area has now reversed. RENTS – THE PAST DECADE GB Average ex Central London Looking ahead, with ongoing occupier failures, portfolio Prime Retail Rents rationalisation and no end to the CVA story we do not see any reason why this trend should not continue in the coming 12 months. (£) Supply tension creates rental stability and the prospect of growth, 115 but, of course, at present we have almost none. 110 105 VACANCY 100 On the face of it, the fact that 11% of the floorspace that we monitor across key UK locations is vacant, does not seem 95 30% excessive. 90 85 However, if you consider the number of shops where occupiers 80 remain in occupation rent-free to mitigate rates liabilities, temporary deals, CVA governed leases with multiple breaks 75 and leases being marketed etc then you start to realise that 70 this headline level of vacancy is just the tip of the iceberg. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Colliers As such, the headline drop in vacancy from 11.5% to 11.1% during the past year is actually masking a more profound situation. There has been a marked decoupling of the traditional relationship between vacancy and availability and there is now far more space available than that which is officially vacant. Across total vacancy there is also a predictable gulf between prime at 6.1% and secondary space at 15.1%. IS THIS THE END OF EXECUTIVE RETAIL SHOPPING WITH REGIONAL THE MARKET MONEY THE GOLDEN AGE OF KNOWLEDGE FOOD CONTACTS SUMMARY REIMAGINED A CONSCIENCE UPDATES ONLINE RETAILING? < > THE MARKET LOOKING BEYOND THE STATS THE REGENERATION CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT THE PAST 50 An inference that shouldn’t be drawn from these stats is that Throughout the past 50 years, retail development played YEARS, RETAIL DEVELOPMENT there isn’t activity in the leasing market. a pivotal role in the regeneration of cities across the UK. Uniqlo, Skechers, SpaceNK, The Works, Primark, Oliver Bonas, Major urban retail-led development had a profound impact on “ Deichmann, Mountain Warehouse, JD, Rituals, Anthropologie and the economic vitality on cities such as Liverpool, Manchester, PLAYED A PIVOTAL ROLE IN Aldi are just some of the brands that are currently growing and doing Bristol, Cardiff and Leeds.