DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO October 2020 to May 2021 Food Security Outlook Growing season A marked by normal rainfall and declining participation KEY MESSAGES • Growing season A started on time in the eastern part of the country. While it is experiencing normal rainfall, the season is impacted by low household participation because of the pandemic and insecurity throughout the region. This situation suggests that there will be poor performance during the growing season, with lower than normal harvests expected. • The spread of COVID-19 in 21 of the country’s 26 provinces continues to affect populations’ livelihoods. Restrictive measures have been reduced since the health emergency was declared over in August 2020. As a result, certain borders have reopened and activities have gradually resumed across the country. According to the National Institute of Statistics (INS), however, nearly 39 percent of heads of household remain unable to carry out their activities due to the effects of the pandemic throughout the country. • At this time of year, despite the relative lull observed in the provinces of Ituri, Tanganyika, and Maniema, there are still many displaced households that have abandoned their livelihoods. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the third quarter of 2020 counted 92,137 displaced individuals with a 42 percent rate of return. This situation reinforces the expectation of low participation in the current growing season. • Considering the lull noted in certain eastern zones, during the peak of the 2020 lean season the food security situation could transition to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the more stable northern and central zones, including the provinces of Haut- Uele, Bas-Uele, and Tshopo and a portion of the Kasaï region. Meanwhile, the Irumu territory in Ituri; Beni, Masisi, and Rutshuru in North Kivu; and Nyunzu, Kabalo, and Manono in Tanganyika will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The Djugu territory will remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). FEWS NET DRC FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not [email protected] necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International www.fews.net/drc Development or the United States Government. DRC Food Security Outlook October 2020 to May 2021 NATIONAL CONTEXT Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 DRC Food Security Outlook October 2020 to May 2021 Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 DRC Food Security Outlook October 2020 to May 2021 FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows Current situation key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. The COVID-19 pandemic and other epidemics: COVID-19 continues to spread day after day throughout the country. According to the technical secretariat of the Multisector Committee to Combat COVID-19 (CMR), 21 of the country’s 26 provinces have been affected to date. Although active cases are decreasing, health services estimate that there are still a number of unidentified cases in the community. The government has put a series of measures in place to slow the spread of the virus. It has declared a health emergency, made testing available in all Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) cities including Kinshasa, established restrictions, and closed borders with neighboring countries. With progress made in response to the pandemic, the borders have now been reopened. Other measures taken include testing centers in all DRC provinces, case tracking, contact tracing, and mandatory quarantine for positive and suspected cases. However, despite official border openings, requirements involving mandatory fee-based testing and quarantine after crossing the border present a significant obstacle for small, informal cross-border traders. Since September 2020, the pandemic response has improved in the DRC with a decrease in cases and an increase in recoveries, which are estimated at 90 percent of recorded cases. In addition to COVID-19, the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic, declared in Mbandaka and Bikoro in the Equateur province on May 31, 2020, continues to claim victims. According to the Health Cluster, a total of 128 cases (119 confirmed and 9 probable), including 53 deaths (equaling a 41.4 percent fatality rate), were recorded as of October 10. This epidemic is currently affecting 42 health areas, spread across 13 health districts. Furthermore, it is important to note that for nearly two years, the DRC has been experiencing the largest measles epidemic in the world, which has killed more than 6,600 people in 100 health districts (representing one fifth of the country). Since January 2020, approximately 50,000 measles cases have been officially registered and over 600 deaths recorded. Security situation and population movements: The security situation remains precarious in the DRC, particularly in the eastern provinces. Clashes between armed groups, in addition to inter-community conflicts, continue to cause significant population movements. Between July and September 2020, various OCHA alerts reported more than 386,283 newly displaced persons and 467,688 returnees. In addition to the eastern provinces (Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Tanganyika, and Maniema), other provinces such as Haut-Katanga, Tshopo, Kasaï, and Kasaï-Central have experienced population movements because of various conflicts. All of these displaced persons are forced to abandon their homes and other possessions to settle in a new environment. Moreover, political instability in neighboring countries continues to bring new refugees to the DRC from South Sudan, Burundi, and the Central African Republic. As of June 30, 2020, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates 528,367 refugees and asylum-seekers in the DRC, of whom just over half (54 percent) are from Uganda and Burundi. Additionally, the latest figures from the same date report 5.5 million displaced persons, nearly 65 percent of whom are concentrated in the three northeastern provinces of Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu. Economic situation: According to the Central Bank of the Congo (BCC) report from September 2020, the DRC’s trade balance at the end of the third quarter of 2020, i.e., at the end of September, shows a positive balance of 1.9 billion USD, resulting from exports valued at 8.34 billion USD and imports of 6.35 billion USD, according to BCC data. However, trade volume in 2020 is down compared to the same period in 2019, when the trade balance was 138.30 million USD, resulting from exports valued at 11.11 billion USD and imports of 10.97 billion USD. Foreign exchange reserves fell by 12.9 percent between August and September 2020. The central bank credits the decline in trade volume this year to falling export revenues, declining global demand, and shrinking economic activity. This situation was also reflected in both official and parallel exchange rates. In view of the above, a weakened macroeconomic condition is projected for the coming months, which will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of poor households. Agroclimatological situation: The 2020-2021 growing season started well across the country with a normal season expected for the most part. Weather forecasts show a negligible decrease in rainfall compared to normal from October to December 2020. Market operation and food prices: People have been restricted from crossing the border from neighboring countries since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in the DRC. Considering the importance of informal cross-border trade with neighboring countries, thousands of households relying on small-scale informal trade between the DRC and these countries Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4 DRC Food Security Outlook October 2020 to May 2021 have been impacted by the border restrictions. Products from these countries are scarce on the local markets as a result. This has created a price distortion in products from Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and South Africa. Local markets throughout the rest of the country are facing the peak of the lean season after a growing season with a lower performance. Availability will decrease in the face of rising demand, given that many households rely on market purchases for their food supply. Livelihoods: According to the Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA) conducted by the WFP in 2017, food-crop production is the most mentioned subsistence activity (48.8 percent) at the national level, followed by public and private sector employment (skilled and unskilled labor, 11.5 percent). Handicrafts and small businesses represent 5.4 percent and 4.5 percent respectively. All of these sectors have been impacted by the effects of the pandemic, given that the impact of COVID-19 is mostly reflected in the decline in demand for products and services provided by economic units. Poor and very poor households who have lost all or part of their source of income must implement adaptation strategies such as the diversification of income sources or, in more severe situations, strategies related to food consumption. Nutritional situation: The current nutritional situation remains concerning, with increasingly high rates of malnutrition compared to recent years in regions that have recently experienced disease, natural disasters, and insecurity. Recent Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transition (SMART) nutritional surveys (weight/height) conducted in seven health districts in 2020 all showed global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates above the alert threshold (10 percent), particularly in the health districts of Minembwe in South Kivu, Manono and Ankoro in Tanganyika, Basankusu in Equateur, and Bukama in Haut-Lomami, with some above the emergency threshold (15 percent) in the health districts of Kamina and Bikoro. Chronic malnutrition (height/age) exceeds the critical threshold of 40 percent in all the surveyed health districts. Current food security situation: This October is the peak of the lean season, meaning that food access is even more difficult for households that have depleted their dwindling stocks from the previous season earlier than usual.