Sustainable Aviation Fuels Road Map: Data assumptions and modelling CSIRO Paul Graham, Luke Reedman, Luis Rodriguez, John Raison, Andrew Braid, Victoria Haritos, Thomas Brinsmead, Jenny Hayward, Joely Taylor and Deb O’Connell Centre of Policy Studies Phillip Adams May 2011 Enquiries should be addressed to: Paul Graham Energy Modelling Stream Leader CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship PO Box 330 Newcastle NSW 2300 Ph: (02) 4960 6061 Fax: (02) 4960 6054 Email: [email protected] Copyright and Disclaimer © 2011 CSIRO To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO. Important Disclaimer CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. CONTENTS Contents ...................................................................................................................... i List of Figures ............................................................................................................ 3 Lis t of Tables .............................................................................................................. 4 Acronyms and Abbreviations .................................................................................... 6 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... 7 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 8 2. Biomass to jet fuel supply chain assumptions ............................................... 9 2.1 Scope ........................................................................................................................ 9 2.2 Units .......................................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Cost of bio-derived jet fuels .................................................................................... 10 2.4 Volume of transport fuels consumed in Australia and New Zealand ...................... 11 2.5 Volume of bio-derived jet fuels in Australia ............................................................ 12 2.6 Volume of bio-derived jet fuel in New Zealand ....................................................... 14 2.7 Summary of biofuel volumes .................................................................................. 16 2.8 Biofuels refining ...................................................................................................... 17 2.8.1 Units of measuring capital cost ........................................................................... 17 2.8.2 Biofuel refinery capital and operating costs ........................................................ 18 2.8.3 Alternative refining processes and potential for improvements over time ........... 22 2.9 Transport and distribution costs ............................................................................. 22 2.10 Cost summary ......................................................................................................... 23 2.11 Timing of first bio-derived jet fuel production .......................................................... 25 2.12 Life cycle emissions ................................................................................................ 26 2.13 Water and other resource constraints .................................................................... 27 2.14 Aviation demand ..................................................................................................... 28 2.15 Developments in aviation fuel consumption ........................................................... 29 3. Reference case ................................................................................................ 30 3.1 Modelling results ..................................................................................................... 31 4. Scenarios ......................................................................................................... 33 4.1 Modelling results ..................................................................................................... 34 5. Appendix A: Methods and assumptions used to estimate the sustainable production of feedstocks. ............................................................................... 39 5.1 Sustainability and other production constraints as applied to each feedstock. ..... 40 5.2 Analysis of each feedstock production system against the RSB Principles (RSB Standard Version 1.0). ............................................................................................ 43 5.3 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 45 6. Appendix B: Road transport sector assumptions ........................................ 46 6.1 Road vehicle type configuration ............................................................................. 46 6.2 Road fuel coverage ................................................................................................. 47 6.3 Road engine type configurations ............................................................................ 50 6.4 Road transport costs ............................................................................................... 51 6.4.1 Vehicle costs ....................................................................................................... 51 6.5 Treatment of technological change in the transport sector .................................... 52 i 6.6 Road fuel costs ....................................................................................................... 55 6.6.1 Synthetic fuels ..................................................................................................... 55 6.6.2 First generation road biofuels .............................................................................. 56 6.6.3 Second generation road biofuels ......................................................................... 58 6.7 Road fuel efficiency ................................................................................................. 59 6.7.1 Greenhouse gas emission factors ....................................................................... 61 6.7.2 Efficiency improvements over time ...................................................................... 62 7. Appendix C: Electricity sector assumptions ................................................. 66 7.1 Environmental parameters ...................................................................................... 66 7.1.1 Greenhouse gas emission factors ....................................................................... 66 7.1.2 Geological storage of CO2 ................................................................................... 67 7.2 Electricity generation fuel prices ............................................................................. 68 7.2.1 Coal ..................................................................................................................... 68 7.2.2 Natural gas .......................................................................................................... 68 7.2.3 Uranium............................................................................................................... 68 7.2.4 Biomass .............................................................................................................. 69 7.3 Electricity demand ................................................................................................... 69 7.4 Electricity generation technology cost and performance ........................................ 70 7.4.1 Capacity factors for distributed generation .......................................................... 74 7.5 Treatment of technological change in electricity sector .......................................... 75 7.5.1 Centralised plant ................................................................................................. 75 7.5.2 Distributed generation ......................................................................................... 78 7.6 Air (dry) cooling ....................................................................................................... 80 7.7 Intermittency ............................................................................................................ 81 8. Appendix D: Default policy settings .............................................................. 82 8.1 Transport ................................................................................................................. 82 8.1.1 Vehicle registration .............................................................................................