Work Plan St. Marks River Rise, Wakulla, and Sally Ward Springs Minimum Flows and Levels Development and the University of Tampa Submitted to: Northwest Florida Water Management District Under Task Order 2 24 June 2014 24 June 2014 Table of Contents CHAPTER PAGE NUMBER 1. WORK PLAN INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Define study area ............................................................................................................... 10 1.2 Define goals of MFLs .......................................................................................................... 14 1.3 Define MFLs approach ........................................................................................................ 15 2. IDENTIFICATION OF WATER RESOURCE VALUES ............................................................................ 18 2.1 Recreation in and on the water .......................................................................................... 21 2.2 Fish and wildlife habitats and the passage of fish .............................................................. 21 2.3 Estuarine resources ............................................................................................................. 22 2.4 Aesthetic and scenic attributes ........................................................................................... 23 2.5 Water quality ...................................................................................................................... 23 2.6 Navigation ........................................................................................................................... 23 2.7 Other WRV considerations .................................................................................................. 24 3. DEVELOP BENCHMARK FLOWS ...................................................................................................... 26 4. REFINE DATA NEEDS AND COLLECT DATA ....................................................................................... 30 4.1 Install, operate, and collect data from surface and groundwater monitoring stations ..... 30 4.2 Survey and compile transect data necessary to support HEC-RAS model ......................... 34 4.3 Collect and compile data for PHABSIM .............................................................................. 35 4.4 Collect and compile data for floodplain habitat and floodplain – aquatic habitat connectivity analyses .......................................................................................................... 36 4.5 Collect and compile data for snag instream habitat analyses ............................................ 38 4.6 Collect and compile salinity and temperature data for estuarine (EFDC) model .............. 38 4.7 Collect and compile data for manatee thermal refuge model ........................................... 39 5. PERFORM DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT: FLOWS AND LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH WRVS .............................................................................................................................................. 40 5.1 Develop and calibrate HEC-RAS model .............................................................................. 43 5.2 Develop PHABSIM model ................................................................................................... 44 5.3 Develop relationships among elevation and floodplain habitat and floodplain – aquatic connectivity elevations ....................................................................................................... 46 5.4 Evaluate snag and instream habitat .................................................................................. 48 5.5 Develop and calibrate the groundwater model ................................................................. 48 5.6 Develop hydrodynamic model to evaluate estuarine resources ....................................... 55 5.7 Assess need for thermal model for Wakulla Springs .......................................................... 57 5.8 Meet with District to discuss results .................................................................................. 58 6. ASSESS EFFECTS OF REDUCED FLOWS ON WRVS ........................................................................... 59 7. ASSESS THE NEED FOR A RECOVERY OR PREVENTION STRATEGY ................................................. 61 8. FACILITATE PEER REVIEW ............................................................................................................... 62 8.1 Identify, contact, and select peer review candidate .......................................................... 63 8.2 Initiate peer review ............................................................................................................ 64 ATKINS 1 WP for St. Marks River Rise, Wakulla, and Sally Ward Springs MFLs 24 June 2014 8.3 Implement peer review process ......................................................................................... 64 8.4 Final peer review and report preparation .......................................................................... 65 9. IMPLEMENT PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT PLAN ..................................................................................... 66 9.1 Prepare and implement PIP; coordinate with PIP specialist .............................................. 66 9.2 Support development of materials for PIP ......................................................................... 68 9.3 Attend two workshops in support of public involvement .................................................. 69 10. FINAL MFL REPORT PREPARATION ................................................................................................. 70 11. DELIVERABLES, SCHEDULES, AND COSTS ....................................................................................... 71 11.1 Deliverables ........................................................................................................................ 71 11.2 Schedule ............................................................................................................................. 72 11.3 Cost Estimates .................................................................................................................... 72 12. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................... 77 List of Tables TABLE 1. PROPOSED ENHANCED GROUNDWATER MONITORING STATIONS. ........................................... 33 TABLE 2. PROPOSED SURFACE WATER MONITORING STATIONS, LOCATION DESCRIPTIONS, AND MODEL/ANALYSIS COMPONENT. .................................................................................................. 34 TABLE 3. SUMMARY OF MODELS, ANTICIPATED APPLICATIONS AND CORRESPONDING WRVS ............... 42 TABLE 4. ANNUAL PLANNING LEVEL COST ESTIMATES FOR THE ST. MARKS RIVER RISE, WAKULLA AND SALLY WARD SPRINGS MFL DEVELOPMENT. ................................................................................. 74 List of Figures FIGURE 1. LOCATION OF ST. MARKS RIVER RISE, SALLY WARD SPRING AND WAKULLA SPRINGS. ........... 11 FIGURE 2. AERIAL PHOTOGRAPH OF SALLY WARD AND WAKULLA SPRINGS (DEP 2007). ......................... 12 FIGURE 3. AERIAL PHOTOGRAPH (2013) OF ST. MARKS RIVER RISE (OPEN CIRCLES REPRESENT SPRINGS).13 FIGURE 4. CONCEPTUAL APPROACH TO DEVELOPING MINIMUM FLOWS FOR SEASONAL BLOCKS ILLUSTRATING THE USE OF DIFFERENT RESOURCE TARGETS FOR DIFFERENT TIMES (E.G. WET AND DRY SEASON) OF THE YEAR. .................................................................................................. 17 FIGURE 5. DECADAL PLOTS OF MEDIAN DAILY FLOWS FOR THE ST. MARKS RIVER AND THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. ................................................................................................................... 28 FIGURE 6.COMPARISON OF MEAN DAILY FLOWS AT WAKULLA AND ST. MARKS RIVERS FOR 2006 AND 2007. .............................................................................................................................................. 29 FIGURE 7. LOCATIONS OF PROPOSED MONITORING EQUIPMENT TO ADDRESS DATA NEEDS FOR THE MFLS. .............................................................................................................................................. 32 FIGURE 8. SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM OF THE PHYSICAL HABITAT SIMULATION (PHABSIM). .......................... 36 FIGURE 9. TREE SPECIES IMPORTANCE VALUES (IV) IN VEGETATION CLASSES ALONG THE ICHETUCKNEE RIVER STUDY CORRIDOR (ATKINS 2012) ........................................................................................ 47 FIGURE 10. WAKULLA SPRINGS CAVE SYSTEM (FROM DAVIS ET. AL. 2010).............................................. 51 FIGURE 11. PROPOSED SCHEDULE FOR MFL TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT DEVELOPMENT FOR THE ST. MARKS RIVER RISE. ........................................................................................................................ 75 ATKINS 2 WP for St. Marks River Rise, Wakulla, and Sally Ward Springs MFLs 24 June 2014 FIGURE 12. PROPOSED SCHEDULE FOR MFL TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT FOR WAKULLA AND SALLY WARD SPRINGS TO BE COMPLETED IN SEQUENCE AFTER THE ST. MARKS RIVER RISE . .......................... 76 ATKINS 3 WP for St. Marks River Rise, Wakulla, and Sally Ward Springs MFLs 24 June 2014 Summary This work plan outlines the methods proposed for the Northwest Florida Water Management District