Nuclear in the Mix: A Scenario Analysis of Swiss Electricity Supply and Demand at the Horizon 2050 Submitted on April 30th 2019 Scott Reiser Master Thesis Advisors: Dr. Mearns, Prof. Sornette and Prof. Schmidt Abstract In light of the pressing public demand for clean energy, we develop a model for generating electricity supply and demand time series for the years 2030 and 2050. Our goal is to compare the electricity system that would result from the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050 with systems preserving nuclear electricity production, under various assumptions relating to electricity demand. We start be reconstructing an hourly time series for nuclear, hydro dam, run-of-river, thermal, wind and solar power for the year 2017 based on available data. We then develop several models for projecting this reconstructed data in the future and analyze the hourly, daily, weekly and seasonal variation in the supply of different energy mixes. On the demand side, we combine the effects of the development of demand per capita and of the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) on electricity demand by relying on an EV adoption and charging model. We find that the electricity mix resulting from the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050, which is dominated by solar power, leads to large seasonal imbalances, which will increase the dependency on Europe for meeting electricity demand, and thereby reduce Switzerland’s ability to control its greenhouse gases emissions alone compared to electricity mixes including nuclear power. Table of Contents List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. 4 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 6 1 A Brief History of Power Generation in Switzerland ..................................................... 7 1.1 Drivers of Electrification ................................................................................................... 7 1.1.1 Public Lighting .......................................................................................................................... 7 1.1.2 Powering Electrical Lighting ...................................................................................................... 8 1.1.3 Mobility ..................................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Electrical Companies: The Birth of an Industry ................................................................ 9 1.2.1 World War 1 and the Coal Crisis ............................................................................................. 10 1.2.2 Electrical Companies ................................................................................................................ 11 1.3 Expanding Swiss’ Power Capacity .................................................................................... 11 1.3.1 From Small Hydro to Big Plants .............................................................................................. 11 1.3.2 Big Hydro Dams ...................................................................................................................... 12 1.3.3 The Nuclear Age ...................................................................................................................... 13 1.4 The Renewable Era .......................................................................................................... 15 1.4.1 The Beginning of the End for Nuclear? .................................................................................... 16 1.4.2 From Energy to Climate Policy ................................................................................................ 16 2 The Swiss Electricity System in 2017 ........................................................................... 20 2.1 Reconstructing 2017 Time Series of Power Supply ........................................................... 20 2.1.1 The Data at Hand.................................................................................................................... 20 2.1.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 21 2.1.3 Measures of Fit ........................................................................................................................ 22 2.2 Lessons from the 2017 Swiss Electricity System ............................................................... 25 2.2.1 Electricity Production and Consumption .................................................................................. 25 2.2.2 Imports and Exports ................................................................................................................ 30 2.3 Replacing Nuclear by Wind and Solar: An illustrative example........................................ 32 2.3.1 Production, Surpluses and Deficits ........................................................................................... 33 2.3.2 Seasonal Electricity Storage ..................................................................................................... 35 3 A Model for Simulating the future Swiss Electricity Supply and Demand ................... 40 3.1 Simulating Demand .......................................................................................................... 40 3.1.1 Simulating Demand without EV charging ................................................................................ 40 3.1.2 Demand from Electrical Vehicle Charging ................................................................................ 42 3.2 Simulating Supply ............................................................................................................ 49 3.2.1 Non-dispatchable Supply Sources ............................................................................................. 49 3.2.2 Hydro Dam Model ................................................................................................................... 51 3.2.3 Dispatchable Thermal .............................................................................................................. 55 3.2.4 Stationary Electricity Storage .................................................................................................. 56 3.2.5 Imports and Exports ................................................................................................................ 63 3.3 Summary .......................................................................................................................... 64 1 4 Scenario Analysis ......................................................................................................... 65 4.1 Scenarios Formulation ...................................................................................................... 65 4.1.1 Supply Scenarios ...................................................................................................................... 65 4.1.2 Demand Scenarios .................................................................................................................... 72 4.2 Results ............................................................................................................................. 74 4.2.1 Green Wave ............................................................................................................................. 74 4.2.2 Back to the Atom .................................................................................................................... 80 4.2.3 Resilience ................................................................................................................................. 86 4.2.4 Scenarios Comparison .............................................................................................................. 91 4.3 Conclusion........................................................................................................................ 96 Appendix ............................................................................................................................. 98 A. Power, Energy and Capacity Factors............................................................................................ 98 B. Simulated and Reconstructed Production ..................................................................................... 98 C. Parameters of the hydro dam model ........................................................................................... 101 D. Choice of Storage Strategy ......................................................................................................... 103 E. Electricity Storage Model, Mathematical Formulation ................................................................ 103 F. Choice of Supply-side Scenario Parameters ................................................................................. 104 G. Supply Model Input Parameters ................................................................................................. 107 H. Choice of Demand-side Scenario Parameters ............................................................................... 108 I. Sensitivity Analysis of Aggregate Demand .................................................................................. 111 J. Green Wave