Hybrid threats to the Ukrainian part of the Danube region Artem Fylypenko, National Institute for Strategic Studies Ukraine, Odesa 2021 What are the hybrid threats? What are main characteristics of the Ukrainian part of the Danube region, its strength and weaknesses, it`s vulnerability to hybrid threats? How hybrid activities are carried out in practice? What are the hybrid threats? "Hybrid threats combine military and "The term hybrid threat refers to an non-military as well as covert and action conducted by state or non-state overt means, including disinformation, actors, whose goal is to undermine or harm a target by influencing its cyber attacks, economic pressure, decision-making at the local, regional, deployment of irregular armed groups state or institutional level. Such and use of regular forces. Hybrid actions are coordinated and methods are used to blur the lines synchronized and deliberately target between war and peace, and attempt democratic states’ and institutions’ to sow doubt in the minds of target vulnerabilities. Activities can take place, for example, in the political, populations. They aim to destabilise economic, military, civil or information and undermine societies." domains. They are conducted using a wide range of means and designed to Official website of NATO remain below the threshold of detection and attribution." The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats The Ukrainian part of the Danube region Weaknesses of the Ukrainian part of the Danube region Zakarpattia oblast Ivano-Frankivsk Chernivtsi oblast Odesa oblast oblast (southern districts - Bessarabia) Till 1918 - Austria- Till 1918 - Austria- Till 1918 - Austria- Till 1918 - Russian Hungary Hungary Hungary impire 1918-1938 - 1918-1939 - Poland 1918-1940 - Romania 1918-1940 - Romania Czechoslovakia 1939-1991 - Soviet 1940-1941 - Soviet 1940-1941 - Soviet 1938-1944 - Union (Ukrainian Union (Ukrainian Union (Ukrainian Hungary SSR) SSR) SSR) 1945-1991 - Soviet Since 1991 - Ukraine 1941-1944 - Romania 1941-1944 - Romania Union (Ukrainian 1945-1991 - Soviet 1945-1991 - Soviet SSR) Union (Ukrainian Union (Ukrainian Since 1991 - SSR) SSR) Ukraine Since 1991 - Ukraine Since 1991 - Ukraine Weaknesses of the Ukrainian part of the Danube region Weaknesses of the Ukrainian part of the Danube region Zakarpattia Ivano- Chernivtsi Odesa oblast oblast Frankivsk oblast (southern districts - oblast Bessarabia) Ukrainians - 80,5 Ukrainians - Ukrainians - 75 Ukrainians - 62,8 Hungarians - 12,1 97,5 Romanians+ (35,8) Romanians - 2,6 Russians - 2 Moldavians - Russians - 29,7 (12,7) Russians - 2,5 Poles - 0,1 19,8 Bulgarians - 6,1 (24,8) Romas - 1,1 Others - 0,5 Russians - 4,1 Moldavians - 5 (15,2) Slovaks - 0,8 Gagauzes - 1,1 (4,6) Jews - 0,6 Bessarabia problem Separatism in Odesa, spring 2014 An attempt to provoke Bessarabian separatism: Bessarabian People`s Republic Terrorism in Odesa 2014-2015 Fire-rising of Center of Hungarian Culture in Uzhgorod, 2018 “Romanofobia” and “Romania threat” Creating fake news, Odesa region Creating fake news, Zakarpattia region Creating fake news, Moldova Hybrid threats to the Ukrainian part of the Danube region Thank you for attention .