Building Toward a Stable and Cooperative Long-Term U.S.-China Strategic Relationship Results of a Track 2 Joint Study by U.S. and Chinese Experts DECEMBER 31, 2012 Project Leaders Dr. Lewis A. Dunn (Science Applications International Corporation) Mr. Ralph Cossa and Mr. Brad Glosserman (The Pacific Forum CSIS) Mr. Li Hong (China Arms Control and Disarmament Association) Dr. Lewis A. Dunn Editor Organized by Science Applications International Corporation, The Pacific Forum CSIS, and China Arms Control and Disarmament Association with the support of the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration and the Ford Foundation The views herein are those of the authors not necessarily those of SAIC, The Pacific Forum CSIS, or CACDA or any of their sponsoring organizations. Acknowledgements The organizers would like to thank all of the American and Chinese paper writers for their participation in this project. Their contributions were the key to the project’s success and also demonstrated the benefits of this type of joint undertaking on the part of Chinese and American experts. Mr. David Santoro of Pacific Forum CSIS also played a key role in helping organize the July, 2012 Beijing workshop of the paper-writers. Science Applications International Corporation and the Pacific Forum CSIS also would like to thank the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy for its support of this project. The China Arms Control and Disarmament Association would like to thank the Ford Foundation for its support. The authors alone are responsible for the contents of the report. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | i ii | BUILDING TOWARD A STABLE AND COOPERATIVE LONG-TERM U.S.-CHINA STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP List of Authors – In Order of Papers Dr. Michael Nacht is Thomas and Alison Schneider Professor of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley. He was Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs in the Obama Administration and Assistant Director for Strategic and Eurasian Affairs of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency in the Clinton Administration. Major General Pan Zhenqiang (Retired) is currently Senior Adviser to the China Reform Forum (CRF), and member of the Executive Committee of the Council of Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. He is the former director of the Institute of Strategic Studies, National Defense University (NDU), PLA, and China. Mr. Li Hong is the Secretary General of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association. Dr. Christopher Twomey is an associate professor with the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA, where he researches Chinese foreign policy and East Asian security, manages projects for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and consults widely on strategic issues. He recently authored The Military Lens: Doctrinal Differences and Deterrence Failure in Sino-American Relations (Cornell University Press, 2010). Ambassador Linton Brooks served as Administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, responsible for the U.S. nuclear weapons program and for the Department of Energy’s international nuclear nonproliferation programs. His five decades of public service includes Chief U.S. Negotiator for the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, Director of Defense Programs and Arms Control on the National Security Council staff, and a number of Defense Department positions. He is now an independent consultant. Professor Gu Guoliang is a Senior Research Fellow and the Director of the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation Studies (which he established in 1998) of the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. During his career as a Chinese diplomat, he served as Counselor of the Chinese Delegation to the UN Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. He is a graduate of the Shanghai Institute of Foreign Languages and has a M.A. from the School of Advanced International Studies of the Johns Hopkins University. Dr. Li Bin is Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Professor at Tsinghua University's Department of International Relations. He is a physicist by training. Li began his arms control work as a policy researcher in the Chinese nuclear establishment. He then joined the academic circle in 1999 to study China's nuclear arms control and diplomacy. He has published papers and contributed to books in this area. Dr. Eric Heginbotham is a Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation specializing in East Asian security issues. He has recently led RAND projects assessing U.S. and Chinese relative military capabilities. His most recent book is Chinese and Indian Strategic Behavior: Growing Power and Alarm (Cambridge University Press, 2012). He has published articles on Japanese and Chinese foreign policy and strategic issues. Dr. Lewis A. Dunn is a Senior Vice President of Science Applications International Corporation. At SAIC, he has led studies and supported U.S. policymakers on a broad range of non-proliferation, nuclear arms control, and nuclear security issues. Dr. Dunn served as Assistant Director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency from 1983-1987 and as Ambassador to the 1985 Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty Review Conference. TABLE OF CONTENTS | iii Dr. Wu Chunsi is Executive Director of the Institute of International Strategic Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. Her major research interests include China-U.S. relations, nuclear strategy, and arms control. Dr. Shen Dingli, a physicist by training, is a professor of international relations at Fudan University. He is the Executive Dean of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, and Director of the Center for American Studies. He is also the founder and director of China's first non-government-based Program on Arms Control and Regional Security at Fudan University. Dr. Lora Saalman is an associate in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace based at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing. Saalman completed her Ph.D. at Tsinghua University - the first American to earn a doctorate in the Department of International Relations - and has been a visiting fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, a research associate at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, and a Center for Nonproliferation Studies fellow at the International Atomic Energy Agency. Mr. William Tobey was Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration, with responsibility for programs to prevent nuclear proliferation and terrorism by detecting, securing, and disposing of dangerous nuclear material. Mr. Tobey served on the National Security Council Staff in three administrations, in defense, arms control, and counter- proliferation positions. He has participated in negotiations ranging from the START talks with the Soviet Union to the Six Party Talks with North Korea. Dr. Fan Jishe is a Senior Fellow and Professor in the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. He also serves as the Deputy Director of the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation Studies in the Institute. He has been a visiting scholar at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies of the Monterey Institute of International Studies, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, and the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Dr. Liu Chong is an assistant research professor at the Institute of Arms Control and Security Studies in the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR). His work covers nonproliferation, nuclear disarmament, peaceful use of nuclear energy and nuclear security. Prior to joining CICIR (2002~2008), he earned an M.A of International Relations (with honors) and B.S. of Engineering Physics from Tsinghua University. Mr. Toby Dalton is deputy director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Prior to joining Carnegie, he served for 9 years in the Office of Nonproliferation and International Security at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration. iv | BUILDING TOWARD A STABLE AND COOPERATIVE LONG-TERM U.S.-CHINA STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP Table of Contents Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................................... i List of Authors – In Order of Papers .......................................................................................................... iii Foreword ix Dr. Lewis A. Dunn (SAIC), Mr. Ralph Cossa and Mr. Brad Glosserman (The Pacific Forum CSIS), Mr. Li Hong (CACDA) The Joint Study Project ........................................................................................................................... ix Building Habits of Cooperation ............................................................................................................... x Introduction 1 Dr. Lewis A. Dunn Topic 1: Elements of a Cooperative and Stable Long-Term U.S.-China Strategic Relationship .............. 1 Topic 2: Challenges and Opportunities for Building a Stable and Cooperative China-U.S. Strategic Relationship .............................................................................................................................. 2 Topic 3: Elements and Roles of Enhanced Dialogue for Strategic Reassurance