UNDERSTANDING TRAVEL BEHAVIOR Research Scan Authors Elliot Martin, Susan Shaheen, and Ismail Zohdy Research Team Nelson Chan, Apaar Bansal, Abhinav Bhattacharyya, Aly Tawfik, Balaji Yelchuru, Rachel Finson, and Christina Yeung Yam Wah Prepared By Booz Allen Hamilton University of California, Berkley – Transportation Sustainability Research Center NOTICE This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof. The U.S. Government is not endorsing any manufacturers, products, or services cited herein and any trade name that may appear in the work has been included only because it is essential to the contents of the work. Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 1.0. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER 2.0. PRESENT DAY TRAVEL BEHAVIOR MEASUREMENT AND RESEARCH WITHIN THE UNITED STATES ............................................................................................................ 15 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 15 Trends and Measurement of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)............................................................. 16 VMT Measurement in Traffic Volume Trends .......................................................................... 17 NHTS Measurement of VMT ........................................................................................................ 22 FHWA Forecasting of VMT ........................................................................................................... 24 The Limitation of the VMT Measure ........................................................................................... 27 Trends and Measurement of Person Miles Traveled (PMT) ............................................................. 28 PMT Measurement in the NHTS ................................................................................................. 28 PMT Measurement in the Highway Statistics Series ............................................................ 30 Measurements of PMT by Mode and Related Challenges .................................................. 30 Trends in Modal Splits and Vehicle Ownership..................................................................................... 32 Regional Changes in Modal Share for Commuting ............................................................... 32 Demographic Associations with Travel Behavior ................................................................... 36 Vehicle Ownership ........................................................................................................................... 38 Brief Summary of Trends in Transportation Energy Consumption and Emissions .................... 40 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transportation .................................................................. 42 Telework and Telecommuting..................................................................................................................... 42 Trends 42 Non-Work Travel ............................................................................................................................................. 45 Understanding Non-Work Travel ................................................................................................. 45 Amount of Non-Work Travel ......................................................................................................... 45 Trip Purpose Distributions ............................................................................................................. 46 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................... 46 Chapter 2 References ................................................................................................................................... 47 CHAPTER 3.0. SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS CHANGING TRAVEL BEHAVIOR TODAY ...................................................................................................................................................... 50 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 50 Understanding Travel Behavior – Research Scan | i Population Growth and Immigration ......................................................................................................... 51 Immigrants and Travel .................................................................................................................... 53 Suburbanization and its Impacts on Travel Behavior............................................................ 54 Regional Migration ........................................................................................................................... 58 Development of Megaregions....................................................................................................... 59 Effect of Income Growth Trends on Travel Behavior .......................................................................... 61 Effect of Age Distribution Trends on Travel Behavior ......................................................................... 64 Gender ............................................................................................................................................................... 66 Labor Force Participation ............................................................................................................... 67 Household Structure and Responsibilities ................................................................................ 70 Social and Cultural Factors ......................................................................................................................... 71 Attitudes towards Driving ............................................................................................................... 71 Attitudes towards the Environment and Climate Change .................................................... 72 Attitudes towards Information and Communication Technology ....................................... 72 Attitude towards Sharing ................................................................................................................ 73 Known Data Gaps and Limitations ............................................................................................................ 74 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................... 75 Chapter 3 References ................................................................................................................................... 76 CHAPTER 4.0. TRANSFORMATIVE TECHNOLOGY AND SYSTEMS CHANGING TRAVEL BEHAVIOR TODAY ................................................................................................................................ 80 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 80 Emerging Modes of Travel ........................................................................................................................... 80 Shared Mobility ................................................................................................................................. 81 Automated Vehicle Technology ................................................................................................... 90 On-Demand Transit and Microtransit Services ....................................................................... 91 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) ............................................. 93 Alternatives to Work Travel ......................................................................................................................... 94 Alternatives to Non-Work Travel ................................................................................................................ 96 Online Shopping (E-Commerce) ................................................................................................. 96 Telemedicine .................................................................................................................................... 100 Innovative Business Models ...................................................................................................................... 101 Multi-Modal Traveler Information ............................................................................................................. 105 Transit Agency Initiatives ............................................................................................................. 105 Mobile App Initiatives .................................................................................................................... 106 Advanced Infrastructure and Pricing ...................................................................................................... 114 Active Demand