Risk Profile of Port Congestion: Cape Town Container Terminal Case study Lilian Potgieter Thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Commerce in Logistics Management in the Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences at Stellenbosch University Supervisor: Dr Leila Goedhals-Gerber Co-Supervisor: Prof Jan Havenga March 2016 Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Declaration of Originality By submitting this thesis electronically, I declare that the entirety of the work contained therein is my own, original work, that I am the sole author thereof (save to the extent explicitly otherwise stated), that reproduction and publication thereof by Stellenbosch University will not infringe any third party rights and that I have not previously in its entirely or in part submitted it for obtaining any qualification. Lilian Potgieter Date: ……………………. Copyright © 2016 Stellenbosch University All rights reserved i Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Abstract Supply chains, both complex and simple, are often exposed to various levels of risk stemming from different sources. These risks, whether minor or critical, require a certain level of management to mitigate and control frequency and overall impact. The South African maritime industry suffers from a number of risks, with the most prominent source of risk stemming from vessel and vehicle congestion within port terminals. In most cases, this is due to a lack of port capacity, lack of operator productivity, severe weather conditions and/or system-related challenges. In South Africa, one of the most important ports – the Port of Cape Town – faces two risks associated with port congestion, namely, severe weather and system delays. These two risks place pressure on port management and can cause inefficiencies in both port operations and the operations of international shipping companies. This study focuses on developing risk profiles of current and future port congestion within the Cape Town Container Terminal, with the primary objective being to highlight the importance of managing weather- and system-related port congestion within the container terminal. The secondary objective of the study is to suggest areas for future research on port congestion in other South African ports. Overall, the purpose of this study is to offer some insight into port congestion as a risk to efficiency for the benefit of both South African ports and international shipping companies. The research conducted for this study was done in two phases, namely, exploratory secondary research followed by self-conducted primary research. The secondary literature research provided background information on the maritime industry, the Port of Cape Town, and port congestion in the World and in South Africa specifically. In addition, the primary data collected was used to analyse current port congestion within the container terminal, create forecasts of future congestion, and finally develop risk profiles of port congestion within the Cape Town Container Terminal specifically. The findings of this study indicate that vessel related congestion, specifically anchorage congestion, is the main risk within the Cape Town Container Terminal, while landside port congestion is likely to become a less severe risk over time. This is, however, likely to be influenced by truck queuing time and the 2015 truck ban, which were not included in this study. The findings of this study indicate that maritime-side risk is of greater concern, and that risk mitigation strategies should be considered in the present and the future. ii Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za In conclusion, it is recommended that further research be conducted on the cost implications of port congestion, to determine the need for long-term financial investments, and on the impact of vehicle queuing and the proposed truck ban. Furthermore, it is suggested that a similar study be conducted on port congestion within the Durban Port container terminal, as research indicates that this terminal is also prone to port congestion issues. Keywords: Cape Town Container Terminal; Container trucks; Ocean carriers; Operational risk; Port congestion; Risk profile; Weather and system-related port congestion. iii Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Opsomming Voorsieningskettings, beide kompleks en eenvoudig, word gereeld aan verskeie grade van risiko uit verskillende bronne blootgestel. Hierdie risiko’s, hetsy klein of krities, benodig ‘n sekere vlak van bestuur om die frekwensie en algehele uitwerking te versag en te beheer. Die Suid-Afrikaanse maritieme industrie ervaar ‘n aantal risiko’s. Die mees prominente bron van risiko is die opeenhoping van skepe en voertuie binne hawens. In die meeste gevalle is dit as gevolg van ‘n tekort aan kapasiteit, lae arbeidsproduktiwiteit, swaar weersomstandighede en/of stelselverwante uitdagings. Een van Suid-Afrika se belangrikste hawens – Kaapstad-hawe – staar twee risiko’s verwant aan hawe-opeenhoping in die gesig, naamlik swaar weersomstandighede en stelselvertragings. Hierdie twee risiko’s plaas druk op hawe-bestuur en kan ondoeltreffendhede in beide hawebedrywighede en vir internasionale skeepsmaatskappye veroorsaak. Hierdie studie fokus op die ontwikkeling van risikoprofiele van huidige en toekomstige opeenhoping binne die Kaapstad-houerterminaal, met die primêre doel om die belangrikheid van die bestuur van weer- en stelselverwante opeenhopings binne die houerterminaal te beklemtoon. Die sekondêre doel van die studie is om toekomstige navorsing in hawe- opeenhoping in ander Suid-Afrikaanse hawens voor te stel. In die algemeen was die doel van hierdie studie om insig te kry in hawe-opeenhoping as ‘n risiko tot doeltreffendheid, tot die voordeel van beide Suid-Afrikaanse hawens en internasionale skeepsmaatskappye. Die navorsing vir hierdie studie het in twee fases plaasgevind, naamlik, ondersoekende sekondêre navorsing gevolg deur self-uitgevoerde primêre navorsing. Die sekondêre literatuurnavorsing verskaf agtergrondinligting oor die maritieme industrie, Kaapstad-hawe en hawe-opeenhoping in die wêreld en spesifiek in Suid-Afrika. Primêre data is gebruik om die huidige hawe-opeenhoping binne die haweterminaal te ontleed, vooruitskattings vir toekomstige opeenhoping te maak, en risikoprofiele van hawe-opeenhoping binne spesifiek die Kaapstad-houerterminaal te ontwikkel. Die bevindinge van die studie dui daarop dat skeepverwante opeenhoping, meer spesifiek vasmeerplekopeenhoping, die vernaamste risiko in Kaapstad-houerterminaal is, terwyl landopeenhoping oor tyd ‘n mindere risiko sal word. iv Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Hierdie sal egter moontlik deur voertuigtoustaantyd en die 2015-trokverbod beïnvloed word wat nie in hierdie studie in berekening gebring is nie. Die bevindinge van hierdie studie dui daarop dat maritieme risikoverligtingstrategieë huidiglik en vir die toekoms oorweeg moet word. Ten slotte word daar aanbeveel dat verdere navorsing oor die koste-implikasie van hawe- opeenhoping gedoen moet word om die behoefte aan langtermyn finansiële beleggings te bepaal, en om die impak van voertuie wat toustaan en die voorgestelde trokverbod te bepaal. Daar word ook voorgestel dat ‘n soortgelyke studie op hawe-opeenhoping binne die Durban- hawehouerterminaal gedoen word, aangesien navorsing daarop dui dat hierdie terminaal neig na hawe-opeenhopingsprobleme. Sleutelwoorde: Kaapstad-houerterminaal; Houervragmotors; Skeepsrederye; Operasionele risiko’s; Hawe- opeenhoping; Risiko profiel; Weer- en stelsel- verwante hawe-opeenhoping. v Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Acknowledgements First and foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Dr Leila Goedhals-Gerber, and on occasion Prof Jan Havenga, for their supervision, support and guidance throughout my Master’s degree. Dr Goedhals-Gerber’s quiet patience and immense knowledge was instrumental in securing research contacts and during the writing phases of my thesis. In addition to my supervisor (and co-supervisor), I would like to thank the funders of my Master’s thesis, namely, the Department of Logistics at Stellenbosch and my father, for assisting me in accomplishing this esteemed academic achievement. My sincere thanks also go to Prof Daan Nel who was kind enough to assist me with the statistical analysis and forecasting aspects of my study. Without his patience and assistance this study would not have been possible. I thank the study participants who were both willing and able to assist in the completion of my Master’s thesis. The assistance of representatives from Transnet National Ports Authority, Transnet Port Terminals, Berry & Donaldson Shipping, Safmarine, Maersk Line and Mediterranean Shipping Company was vital to the successful completion of this study. Last but not the least; I would like to thank my parents, my close friends and my devoted partner for their continuous support and motivation throughout the writing of this thesis and every other aspect of my life. vi Stellenbosch University https://scholar.sun.ac.za Table of Contents Declaration of Originality .......................................................................................................... i Abstract ................................................................................................................................... ii Opsomming ............................................................................................................................ iv Acknowledgements