ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF GENDER INEQUALITY IN NIGER Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Macroeconomics & Trade and Investments Global Prac�ce Gender Innova�on Lab Educa�on Global Prac�ce Public Disclosure Authorized Africa Region DOCUMENT OF THE WORLD BANK ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF GENDER INEQUALITY IN NIGER October 31, 2019 Macroeconomics & Trade and Investments Global Practice Gender Innovation Lab Education Global Practice Africa Region THIS DOCUMENT HAS A RESTRICTED DISTRIBUTION AND MAY BE USED BY RECIPIENTS ONLY IN THE PERFORMANCE OF THEIR OFFICIAL DUTIES. ITS CONTENT MY NOT OTHERWISE BE DISCLOSED WITHOUT WORLD BANK GROUP AUTHORIZATION. Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................... X CHAPTER I – INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 1 Conceptual Framework ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 2 Methodology For Estimating The Cost of Gender Inequality .............................................. 3 CHAPTER 2 – GENDER INEQUALITY IN ADOLESCENCE: GIRLS’ EDUCATION, CHILD MARRIAGE, AND EARLY CHILDBEARING ................................................. 5 Trends in Educational Attainment, Child Marriage, and Early Childbearing ...................... 5 Impacts Between Education, Child Marriage, and Early ChildBearing in Niger .................. 9 Analysis of Factors Leading to Low Educational Attainment for Girls .............................. 12 Qualitative Analysis of Factors Leading to Child Marriage and Early Childbearing ......... 14 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 15 CHAPTER 3 – PROGRAMS AND POLICIES FOR EMPOWERING ADOLESCENT GIRLS: LESSONS FROM INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE ..................................... 16 Policy Options FoR ImprovING Opportunities for Adolescent Girls ................................... 16 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 20 CHAPTER 4 – GENDER INEQUALITY AT HOME: IMPACTS ON FERTILITY, HEALTH, NUTRITION, AND DECISION-MAKING ................................................ 22 Impact of Gender Inequality on Fertility and Population Growth ..................................... 22 Welfare Benefits and Budget Savings from Reduced Population Growth ........................ 24 Impact of Gender Inequality on Health and Nutrition Outcomes ..................................... 25 Economic Benefits from Reduced Under-Five Mortality and Stunting .............................. 26 Impact of Gender Inequality on Decision-Making Ability and Other Areas ...................... 26 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 28 vi Economic Impacts of Gender Inequality in Niger CHAPTER 5 – GENDER INEQUALITY AT WORK: AGRICULTURE, ENTREPRENEURSHIP, WAGES, AND SKILLS ....................................................... 29 Aggregate Cost of Gender Inequality at Work ................................................................... 29 Gender Inequality in Agricultural Productivity ................................................................... 30 Gender Inequality in Entrepreneurship ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 31 Gender Inequality in Earnings ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 32 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 33 CHAPTER 6 – SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF ECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM GENDER EQUALITY ................................................................. 34 Estimating Benefits with a Computable General Equilibrium Model ................................ 34 Reducing the Gender Gap in Education .............................................................................. 35 Higher Educational Attainment and lower fertility ............................................................ 36 Increasing Labor Force Participation and Productivity of Women .................................... 38 alternative Catching-up scenario for the largeR costs of gender inequality .................... 39 CHAPTER 7 – PROGRAMS AND POLICIES FOR EMPOWERING ADULT WOMEN: LESSONS FROM INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE ................................ 41 Assessing Niger’s Legal Framework for Women’s EMPLOYMENT ...................................... 41 Improving Earnings Opportunities for Women .................................................................. 44 CHAPTER 8 – CONCLUSION ................................................................................ 48 METHODOLOGICAL ANNEX ON COMPARATIVE STATICS ................................ 52 METHODOLOGICAL ANNEX ON THE NIGER COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL ....................................................................... 54 Methodological caveats �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 54 Static and dynamic modules in the Niger CGE model ........................................................ 55 Dynamic module ................................................................................................................... 57 Sectors and factors of production in the Niger CGE model ............................................... 58 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................ 59 List of Figures Figure 1.1: Conceptual Framework ...................................................................................... 3 Figure 2.1: Primary school completion for girls by age in WCA countries (%) ................. 6 Figure 2.2: Prevalence of child marriage by age in WCA countries (%) ............................ 8 Figure 2.3: Educational attainment and child marriage in WCA countries (%) .............. 10 Figure 5.1: Gender gap in firm monthly profit by sector ................................................. 31 Figure 6.1: GDP gains from closing gender gap in education by 2030 ............................ 36 Figure 6.2: Effects of reduced fertility and significant progress toward universal education by 2030 ............................................................................................ 37 Figure 6.3: Percentage of GDP gains from a demographic transition and higher educational attainment by 2030 ..................................................................... 37 List of Boxes Box 0.1: Limitations of Methodologies for Estimating the Cost of Gender Inequality ���� xiv Box 0.2: Niger’s Efforts to Promote Gender Equality ....................................................... xvi Box 2.1: Measuring Educational Attainment, Child Marriage, and Early Childbearing Over Time .......................................................................................... 9 Box 2.2: Measuring the Share of Early Childbirths Due to Child Marriage ��������������������� 12 Box 3.1: Child Marriage Laws Are Needed but Not Sufficient ......................................... 17 Box 3.2: Theories of Change for Interventions Targeting Adolescent Girls ��������������������� 18 Box 3.3: Sahel Women’s Empowerment and the Demographic Dividend (SWEDD) Project .................................................................................................... 19 Box 3.4: Improving Educational Attainment and Learning for Girls ................................ 20 Box 6.1: Computable General Equilibrium Model ............................................................. 34 Box 7.1: Methodology for Analyzing Women, Business, and the Law Data ................... 42 Box 7.2: Considerations in Designing Adult Literacy Programs ........................................ 45 Box 7.3: Successful Experiences in Promoting Women’s Economic Empowerment �������� 46 List of Tables Table 0.1: Assessment of Niger’s legal framework for women, business, and the law ..... xiii Table 0.2: Comparison of gains in per capita GDP under two approaches .................... xiv Table 0.3: Summary of comparative statics results on the cost of gender inequality ..... xv Table 0.4: Summary of CGE results on cost of gender inequality ................................... xvi Table 2.1: Share of individuals completing various levels of schooling (%) ...................... 7 Table 2.2: Trends in child marriage and early childbearing (by age group) ...................... 8 Table 2.3: Population shares of four target groups among girls aged 10-19 (%) ........... 10 Table 2.4: Reasons for girls aged 15-24 dropping out of school (%) ............................... 11 Table 2.5: Impact of child marriage on girls’ educational attainment ............................ 11 Table 4.1: Impact of gender inequality on total fertility .................................................. 23 Table 4.2: Predicted national total fertility in comparator countries under current conditions .............................................................................................. 23 Table 4.3: Reductions in annual rates of population growth from base with gender inequality ..............................................................................................