REPORT Maine Wood Volume and Projection Study Prepared for: FOR/Maine Prepared by: Gary Mullaney Ernest Bowling David Stevens May 21, 2018 85138F May 17, 2018 FOR/Maine Page i TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................................................. i 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Summary by Species Group .................................................................................................................. 2 Summary by Megaregion ....................................................................................................................... 6 2. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................... 7 Background and Purpose ...................................................................................................................... 7 Methodology - Current ........................................................................................................................... 7 Methodology - Modeling Approach ................................................................................................... 8 Mix By Landownership ........................................................................................................................ 10 3. MAINE’S TIMBER RESOURCE: CURRENT STATUS, RECENT AND FUTURE TRENDS........... 11 Spruce-fir – Current .............................................................................................................................. 11 Spruce-Fir - Modeled Forward ......................................................................................................... 14 Mixed Dense Hardwood – Current ................................................................................................. 18 Mixed Dense Hardwood - Modeled Forward ............................................................................. 22 Pine Current ............................................................................................................................................. 25 Pine - Modeled Forward ..................................................................................................................... 28 Other Softwood (Primarily Hemlock) – Current ....................................................................... 31 Other Softwood (Primarily Hemlock) - Modeled Forward ................................................... 34 Aspen – Current ...................................................................................................................................... 37 Aspen - Modeled Forward .................................................................................................................. 40 Cedar – Current ...................................................................................................................................... 43 Cedar - Modeled Forward .................................................................................................................. 46 4. DERIVATION OF ESTIMATED 2017 (BASE LEVEL) DEMAND ....................................................... 49 APPENDIX AppendixA. Modeling Assumptions LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1. Relative Size of Resource by Species Group .......................................................................... 2 Figure 1.2. Megaregions ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 3.1. Spruce-fir Volume Per Acre on Approximate FIA Plot Locations .............................. 11 Figure 3.2. Age Class Distribution of Spruce-fir Forest Cover Types .............................................. 13 Figure 3.3. Run1, Distribution of Average 50-year Modeled Harvest of Spruce-fir Across Landowner Types...................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 3.4. Run1, 50-year Harvest of Spruce-fir Across Megaregions ............................................ 15 Figure 3.5. Run3, 50-year Harvest of Spruce-fir by Landowner Type ............................................ 15 Figure 3.6. Run3, 50-year Inventory of Spruce-fir by Landowner Type ........................................ 16 Figure 3.7. Run3, 50-year Inventory of Spruce-fir by Landowner Type, with Discounts ....... 17 Figure 3.8. Mixed Dense Hardwood Volume Per Acre on Approximate FIA Plot Locations .. 18 Figure 3.9. Age Class Distribution of Hardwood Cover Types on Large Private Lands ........... 20 Figure 3.10. Age Class Distribution of Hardwood Cover Types on Small Private Lands......... 21 Figure 3.11. Run 1, Distribution of Average 50-year Modeled Harvest of Mixed Dense Hardwoods Across Landowner Types .............................................................................................. 22 May 17, 2018 FOR/Maine Page ii Figure 3.12. Run1, 50-year Distribution of Modeled Harvest of Mixed Dense Hardwoods Across Megaregions ................................................................................................................................. 23 Figure 3.13. Run3, Modeled, Non-declining, 50-year Harvest of Mixed Dense Hardwood by Landowner Type ........................................................................................................................................ 24 Figure 3.14. Run3, Modeled, Non-declining, 50-year Harvest of Mixed Dense Hardwood by Landowner Type, With Discounts ...................................................................................................... 24 Figure 3.15. Pine Volume Per Acre on Approximate FIA Plot Locations ....................................... 25 Figure 3.16. Age Class Distribution of Pine Forest Cover Types – All Owners ............................ 27 Figure 3.17. Acres of Pine Forest Cover Types Since 1995 ................................................................. 27 Figure 3.18. Run1, Distribution of Average 50-year Modeled Harvest of Pine Across Landowner Types...................................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 3.19. Run 1, 50-year Distribution of Modeled Harvest of Pine Across Megaregions.. 29 Figure 3.20. Run3, 50-year Harvest of Pine by Landowner Type ..................................................... 30 Figure 3.21. Run3, 50-year Harvest of Pine by Landowner Type, With Discounts ................... 30 Figure 3.22. Other Softwood Volume Per Acre on Approximate FIA Plot Locations ................ 31 Figure 3.23. Age Class Distribution of Hemlock Forest Cover Type ................................................ 33 Figure 3.24. Hemlock Volume by Diameter Class .................................................................................... 34 Figure 3.25. Run1, Distribution of Average 50-year Modeled Harvest of Other Softwood Across Landowner Types ....................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 3.26. Run1, 50-year Distribution of Modeled Harvest of Other Softwood Across Megaregions ................................................................................................................................................ 35 Figure 3.27. Run3, 50-year Harvest of Other Softwood by Landowner Type.............................. 35 Figure 3.28. Aspen Volume Per Acre on Approximate FIA Plot Locations ................................... 37 Figure 3.29. Acreage of Aspen Forest Cover Type Since 1995 ........................................................... 39 Figure 3.30. Age Class Distribution of Aspen Forest Cover Type...................................................... 39 Figure 3.31. Run1, Distribution of Average 50-year Modeled Harvest of Aspen Across Landowner Types...................................................................................................................................... 41 Figure 3.32. Run1, 50-year Distribution of Modeled Harvest of Aspen Across Megaregions ........................................................................................................................................................................... 41 Figure 3.33. Run3, 50-year Harvest of Aspen by Landowner Type ................................................. 42 Figure 3.34. Cedar Volume Per Acre on Approximate FIA Plot Locations .................................... 43 Figure 3.35. Age Class Distribution of Cedar Stands .............................................................................. 45 Figure 3.36. Run1, Distribution of Average 50-year Modeled Harvest of Cedar Across Landowner Types...................................................................................................................................... 46 Figure 3.37. Run1, 50-year Distribution of Modeled Harvest of Cedar Across Megaregions 47 Figure 3.38. Run3, Modeled, Non-declining, 50-year Harvest of Cedar by Landowner Type ........................................................................................................................................................................... 47 Figure 4.1. Aspen WPR Harvest Since 2000 .............................................................................................