Cariboo Region BC Agriculture & Climate Change Regional Adaptation Strategies series project funding provided by Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada and BC Ministry of Agriculture Funding for this project was provided by Growing Forward 2, a federal-provincial-territorial initiative. and Cariboo Regional District other project partners BCAC/ARDCorp Opinions expressed in this publication are not necessarily project delivery team those of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the BC Ministry of Agriculture and the BC Agriculture Council. Samantha Charlton Erica Crawford Allen Dobb Emily MacNair published March 2014 by Kristi Tatebe the British Columbia Agriculture & Food project & workshop support Climate Action Initiative Geneve Jasper, BC Ministry of Agriculture Karen Moores, Cariboo Regional District The BC Agriculture & Food Climate Action Initiative was Erin Robinson, Fraser Basin Council established by the BC Agriculture Council in 2008, and is led by an advisory committee of agricultural producers, food processors and representatives from various government agencies. climate data The Initiative has been supported by the Investment Agriculture Trevor Murdock, Foundation of BC with funding provided by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and the BC Ministry of Agriculture. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium graphic design www.BCAgClimateAction.ca Rocketday Arts project contact Emily MacNair [email protected] Acknowledgements he Cariboo Adaptation Strategies planning Thank you to: process was initiated by the BC Agriculture & TFood Climate Action Initiative to address priorities ■ Duncan Barnett, identified through both theClimate Change Risk Cariboo Cattlemen’s Association & Opportunity Assessment and the BC Agriculture Climate Change Action Plan (both available at ■ Josef Bauer, http://bcagclimateaction.ca). Quesnel Cattlemen’s Association Thank you to the Cariboo Regional District and ■ Rob Borsato, the agricultural organizations that supported, and District H Farmers’ Institute contributed to the success of, this project. ■ Heloise Dixon-Warren, The development of theCariboo Adaptation Strategies Cariboo Regional District Director of Area B involved contributions from many people, including approximately 80 participants who took the time to ■ Geneve Jasper, attend one, two, or all, of the project workshops. A BC Ministry of Agriculture special thank you to the agricultural producers who volunteered their time to come together and consider ■ Karen Moores, adaptation priorities and to provide their expertise Cariboo Regional District and input. ■ Tom Salley, Thank you to the project Advisory Committee Cariboo Growers members in the Cariboo region who participated in & Williams Lake Food Policy Council Committee meetings and attended the workshops. The project could not have been successfully ■ Joan Sorley, completed without their valuable insights, assistance Cariboo Regional District Director of Area F and input throughout the process. Thank you to the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium at the University of Victoria for providing the regional climate data and assistance with data interpretation. Cover photograph of hay fields on West Fraser Road, by Allen Dobb. Contents 1 Introduction 11 Priority Impact 35 Appendix A Areas, Strategies Weather, Climate Project Delivery & Actions & Variability Project Methodology 12 Impact Area 1 36 Appendix B Increasing Future Projections: wildfire risk Climate Maps & 3 Regional Context PCIC Tables 15 Impact Area 2 Changing Hydrology 39 Appendix C 5 Regional Climate Definitions Science 20 Impact Area 3 Increasing Variability 40 Appendix D Cariboo Regional Adaptive Climate Projections: 24 Impact Area 4 Management of 2020s to 2050s Changing Climate Change pests, diseases & Impacts Related Effects invasive species 41 Endnotes 27 Impact Area 5 8 Agricultural Changes to wildlife & Impacts ecological systems 30 Implementation & Monitoring Introduction In the coming years, climate change will impact the agriculture sector in British Columbia in a range of different ways. Although agricultural producers are accustomed The Cariboo plan is the first to be completed beyond to adjusting their practices to manage through the pilot project and with the commitment of difficult conditions, the scope and scale of climate funding for implementation through the Regional change is anticipated to exceed anything previously Adaptation Enhancement Fund.1 The plan is intended experienced. Strategies and actions that support and to offer clear actions suited to the specifics of the enhance adaptation are the focus of this plan. local context, both with respect to anticipated changes and local capacity and assets. In 2011–2012, a province-wide assessment of climate change-related risks and opportunities evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural Project Delivery production and the sector’s capacity to adapt. The assessment made evident that due to British A local Advisory Committee for the Cariboo Columbia’s diversity (with respect to agriculture, region was formed to provide input throughout ecology and climate), a regional approach to climate the project. This Committee included participants change adaptation is required. Although some from the Cariboo Regional District, the BC adaptation will occur at the farm level, regional Ministry of Agriculture and a number of agricultural and collaborative approaches will be critical for organizations. The agricultural producer participants supporting agricultural adaptation. volunteered their time throughout the project, representing both local production systems and Building on these findings, in 2012–2013 a pilot agricultural organizations. The Cariboo Regional project was initiated with agricultural producers, District provided staff time and expertise and agricultural organizations and local governments covered costs associated with the workshops. With in Delta and the Peace River and Cowichan Valley funding from the Growing Forward 2 Program, the regions. Each planning process resulted in a BC Agriculture & Food Climate Action Initiative distinctive set of local sector impacts and priorities, as provided core management and human resources for well as a series of strategies and actions for adapting project delivery. Please see Acknowledgements for and strengthening resilience. more details. Regional Adaptation Strategies series : Cariboo Region 1 Project Methodology the priority areas then became the focus of the The development of the Strategies involved three second set of workshops. Prior to the second set key stages: of workshops, a series of overarching goals and strategies was developed and reviewed by the 1 Project Development Advisory Committee. These materials provided Background research was conducted and a project support for the workshop action planning process plan was drafted. Two initial meetings were held (which also incorporated consideration of local with the local Advisory Committee to receive input priorities, context and resources). on the project outline and the proposed approach for the first workshop. 3 Implementation Meeting An implementation meeting was held with 2 Workshops approximately 40 participants representing many Two sets of workshops were held (each set held of the key local partners. The meeting involved in two locations — Quesnel and 150 Mile House) prioritization of draft actions based on which were for a total of four workshops. The first set of considered most important, easiest to implement workshops focused on reviewing climate change and supportive of enhanced capacity for additional projections, discussing the associated agricultural adaptation. The meeting also included discussion impacts and identifying priority impact areas. of steps to implement prioritized actions. Developing strategies and actions for adapting to photo by Allen Dobb, cattle range near 150-Mile Regional Adaptation Strategies series : Cariboo Region 2 Regional Context he Cariboo Regional District (CRD) extends with some occurrence of Douglas-fir and Ponderosa from near 70 Mile House in the south to just Pine. In the southeast corner of the region, drier Tsouth of Hixon in the north, and from the Cariboo conditions support grasslands at lower elevations, Mountains in the east to the Coast Mountains in with spruce forest in the north. Interior rainforests in the west. The region is 80,262 square kilometres and the Cariboo Mountains support Engelmann Spruce includes 12 electoral areas and four incorporated and sub-alpine fir.7 member municipalities (100 Mile House, Ques- nel, Wells and Williams Lake).2 There are also 15 The economy of the Cariboo region is resource- Secwepemc, Tsilhqot’in and Carrier communities in based, with strong agriculture, forestry, mining and the region.3 tourism sectors. In 2011, 4% of the total labour force in the CRD was employed in agriculture.8 Other key Much of the Cariboo region is high, rolling plateau industries include wood and paper manufacturing, (with multiple mountain ranges). The Fraser River and a diverse range of energy projects including winds through the region, where forage crops are an emerging bioenergy sector.9 The economy of produced on the benches of the river and its tributar- the region has been in the midst of a significant ies. The capability of the soils in much of the region transition over the past decade, largely due to the are a limiting factor, but areas with better river bench impacts associated with the Mountain Pine Beetle.10 soils are able to produce high quality forage