Organization for Forecasting and Planning: Experience in the Soviet Union and the United States Wiley IIASA International Series on Applied Systems Analysis CONFLICTING OBJECTNES IN DECISIONS Edited by David E. Bell, University ofCambridge, Ralph L. Keeney, Woodward.clyde Consultants, San Francisco, and Howard Raiffa, Harvard University. 2 MATERIAL ACCOUNTABILITY Rudolf Avenhaus, Nuclear Research Center Karlsruhe, and University ofMannheim. 3 ADAPTNE ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT Edited by C. S. Holling, University ofBritish Columbia. 4 ORGANIZATION FOR FORECASTING AND PLANNING: EXPERIENCE IN THE SOVIET UNION AND THE UNITED STATES Edited by W. R. Dill,New York University, and G. Kh. Popov, Moscow State University. International Series on 4 Applied Systems Analysis Organization for Forecasting and Planning: Experience in the Soviet Union and the United States Edited by William R. Dill Dean ofthe Faculty ofBusiness Administration, New York University G. Kh. Popov Dean ofthe Faculty ofEconomics, Moscow State University A Wiley-Interscience Publication International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis JOHN WILEY & SONS Chichester-New York-Brisbane-Toronto Copyright © 1979 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced by any means, nor transmitted, nor translated into a machine language without the written permission of the publisher. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data: Main entry under title: Organization for forecasting and planning. (Wiley IIASA international series on applied systems analysis; 4) 'A Wiley-Interscience publication.' 'The foundation of the book was laid in two seminars, one held [1974] in Sochi (USSR) and organized by the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University, and the other held [1975] in Mohonk, New York, and organized by the Faculty of Business Administration at New York University.' 1. Corporate planning- Congresses. 1. Dill, William R. II. Popov, Gavrill Kharitonovich. III. Series. 0030.28.073 1979 658.4'01 78-13620 ISBN 0 471 99720 X Typeset at the Alden Press, Oxford, London, and Northampton and printed by The Pitman Press, Bath. Editorial Board R. A. BELOUSOV W. R. DILL Professor and Head, Dean, Department of Management Faculty of Business Administration, Academy of Social Sciences New York University Moscow W.D.GUTH G. A. EGIAZARIAN Professor, Professor and Head, Faculty of Business Administration, Department of Economic and New York University Industrial Planning, Lomonosov State University, R. G. HAWKINS Moscow Professor of Finance and International Business; V. N. KIRICHENKO Chairman of International Business Deputy Director, Faculty; Scientific Research Institute, Director of Research Project on State Planning Committee Multinational Corporations in of the USSR the World Economy, New York University B. Z. MILNER Professor of the Faculty of Economics, A.KATZ Moscow State University; IBM Corporation Head of the Section "Management Methods," Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, Academy of Sciences of the USSR; Deputy Director, All-Union Research Institute for Systems Studies G. Kh. POPOV Dean, Faculty of Economics, Moscow State University M. V. SOLODKOV Former Dean, Faculty of Economics, Moscow State University v Foreword The need for more effective planning and management on the global, national, and enterprise levels is becoming more evident as societies and economies become more complex and interdependent. Scientific study and discussion related to the improve­ ment of planning and management has received increasing support in the recent past in many countries, notably in the Soviet Union and in the United States. Until very recently, however, there has been little systematic communication on these subjects between American and Soviet scholars and practitioners, and opportunities for exchange of information and to learn from each other's experiences were very limited. The system of economic management and control in the two countries is the product of different social systems. Planning in the USSR is organized and led centrally on a national level and includes all levels of territorial and economic administration in the Soviet Union. On the other hand, planning in the United States is not highly developed as a national governmental activity but is encouraged instead as a task for individual corporations or local governments. National inte­ gration of corporate and state and local government plans occurs through the work­ ing of the marketplace and the American political system. The federal government's management of the economy tends to be carried out primarily through fiscal and monetary policies, not through direct planning mechanisms. It is impossible, of course, to apply mechanically one country's planning system, or even major elements ofit, to the social system of another country. Nevertheless, acquaintance with the problems and practices of planning and forecasting in both the Soviet Union and the United States provides a rich basis for thinking about the fundamental economic and social problems that these practices are designed to address, and about how these practices might be improved. This book, prepared by a joint Soviet-American editorial board, is an effort by planning and management experts from both countries to describe their views of vii viii current planning and forecasting theory, practice, and problems. These authors analyze the patterns of development of planning and forecasting systems in each country and identify needs for and lines of further development. They identify planning and forecasting problems and practices common to both countries, and areas where joint research between the two countries might lead to greater effec­ tiveness in the planning practices of each. The book is the product of a dialogue between American and Soviet scholars and practitioners in the field of economic management. The foundation of the book was laid in two seminars, one held in Sochi (USSR) and organized by the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University, and the other held in Mohonk, New York, and organized by the Faculty of Business Administration at New York University. Presenting papers and participating in the discussions at these seminars were, from both sides, not only university professors of economics and management but also managers and professionals with active planning responsibilities at various levels in industry and government. To assure continuity, the main delegations to both conferences were the same. The week of formal discussions in each seminar was fol­ lowed by another week of field visits to a variety of industrial and governmental organizations in Moscow, New York, and Washington, D.C. These two seminars were the last in a series of five supported by the Ford Foun­ dation (USA) and the State Committee for Science and Technology (USSR). The first seminar (Turin, 1970) brought twelve professors and practitioners from each country together to discuss the use of computers in management and planning. The second (Kiev, 1972) brought a similar group together to compare approaches to organizational design. The third (New York and Boston, 1973) brought Soviet experts to discuss management education in various countries with the faculties and business associates of New York University, Harvard University, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Turin conference was a first of its kind, and as a first, it was overly formal and sometimes hindered by inexperience on both sides in communicating with the other across barriers of language and differences in general conceptions. Neverthe­ less, it ended as a success, with some of those attending agreeing to take responsibil­ ity for organizing and leading the later conferences. We have watched with great satisfaction the growth of understanding, cooper­ ation and personal friendship among the continuing participants in each new organizing committee meeting and in each successive seminar. Each new seminar tackled a more complicated and sometimes more sensitive agenda, and looked for higher standards in the preparation of discussion papers. The decision to volunteer the extra joint effort necessary to edit the results of the final two seminars for a book was a spontaneous result of the spirit that this series of seminars has generated among those who have taken part. We hope that the cooperation sponsored by the State Committee for Science and Technology and the Ford Foundation will be useful and educational. Also, we hope the appearance of this book will encourage others to take part in similar ix undertakings, and to overcome, as did those who participated in these, the unavoid­ able difficulties in collaborating on social science topics and problems across national boundaries encompassing significantly different social systems. Since the seminars were originally planned, our respective countries have initiated other programs of interchange including large-scale programs of multi­ national research on complex management problems - notably work by the Inter­ national Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. We hope this book will reinforce these developments of interchange in the field of economic and social planning and forecasting by suggesting new areas for fruitful collaboration in research, teaching, and professional and managerial practice. McGEORGE BUNDY JERMEN GVISHIANI President, The Member, USSR Academy of Ford Foundation Sciences and Deputy Chairman, USSR State Committee for