Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas – South Africa www.aspo.org.za Peak Oil and South Africa: Impacts and Mitigation Jeremy Wakeford 1 [email protected] 8 March 2007 1 Senior Lecturer, School of Economics, University of Cape Town. This paper draws in places on two previous papers (see Wakeford, 2006a and 2006b). I would like to thank Rodger Duffet, Michael de Wit, Lisa Kane and Jacqui Wakeford for providing helpful comments on earlier drafts. Any remaining errors or omissions are my sole responsibility. Please note that this paper is a work-in-progress; this version supersedes all previous versions of the paper. ASPO-SA: Guiding South Africa through Peak Oil to a Sustainable Future Contents 1 Introduction: The Importance of Oil ................................................................................1 2 The Theory and Evidence of Peak Oil: Hubbert’s Curve .................................................1 2.1 The nature of the peak .............................................................................................2 2.2 The timing of the peak ............................................................................................3 2.3 The post-peak depletion rate....................................................................................5 3 Peak Oil and Climate Change .........................................................................................6 4 Energy Substitutes, Conservation and Technological Progress ........................................7 4.1 Alternative energy sources ......................................................................................7 4.1.1 Non-renewables...............................................................................................7 4.1.2 Renewables .....................................................................................................8 4.2 Energy conservation ................................................................................................9 4.3 Technological progress ......................................................................................... 10 5 Implications of Peak Oil ............................................................................................... 10 5.1 Global implications ............................................................................................... 10 5.1.1 Economy and financial markets ..................................................................... 10 5.1.2 Transport and mobility .................................................................................. 12 5.1.3 Agriculture, food and population ................................................................... 12 5.1.4 Geopolitics and conflict ................................................................................. 12 5.2 Implications for South Africa ................................................................................ 13 5.2.1 Macroeconomy .............................................................................................. 14 5.2.2 Agriculture and food security ........................................................................ 15 5.2.3 Cities and urban planning .............................................................................. 15 5.2.4 Security ......................................................................................................... 15 6 Vision of a Sustainable Future ...................................................................................... 16 6.1.1 Population ..................................................................................................... 17 6.1.2 Energy ........................................................................................................... 17 6.1.3 Transport ....................................................................................................... 18 6.1.4 Economy ....................................................................................................... 18 6.1.5 Agriculture .................................................................................................... 20 6.1.6 Urban planning .............................................................................................. 20 7 Policy Recommendations .............................................................................................. 20 7.1 Mitigation ............................................................................................................. 20 7.2 Adaptation ............................................................................................................ 21 7.3 Cooperation .......................................................................................................... 22 8 Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 23 References ............................................................................................................................ 24 ASPO-SA: Guiding South Africa through Peak Oil to a Sustainable Future 1 1 Introduction: The Importance of Oil Oil is the quintessential commodity in the modern industrial economy. Although the industrial revolution was initially powered by coal, since the first commercial oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859 oil has gained increasing prominence in terms of its share of the world’s primary energy supply. It now accounts for over 35 per cent - the largest share. As an energy source oil is used for electricity generation, heating and – most importantly – as a liquid fuel for transportation. The world’s transport systems (including ships, trains, airplanes and road transport) depend on oil for some 90 per cent of their energy (Leggett, 2005; Heinberg, 2006). Consequently, the tourism sector in most countries is also highly reliant on oil. Industrial agriculture depends heavily on oil and natural gas for the production of fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides, as well as to power mechanised farm machinery and transport products to markets. The manufacturing sector uses oil both for energy and as a feedstock for a myriad of products from plastics to paints to pharmaceuticals. Almost all goods and most services involve the use of oil at some point in the production or distribution process. Rising production of oil has underpinned world economic growth for the last century. However, this trend of increasing supplies of the global economy’s most critical resource cannot continue indefinitely. Most simply, this is because oil (like other fossil fuels) is a finite resource. This raises the vital questions of when and how the depletion of oil will impact on societies. This paper makes an initial attempt to answer these questions, with regard to South Africa in particular, recognising that much more research needs to be done on this issue. 2 The Theory and Evidence of Peak Oil: Hubbert’s Curve In the 1950s, a petroleum geologist named M. King Hubbert theorised that oil production in any given region would roughly follow a bell-shaped curve, rising to a peak when approximately half of the total oil had been extracted, and thereafter gradually falling toward zero as extraction became progressively more difficult and costly. This production curve would mirror a similar pattern of oil discoveries, although after a substantial time lag. Hubbert applied a logistic probability distribution function to historical data on reserves and production in order to forecast the timing of peak production in a region. In 1956, Hubbert used his model to make the, then, highly contentious prediction that oil production in the lower 48 United States would peak some time between 1966 and 1972 (Heinberg, 2003: 88). He based his forecast on the pattern of oil discoveries, which had peaked in the 1930s. Hubbert turned out to be correct: the actual production peak occurred in 1970, after which date production has followed a declining trend. (Overall US production never regained its 1970 peak rate despite more recent discoveries in Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay and the Gulf of Mexico). Hubbert hypothesised that world oil supply would follow a similar bell-shaped curve, mirroring the pattern of (earlier) oil discoveries. His theory has been the subject of intense debate, particularly in recent years. The debate now centres on when the inevitable peak in world oil production will occur, not on whether it will occur (see Hirsch, 2005). Nobody can credibly deny that production of a finite resource must eventually decline toward zero. Economists, amongst others, correctly point out that higher oil prices tend to stimulate increased exploration activity. However, more exploration does not necessarily translate into more discoveries : it depends on the extent to which undiscovered oil fields still exist. Colin Campbell, the founder of ASPO, believes that over 90 per cent of recoverable conventional ASPO-SA: Guiding South Africa through Peak Oil to a Sustainable Future 2 oil has already been found. At some point, no matter how high the price of oil rises, it cannot overcome the physical limitations of a finite resource. There is growing evidence that we are nearing the world Hubbert peak: • Globally, new oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s and have been on a declining trend ever since (see Figure 1). This is despite spectacular improvements in exploration and recovery technology over the past few decades and the incentives provided by high oil prices in the 1970s and in recent years. • About half of global oil reserves are