Local Plan Preferred Scenario Transport Assessment Horsham Transport Study Appendix C Horsham Highway Model Local Model Validation Report Horsham Transport Study Horsham Highway Model Local Model Validation Report On behalf of Horsham District Council Project Ref: 45539| Rev: A | Date: June 2020 Registered Office: Buckingham Court Kingsmead Business Park, London Road, High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire, HP11 1JU Office Address: Caversham Bridge House, Waterman Place, Reading, Berkshire RG1 8DN T: +44 (0)118 950 0761 E: [email protected] Horsham Transport Model Local Model Validation Report Document Control Sheet Project Name: Horsham Transport Study Project Ref: 45539 Report Title: Horsham Highway Model LMVR Doc Ref: HTM/R2 Date: 29th June 2020 Name Position Signature Date Senior Transport Prepared by: Robert Dziurla 29/06/2020 Planner Reviewed by: Paul Gebbett Senior Associate 29/06/2020 Approved by: Kevin Lumsden Director 29/06/2020 For and on behalf of Stantec UK Limited Revision Date Description Prepared Reviewed Approved This report has been prepared by Stantec UK Limited (‘Stantec’) on behalf of its client to whom this report is addressed (‘Client’) in connection with the project described in this report and takes into account the Client's particular instructions and requirements. This report was prepared in accordance with the professional services appointment under which Stantec was appointed by its Client. This report is not intended for and should not be relied on by any third party (i.e. parties other than the Client). Stantec accepts no duty or responsibility (including in negligence) to any party other than the Client and disclaims all liability of any nature whatsoever to any such party in respect of this report. ii Horsham Transport Model Local Model Validation Report Contents Glossary ................................................................................................................................................. 1 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 2 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Model Area .................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Local Context ................................................................................................................. 3 1.4 Report Structure ............................................................................................................ 4 2 Highway Model Overview ........................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Existing Models ............................................................................................................. 5 2.3 Model Year and Time Periods ....................................................................................... 6 2.4 Vehicle Types and Travel Purposes .............................................................................. 6 3 Survey Data .................................................................................................................................. 7 3.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................ 7 3.2 Data Collection Sources ................................................................................................ 7 3.3 Journey Time Data ...................................................................................................... 16 3.4 Mobile Network Data ................................................................................................... 18 4 Network Development............................................................................................................... 20 4.1 Network Extent & Structure ......................................................................................... 20 4.2 Zoning System ............................................................................................................. 23 5 Matrix Development .................................................................................................................. 26 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 26 5.2 Mobile Network Data Matrices .................................................................................... 26 5.3 Initial Validation by Telefonica ..................................................................................... 26 5.4 MND Matrix Development ........................................................................................... 27 5.5 Development of Synthetic Matrices ............................................................................. 27 6 Model Assignment, Calibration and Validation Procedures ................................................. 28 6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 28 6.2 Network Calibration ..................................................................................................... 28 6.3 Matrix Calibration ......................................................................................................... 29 7 Model Calibration Results ........................................................................................................ 30 7.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 30 7.2 Turning Flow Calibration Results ................................................................................ 30 7.3 Strategic Road Network Calibration ............................................................................ 30 7.4 Impact of Matrix Estimation on Trip Lengths ............................................................... 32 7.5 Matrix Estimation Sector Analysis ............................................................................... 33 8 Model Validation Results .......................................................................................................... 38 8.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 38 8.2 Model Convergence .................................................................................................... 38 8.3 Flow and Journey Time Validation Criteria and Acceptability Guidelines ................... 39 iii Horsham Transport Model Local Model Validation Report 8.4 Journey Time Validation .............................................................................................. 52 8.5 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 54 9 Summary .................................................................................................................................... 55 9.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 55 9.2 Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 55 Figures Figure 1-1: Horsham Transport Model - Study Area ............................................................................. 3 Figure 3-1: WSCC Existing Traffic Count Data ..................................................................................... 9 Figure 3-2: Highways England Existing Traffic Count Data ................................................................ 11 Figure 3-3: New Traffic Count Data ..................................................................................................... 15 Figure 3-4: Journey Time Routes ........................................................................................................ 17 Figure 4-1: Network Extent .................................................................................................................. 21 Figure 4-2: Horsham District Zone ...................................................................................................... 24 Figure 4-3: Wider Area Model Zones .................................................................................................. 25 Figure 7-1: AM Peak TLD Comparison ............................................................................................... 32 Figure 7-2: PM Peak TLD Comparison ............................................................................................... 33 Figure 7-3: Model Validation Results .................................................................................................. 34 Figure 8-1: Horsham Validation Screenlines ....................................................................................... 40 Tables Table 3-1: Existing WSCC ATC Locations ........................................................................................... 8 Table 3-2: Highways England Count Location ................................................................................... 10 Table 3-3: New ATC Locations .........................................................................................................