HYBRID THREATS TO UKRAINE AND PUBLIC SECURITY. The EU and Eastern Partnership experience Analytical report Kyiv - 2018 HYBRID THREATS TO UKRAINE AND PUBLIC SECURITY. THE EU AND EASTERN PARTNERSHIP EXPERIENCE The analytical report analyses hybrid threats to Ukraine’s security, capabilities and weaknesses of the state to meet them, the experience of some countries of the European Union and the Eastern Partnership, which can be useful for Ukraine. The document also contains conclusions and recommendations on the development of Ukraine’s capabilities to ensure security of the society in the context of hybrid threats. The document may be interesting for representatives of the Ukrainian state authorities, the Eastern Partnership countries, international organizations, experts, civil society organizations working in the security sector. This analytical report was prepared within the framework of the project “Promoting building of Ukraine’s capacities to guarantee citizens’ security in the conditions of hybrid threats” with the support of the European Union and the International Renaissance Foundation within the framework of the project “Civic Synergy” (http://www.irf.ua/programs/eu/civicsynergy/), under the auspices of the Ukrainian National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum. Its content is the sole responsibility of the Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” and does not necessarily reflect views of the European Union and the International Renaissance Foundation. Under general editorship of V. Martyniuk (project manager) Expert group of the project: М.Gonchar, А.Chubyk, S.Zhuk, О.Chyzhova, H.Maksak, Yu.Tyshchenko, О.Zvarych With the support of © Centre for Global Studies “Strategy ХХІ” HYbRId THREaTS To UkRaInE and pUblIC SECURITY. THE EU and EaSTERn partnERSHIp ExpERIEnCE | CONTENTS | Summary .....................................................................................................................5 Introduction .................................................................................................................6 1. Russia’s hybrid warfare: threats of a new (old) type .............................................8 1.1. Russian hybrid threat to the security of the Ukrainian society ............................ 8 1.2. Information sphere - a key dimension of a hybrid war ...................................... 14 1.3. Progressive hybression of Russia ....................................................................... 16 1.4. approaches to hybrid threats in the EU ............................................................. 17 1.5. actual hybrid threats to Ukraine’s security ........................................................ 20 2. Weakness of the Ukrainian security system before the aggression - carte blanche for Russia ...................................................................................................................30 2.1. State ineffectiveness to guarantee public security against the RF aggression .. 30 2.2. Military organization of Ukraine — “an old cart without a wheel” ................. 34 2.3. The law enforcement sector — inviolability of the leadership and public insecurity ................................................................................................................... 38 2.4. Ukraine hooked on the Russian “Energy Needle” ............................................ 40 2.5. Economic and business relations — Ukraine tied to the RF ............................. 42 2.6. Information security gap .................................................................................... 43 2.7. The vulnerability of cyberspace ......................................................................... 45 2.8. problematic gaps in the field of fundamental rights .......................................... 46 2.9. Vulnerable system of political forces ................................................................. 48 2.10. Undefended history of Ukraine as a benefit for Russia .................................. 49 3. Gaps in state security capabilities. Current situation ...........................................52 3.1. Weaknesses of the state security mechanism ..................................................... 52 3.2. Slow changes in the establishment of a state defence system .......................... 54 3.3. New functions of law enforcement agencies in current conditions .................. 57 3.4. What restraints Ukraine’s energy independence? .............................................. 59 3.5. difficult reorientation from the Russian market ................................................ 61 3.6. Ukraine’s information policy: patching holes ................................................... 63 | 3 | HYbRId THREaTS To UkRaInE and pUblIC SECURITY. THE EU and EaSTERn partnERSHIp ExpERIEnCE 3.7. disadvantages and achievements in the cyber sphere ...................................... 66 3.8. Human rights, inter-ethnic and inter-confessional relations. Is the state capable to react? ......................................................................................................................... 69 3.9. Political parties of Ukraine. Is a stable political system formed? .................... 72 3.10. The policy of correction of historical memory as a counteraction to hybression ............................................................................................................. 73 4. The experience of the EU and EaP countries in developing state capabilities to counter hybrid threats ..............................................................................................75 4.1. Poland strengthens counteraction to hybrid threats .......................................... 75 4.2. baltic front of counteraction to hybrid aggression ........................................... 80 4.3. Hybrid War: Georgian State lessons for Ukraine ............................................. 85 4.4. Moldova in countering hybrid aggression ........................................................ 90 4.5. Integrational hybrid nature of relations between belarus and Russia ............... 94 5. Conclusions and recommendations ....................................................................100 Afterword ................................................................................................................109 | 4 | HYbRId THREaTS To UkRaInE and pUblIC SECURITY. THE EU and EaSTERn partnERSHIp ExpERIEnCE SUMMARY The hybrid warfare of the Russian Federation puts a threat to the Ukrainian society because of its unpredictability and the use of the society as an object and, at the same time, an instrument of aggression. The centralized state mechanism of the RF, which is involved in its aggression, uses actively the weaknesses of the security system of Ukraine, which needs further improvement. a comparative analysis of Ukraine’s abilities to withstand aggression at the stage of its transition to the active phase in 2014 and at the current stage can reveal the reasons for the low effectiveness of countering hybrid threats and formulate recommendations for building state capacities to guarantee the public security. at the same time, the countries of the Eastern partnership (Eap) and the EU also became a part of the theatre of aggressive actions of the Russian Federation, and, therefore, their experience in this dimension is relevant to Ukraine. during the preparation of this analytical report, the results of expert discussions, expert surveys and an international round-table were taken into account that allowed to work out a wide range of expert assessments and views in Ukraine and the countries of Eastern Europe and the EU, as well as promoted awareness of the Ukrainian society about the EU’s activities and European integration of Ukraine in the security sector. among the recommendations prepared as a result of the study, it is worth to highlight the need to develop a conceptual vision of a comprehensive counteraction to hybrid threats based on the EU model, the transition to a real parliamentary republic and the establishment of a system of state governance without the influence of the oligarchs, the elimination of corruption at all levels, and the clear formulation of public policy in the public security sector. The recommendations will be useful for Ukrainian state bodies, which are responsible for the security of the state and society, as well as interesting for the consideration by certain EU institutions, in particular, the European External action Service, the EU delegation in Ukraine, the EU advisory Mission in Ukraine, the countries of the Eastern partnership, scientific and expert organizations, which deal with security issues. | 5 | HYbRId THREaTS To UkRaInE and pUblIC SECURITY. THE EU and EaSTERn partnERSHIp ExpERIEnCE INTRODUCTION The Eastern partnership region is not stable and safe due to a number of conflicts: Crimea and donbas in Ukraine, Transnistria in Moldova, abkhazia and South ossetia in Georgia, nagorno-karabakh in azerbaijan. The population of the Eap countries suffers not only from hostilities in conflict zones, but also from methods of hybrid warfare. The latter also assume the use of the civil society in the process of achieving the goals set by the aggressor. accordingly, the population needs protection from such hybrid challenges and threats that requires the development of mechanisms for their clear identification and counteraction. Therefore, one of the Easternp artnership Initiative priorities is stability and