National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Climate Change and Birds of the Acadia National Park Region Projected Changes in Habitat Suitability for 130 Breeding Bird Species Natural Resource Report NPS/ACAD/NRR—2014/840 ON THE COVER View from Gorham Mountain, Acadia National Park. NPS photo. Climate Change and Birds of the Acadia National Park Region Projected Changes in Habitat Suitability for 130 Breeding Bird Species Natural Resource Report NPS/ACAD/NRR—2014/840 Nicholas A. Fisichelli1, William B. Monahan2, Matthew P. Peters3, Stephen N. Matthews3,4 1US National Park Service Natural Resource Science and Stewardship Climate Change Response Program Fort Collins, CO 80525 [email protected] 2US National Park Service Natural Resource Science and Stewardship Inventory and Monitoring Division Fort Collins, CO 80525 3US Forest Service Northern Research Station Delaware, OH 43015 4Ohio State University School of Environment and Natural Resources Columbus, OH 43210 September 2014 U.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Fort Collins, Colorado The National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science office in Fort Collins, Colorado, publishes a range of reports that address natural resource topics. These reports are of interest and applicability to a broad audience in the National Park Service and oth- ers in natural resource management, including scientists, conservation and environmental constituencies, and the public. The Natural Resource Report Series is used to disseminate high-priority, current natural resource management information with managerial application. The series targets a general, diverse audience, and may contain NPS policy considerations or address sensitive issues of management applicability. All manuscripts in the series receive the appropriate level of peer review to ensure that the information is scientifically credible, technically accurate, appropriately written for the in- tended audience, and designed and published in a professional manner. This report received formal peer review by subject-matter experts who were not directly involved in the collection, analysis, or reporting of the data, and whose background and ex- pertise put them on par technically and scientifically with the authors of the information. Views, statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations, and data in this report do not necessarily reflect views and policies of the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the U.S. Government. This report is available from the Natural Resource Publications Management website (http:// www.nature.nps.gov/publications/nrpm/) on the Internet. To receive this report in a format optimized for screen readers, please email [email protected]. Please cite this publication as: Fisichelli, N.A., W.B. Monahan, M.P. Peters, and S.N. Matthews. 2014. Climate change and birds of the Acadia National Park region: Future changes in habitat suitability for 130 breed- ing bird species. Natural Resource Report NPS/ACAD/NRR—2014/840. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado. NPS 123/125852, September 2014 ii Climate Change and Birds of the Acadia National Park Region Contents Page Photographs . iv Figures . iv Tables . v Boxes . ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� v Appendices . ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ v Abstract . .. .vii Acknowledgements . .. viii Acronyms . viii Introduction . .. 1 Methods . 3 Climate Data . 3 Potential Bird Habitat Modeling . 4 Reading the Tables and Figures . ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������4 Interpreting the Output . 5 Potential Bird Habitat Suitability Changes . ������������������������������������������������������������������7 Potential Changes by Habitat Preference and Migratory Status . 7 Results . 7 State-listed Species of Special Concern . 10 Discussion . .. 14 Responses by Migratory Status and Habitat Preference . 15 Phenology and Competition . 16 Detecting Change . 17 Climate Change Adaptation . 17 Conclusions . 19 Literature Cited . ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������20 Contents iii Photographs Page Birding in Acadia National Park. 6 Climate change will likely alter where, when, and which bird species park visitors encounter. �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������14 Numerous Neotropical migrants, such as the yellow-rumped warbler, are projected to see large decreases in habitat suitability over the 21st century due to climate change. ����15 Some species, such as the black-capped chickadee, have very minor changes in habitat suitability under the ‘least change’ climate scenario but large projected decreases under the warmest scenario. 16 Habitat suitability of the Acadia region is projected to increase across all climate scenarios for several bird species, such as the northern cardinal. �������������������������������������������17 Common loon on Echo Lake in Acadia National Park. Although this species has shown recent population gains due to international conservation efforts, a chang- ing climate may reduce suitable habitat in the Acadia region . �������������������������������������������17 Responses to a changing climate will vary widely across bird species, some will expand into the Acadia region, others will retreat north, and yet others such as the great blue heron may retain much suitable habitat across the coming century under most climate scenarios. 18 Ongoing climate change is likely to result in new and expanded future suitable habitat in the Acadia region for many species, such as the prothonotary warbler. 19 Figures Page Figure 1. Global greenhouse gas emissions (in gigatons of carbon dioxide equiva- lent per year) under six potential scenarios (B1, A1T, B2, A1B, A2, and A1FI). 3 Figure 2. Baseline (1961-1990) and projected mean annual temperature for the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). 3 Figure 3. Baseline (1961-1990) and projected mean annual precipitation for the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) . 4 Figure 4. The area of analysis for Acadia National Park included 42 pixels (each 12 x 12 mi, 20 x 20 km) for a total area of 6048 mi2 (16,800 km2). ������������������������������������������4 Figure 5. Projected changes in potential habitat suitability for six bird species with sufficient occurrence data during the late 20th century baseline period (1961-1990) . ����������10 Figure 6. Projections of bird habitat suitability by habitat preference in the Acadia region. 11 Figure 7. Projections of bird habitat suitability by migratory status in the Acadia region . ����11 Figure 8. Projected changes in potential habitat suitability for Neotropical migrant warblers with sufficient occurrence data during the late 20th century baseline pe- riod (1961-1990). 12 Figure 9. Projected changes in potential habitat suitability for Maine state-listed species of special concern with sufficient occurrence data during the late 20th cen- tury baseline period (1961-1990). 13 iv Climate Change and Birds of the Acadia National Park Region Tables Page Table 1a-e. Potential changes in habitat suitability for 130 bird species in the Aca- dia National Park region for the end of the 21st century. .. 8 Table 2. Select species with recent trends in population numbers (BBS change 1966-2011) that agree or disagree with modeled habitat suitability changes (be- tween baseline [1961-1990] and 2040 [2010-2039]). .. 18 Boxes Page Box 1. Interpreting Potential Bird Habitat Projections . 2 Box 2. Education and Understanding Through Birds. 15 Appendices Page Appendix 1. Predictor variables used in modeling potential bird habitat suitability (see Iverson et al. 2008 and Matthews et al. 2011 for further details). 23 Appendix 2. Climate change bird atlas habitat suitability output for 130 bird spe- cies in the region including Acadia National Park . �������������������������������������������������������������24 Appendix 3. Habitat preference and migratory status for modeled bird species of the Acadia region. Classifications based on data from Peterjohn and Sauer (1993) and Matthews et al. (2011). .. 31 Appendix 4. Change class rules for common (IV > 5) and rare (IV ≤ 5) species. ‘IV’ is the incidence value (see Methods) . 34 Appendix 5. Projected changes in potential habitat suitability for water, wading, and shore birds with sufficient occurrence data during the late 20th century base- line period (1961-1990) in the Acadia region to permit modeling . 35 Appendix 6. Projected changes in potential habitat suitability for vulture, bird of prey and owl species with sufficient occurrence data during the late 20th century baseline period (1961-1990) in the Acadia region to permit modeling . 36 Appendix 7. Projected changes in potential habitat suitability for killdeer, grouse, pheasant, dove, and similar species with sufficient occurrence data during the late 20th century baseline period (1961-1990) in the Acadia region to permit modeling . .. 37 Appendix 8. Projected changes in potential habitat suitability for woodpecker, jay, crow, chickadee, and nuthatch species with