Environmental Show of the South Chattanooga, Tennessee May 15, 2019 Southeastern Regional Haze Project Update John Hornback Executive Director Metro 4/SESARM 1 Presentation Outline • Introduction to Metro 4/SESARM • Regional haze program expectations • Key VISTAS project tasks • VISTAS technical analysis status • What we’ve learned • Consultation and communications • Remaining work and projected schedule 2 Metro 4/SESARM WHO WE ARE • Nonprofit corporations • Multi-jurisdictional organizations (MJOs) • Organized in mid-1990s by locals/states • Metro 4 membership – 17 local agencies ➢in AL, FL, KY, NC, and TN • SESARM membership – 10 states ➢AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV • Funded by member agencies, mostly via grants 3 Metro 4/SESARM WHAT WE DO Mission: To enhance the effectiveness of member agencies in managing and improving air quality.” • Advocate positions of agencies on issues • Promote communications • Offer training courses • Manage regional meetings and workshops • Support technical analysis projects • “Other duties as assigned” 4 1999 Regional Haze Rule Objectives • Reduction of visibility impairment on the 20% haziest (worst) days in national park and wilderness (Class I) areas to natural conditions by 2064 • No worsening of visibility on the 20% cleanest (best) days. • Development of State Implementation Plans (SIPs) every 10 years to address emissions that contribute to regional haze. 5 Regional Haze Rule Requirements 40 CFR 51.308 • Establish baseline visibility conditions (2000 – 2004) • Evaluate most impaired and clearest days (using new metrics) • Establish uniform rate of progress (URP) glide path and reasonable progress goals (RPGs) for Class I areas • Evaluate best available retrofit technology (BART) – Round 1 6 Regional Haze Rule Requirements 40 CFR 51.308 • Develop long-term strategy • Communicate and consult – RPOs, nearby states, FLMs, stakeholders • Reevaluate periodically • Round 1 SIPs were due December 17, 2007 • Rule revisions effective – January 10, 2017 • Round 2 SIP deadline extended to July 31, 2021 7 8 RPO Responsibilities • Assist states in improving visibility in 156 Class I areas. • Produce technical information to aid in understanding state impacts on national parks and wilderness areas • Evaluate regional emission reduction strategies • Help states meet consultation requirements • Contribute to development of state regional haze SIPs 9 VISTAS Class I Areas List VISTAS REGION FEDERAL CLASS I AREAS LIST STATE – CLASS I AREA FEDERAL LAND MANAGER AL – Sipsey Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service FL – Chassahowitzka Wilderness Area USDI Fish and Wildlife Service FL – Everglades National Park USDI National Park Service FL – Saint Marks Wilderness Area USDI Fish and Wildlife Service GA/TN – Cohutta Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service GA – Okefenokee Wilderness Area USDI Fish and Wildlife Service GA – Wolf Island Wilderness Area USDI Fish and Wildlife Service KY – Mammoth Cave National Park USDI National Park Service NC/TN – Great Smoky Mountains National Park USDI National Park Service NC/TN – Joyce Kilmer-Slickrock Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service NC – Linville Gorge Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service NC – Shining Rock Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service NC – Swanquarter Wilderness Area USDI Fish and Wildlife Service SC – Cape Romain Wilderness Area USDI Fish and Wildlife Service VA – James River Face Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service VA – Shenandoah National Park USDI National Park Service WV – Dolly Sods Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service WV – Otter Creek Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service 10 VISTAS Class I Areas Map 11 Participating Agencies in VISTAS Project • 10 SESARM states • Knox County, Tennessee local agency • represents the 17 local agencies in the Southeast • Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians • represents the 6 federally-recognized tribes in the Southeast 12 VISTAS Project Management Team 13 VISTAS Contractor Team Primary Contractor • Eastern Research Group, Inc oRegi Oommen, Project Manager Subcontractor • Alpine Geophysics, LLC oGreg Stella, Subcontractor Manager 14 VISTAS Project Tasks RFP Emission processing Bids & contractor selection Air quality modeling Contract development Area of influence analysis Work plan and QAPP Modeling protocol Source apportionment tags Contract management Model performance evals Data acquisition/analysis Future year projections Emission updates Reports and archival 15 Emissions Updates • Used EPA’s 2011 base year emissions without change • Updated EPA’s 2028 projection year emissions oEGU and major non-EGU sources oRemoved Clean Power Plan assumptions oAdjusted for changes in fuels and facility operating plans 16 VISTAS Air Quality Model • EPA’s 2011/2028 modeling platform oversion 6.3el oCAMx v6.32 • Replaced CAMx v6.32 with CAMx v6.40 • Used 2011 meteorology • Reasons for using EPA platform oTime limited oBudget limited oMost source sectors acceptably represented in EPA platform 17 VISTAS Modeling Domains 18 VISTAS Area of Influence Analysis • Evaluates emissions (Q), distance to Class I area (d), and extinction weighted residence time (EWRT) in model cells • Formula: (Q/d)*EWRT • Establishes each facility’s contribution to light extinction at each Class I area on the 20% most impaired days • Ranks facilities based on projected contributions • Facilities with highest contributions may be subject to 4-factor analysis 19 Example AOI Results by Sector Example Class I Federal Area Sector SO2 NOx Total Non-Point 4.17% 3.56% 7.73% Non-Road (Marine, 0.30% 3.51% 3.81% Aircraft, and Railroads) Non-Road (Other) 0.16% 8.69% 8.85% Onroad 0.23% 4.14% 4.37% Point 66.91% 7.18% 74.09% Point Prescribed Fires 0.81% 0.33% 1.14% Total 100.0% Example AOI Results by Facility (Sorted on Sulfate Fraction Only) 2028 SO2 2028 NOx Cumulative Sulfate Facility Distance (km) Emissions (Tons)Emissions (Tons) Sulfate Fraction Fraction Nitrate Fraction 1 53 4,846 496 37.59% 37.59% 0.57% 2 640 56,939 6,578 2.98% 40.57% 0.08% 3 69 687 1,796 2.25% 42.82% 1.01% 4 283 6,665 4,528 2.03% 44.86% 0.18% 5 651 41,596 8,123 1.76% 46.61% 0.06% 6 415 10,943 4,388 1.75% 48.36% 0.16% 7 88 608 201 1.30% 49.67% 0.05% 8 513 22,660 3,607 0.99% 50.65% 0.02% 9 626 16,817 5,497 0.83% 51.49% 0.07% 10 977 25,226 9,448 0.83% 52.32% 0.04% 11 87 288 722 0.74% 53.05% 0.24% 12 330 3,737 895 0.72% 53.78% 0.03% 13 569 10,083 11,831 0.66% 54.44% 0.08% 14 807 22,134 7,150 0.65% 55.08% 0.05% 15 602 10,984 4,878 0.62% 55.71% 0.04% 16 427 4,281 3,273 0.55% 56.26% 0.07% 17 620 11,866 5,216 0.54% 56.80% 0.05% 18 865 10,169 7,940 0.52% 57.32% 0.07% 19 1,345 41,740 9,685 0.51% 57.83% 0.03% 20 772 13,038 1,902 0.46% 58.29% 0.01% Sulfate Fraction = EWRT.Qd_SO2_2028/(Total_NO3_2028 + Total_SO4_2028) Nitrate Fraction = EWRT.Qd_NO3_2028/(Total_NO3_2028 + Total_SO4_2028) 21 VISTAS Source Apportionment Modeling • Quantifies visibility impacts from individual point sources, source sectors, and geographic regions • NOx and SO2 tagging • Used for further evaluation of AOI results • Refines information on contributions to visibility impairment • Can be used to adjust future year visibility projections to account for additional emission controls • VISTAS contract with ERG allows for up to 250 tags 22 VISTAS Future Year Model Projections • Calculation of relative response factors (RRFs) • Gives average percent change in pollutant or species concentrations due to emission changes between 2011 and 2028 • Produces design values for 2028 23 4-Factor Analysis • States will evaluate certain sources and emissions to determine if reasonable controls are in place or available • Considers four important factors oPotential costs of compliance oTime necessary for compliance oEnergy and non-air quality environmental impacts of compliance oRemaining useful life of sources subject to this analysis 24 VISTAS Technical Work Status • Data collection/analysis nearing completion • VISTAS 2011 modeling done • Emission updates done • Emission processing done • 2028 modeling done • Benchmarking nearing completion • Area of influence analysis nearing completion • Source apportionment modeling beginning in May • Future year model projections to be initiated 25 What We’ve Learned • The major facility landscape continues to change oShutdowns, fuel switches, additional emission controls • Emissions continue to go down • SO2 emissions are still the major haze contributor • Regional haze levels continues to be reduced • Visibility improvement is well ahead of schedule 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Visibility Impairment Trend (20% Most Impaired Days) Great Smoky Mountains National Park 35 29.16 27.56 30 24.70 25 21.51 20 18.33 15.15 15 11.96 10.05 10 Haziness Index (Deciviews) Index Haziness 5 0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064 Observations (Impaired Days) Glide Path (Impaired Days) 5-year Average (Impaired Days) 34 VISTAS Region NOx emission changes County level 2011 to 2028 35 VISTAS Region SO2 emission changes County level 2011 to 2028 36 VISTAS Draft 2028 Modeling Results Ratio of 2028 Model Results to 2028 Uniform Rate of Progress 110.0% 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% VISTAS Class I Areas ➔ Non-VISTAS Class I Areas ➔ 50.0% 37 VISTAS Consultation and Communications • Sharing information with EPA OAQPS, Regions 3 and 4 • Sharing information and seeking input from Federal Land Managers (next call early June) • Preparing for briefing to stakeholders (later in June) • Considering a face-to-face VISTAS meeting – TBD • Working with RPO colleagues towards a national regional meeting this fall • Available