Couv anglaisok Page 1 Scientific editors Benjamin Sultan, Richard Lalou, Mouftaou Amadou Sanni, Amadou Oumarou, Mame Arame Soumaré Rural societies in the face Benjamin Sultan, Richard Lalou Mouftaou Amadou Sanni Amadou Oumarou Mame Arame Soumaré of climatic and environmental changes in West Africa The future of West Africa depends on the capacity of its agriculture to ensure the food security of the population, which should double in the next 20 years,while facing up to the new risks resulting from climate warming. Indeed, the changes in temperature and precipita- tions already operating and that should become more marked will have serious effects on agricultural production and water resources in this part of Africa in the near future. One of the keys to meeting this new challenge is the adaptation of rural societies to climate risks. To gain better knowledge of the potential, processes and barriers, this book analyses recent and ongoing trends in the climate and the environment and examines how rural societies perceive and integrate them: what are the impacts of these changes, what vulnerabilities are there but also what new opportunities do they bring? How do the populations adapt and what innovations do they implement—while the climate- induced effects interact with the social, political, economic and technical changes that are in motion in Africa? By associating French and African scientists (climatologists, IRD agronomists, hydrologists, ecologists, demographers, geogra- 44, bd de Dunkerque phers, anthropologists, sociologists and others) in a multidisci- 13572 Marseille cedex 02 plinary approach, the book makes a valuable contribution to Rural societies in the face of climatic [email protected] better anticipation of climatic risks and the evaluation of African www.editions.ird.fr societies to stand up to them. and environmental changes in West Africa 35 € ISBN : 978-2-7099-2424-5 Cyan Magenta Yellow Black Escape-P1-GB.qxp_Escape-MEP 21/10/2017 08:48 Page1 Rural societies in the face of climatic and environmental changes in West Africa Escape-P1-GB.qxp_Escape-MEP 21/10/2017 08:48 Page2 Escape-P1-GB.qxp_Escape-MEP 21/10/2017 08:48 Page3 Rural societies in the face of climatic and environmental changes in West Africa Scientific editors Benjamin SULTAN, Richard LALOU, Mouftaou AMADOU SANNI, Amadou OUMAROU, Mame Arame SOUMARÉ IRD Éditions FRENCH NATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Collection Synthèses Marseille, 2017 Escape-P1-GB.qxp_Escape-MEP 21/10/2017 08:48 Page4 Principal translator Simon Barnard Coordination Corinne Lavagne Layout Aline Lugand – Gris Souris Cover layout Michelle Saint-Léger Page layout Pierre Lopez Cover illustrations Irrigated gardens in Niger – © IRD/M. Oï Squall line in Niger – © IRD/L. Descroix Sanio millet seeds (sénégal) – © IRD/B. Sultan Since the law of 1st July 1992 (intellectual property code, first part), under paragraphs 2 and 3 of article L122-5, only authorises, on the one hand, “copies and reproductions strictly reserved for the private use of the copyist and not destined for collective use,” and, on the other hand, analyses and short quotations in a purpose of example and illustration, “any representation or complete or partial reproduction, made without the approval of the author or the entitled parties or the legal claimant, is prohibited (paragraph 1 of article L. 122-4). Such a representation or reproduction, by whatever process, would therefore constitute counterfeit punishable under title III of the above law. © IRD, 2017 ISBN : 978-2-7099-2424-5 4 Escape-P1-GB.qxp_Escape-MEP 21/10/2017 08:48 Page5 Sommaire . 9 Introduction B. Sultan, R. Lalou, A. Oumarou, M. Amadou Sanni, M. A. Soumaré Part I Recent and future climate change in West Africa. 17 Obvious features, uncertainties and perceptions Introduction . 19 T. Vischel Chapter 1 Climate warming observed in the Sahel since 1950 . 23 F. Guichard, L. Kergoat, F. Hourdin, C. Léauthaud, J. Barbier, E. Mougin, B. Diarra Chapter 2 The return of a wet period in the Sahel? Observations and prospects . 43 T. Vischel, T. Lebel, G. Panthou, G. Quantin, A. Rossi, M. Martinet Chapter 3 Climate projections in West Africa: the obvious and the uncertain . 61 A. Deme, A. T. Gaye, F. Hourdin Chapter 4 Contrasting perceptions with climate change. Scientific observations in three West African contexts . 87 F. Kosmowski, R. Lalou, B. Sultan, O. Ndiaye, B. Muller, S. Galle, L. Seguis Chapter 5 When nature talks to us. Comparative analysis of representations of climatic and environmental changes . 109 A. Attané, A. Oumarou, M. A. Soumaré 5 Escape-P1-GB.qxp_Escape-MEP 21/10/2017 08:48 Page6 Rural societies in the face of climatic and environmental changes in West Africa Part II . 125 Impacts of the climate and environmental changes Introduction . 127 L. Kergoat Chapter 6 Between desertification and regreening of the Sahel. What is really happening? . 129 C. Dardel, L. Kergoat, P. Hiernaux, M. Grippa, E. Mougin Chapter 7 Anthropic and environmental factors involved in the increase in flooding in the Sahel . 145 L. Descroix, G. Mahé, J.-C. Olivry, J. Albergel, B. Tanimoun, I. Amadou, B. Coulibaly, I. Bouzou Moussa, O. Faran Maiga, M. Malam Abdou, K. Souley Yéro, I. Mamadou, J.-P. Vandervaere, E. Gautier, A. Diongue-Niang, H. Dacosta, A. Diedhiou Chapter 8 The forage constraint in pastoral and agropastoral livestock farming in the Sahel. Adaptation and prospects . 163 P. Hiernaux, M. O. Diawara, L. Kergoat, E. Mougin Chapter 9 Paradoxical pond changes in the non-cultivated Sahel. Diagnostis, causes and consequences . 185 L. Kergoat, M. Grippa, P. Hiernaux, J. Ramarohetra, J. Gardelle, C. Dardel, F. Gangneron, L. Gal, L. Descroix Chapter 10 The impacts of climate change on crop yields in West Africa . 199 B. Sultan, P. Roudier, S. Traoré Part III . 215 Social changes in rural populations Introduction . 217 B. Gastineau Chapter 11 Rural populations faced with environmental hazards. African experiences . 221 B. Gastineau, M. Gibigaye, F. Kosmowski, A. Adjamagbo, T. Houngbégnon Chapter 12 Land rights and fertility management. Two different perspectives: Djougou (Benin) and Niakhar (Senegal) . 235 F. Gangneron, E. Robert Chapter 13 The role of seasonal and pluri-annual migration in reducing vulnerability. Hombori and Djougou districts . 253 A. Bonnassieux, F. Gangneron 6 Escape-P1-GB.qxp_Escape-MEP 21/10/2017 08:48 Page7 Chapter 14 Seasonal migration and climate change in rural Senegal. A form of adaptation or failure to adapt? . 269 R. Lalou, V. Delaunay Chapter 15 Female migration, a non-farming strategy for adaptation to climatic and environmental changes in the Imanan (Niger) . 295 A. Oumarou Chapter 16 Political changes, landholding dynamics and socio-economic reconstruction. Imanan administrative district (Niger) . 313 A. Mohamadou, H. Abdoutan Part IV . 325 Adaptation of farming systems, innovations Introduction . 327 R. Lalou Chapter 17 Innovation in rural West Africa. What changes in farming pratices? . 335 F. Kosmowski, M. Gibigaye, B. Muller, R. Lalou Chapter 18 The return of Sanio millet in thee Sine. Rational adaptation to climate evolution . 351 B. Muller, R. Lalou, P. Kouakou, M. A. Soumaré, J. Bourgoin, S. Dorégo, B. Sine Chapter 19 Reintroducing livestock to increase the sustainability of village landscapes in West Africa The case of the groundnut basin in Senegal . 375 E. Audouin, J. Vayssières, M. Odru, D. Masse, G. S. Dorégo, V. Delaunay, P. Lecomte Chapter 20 An example of adaptive strategy in the face of food insecurity. Potato growing in the Imanan (Niger-republic) . 399 R. Hassane Conclusion . 417 B. Sultan, R. Lalou, M. Amadou Sanni, A. Oumarou, M. A. Soumaré List of contributors . 427 7 Escape-P1-GB.qxp_Escape-MEP 21/10/2017 08:48 Page8 Escape-P1-GB.qxp_Escape-MEP 21/10/2017 08:48 Page9 Introduction Benjamin SULTAN, Richard LALOU, Amadou OUMAROU, Mouftaou AMADOU SANNI, Mame Arame SOUMARÉ A close link between climate and agricultural production The population of the Sahel is mainly rural and particularly concerned by climate variability as this affects food, water and financial resources and has a direct impact on public health. The economy and food security are closely dependent on rainfed farming—used on 93% of the cultivated land. The African farming sector employs 70% of total labour (FAO 2003), generates 15 to 20% of the GDP and produces 80% of the cereals consumed in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition to this dependence, rapid population growth and limited access to technological adaptations (mechanisation, fertilizers, irrigation) are factors that aggravate the socioeconomic effect of the climate (UNDP, 2004). This vulnerability to climate increased at the end of the 20th century as a result of a nearly 30% decrease in precipitation in the Sahel over a period of 40 years (BROWN and CRAWFORD, 2008) while the population doubled. The more marked famines since the 1970s necessitated international food aid and were caused partly by climatic variations (DILLEY et al., 2005). In this context, understanding and anticipating climate fluctuations and changes together with their consequences for farming form a major issue for socioeconomic development and food security in sub-Saharan Africa. The expected consequences of climate change are added to these recent fluctuations. The last report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) con- firms—with increasing certitude—the global warming caused by the increase in 9 Escape-P1-GB.qxp_Escape-MEP 21/10/2017 08:48 Page10 Rural societies in the face of climatic and environmental changes in West Africa greenhouse gases and its probable consequences for the environment and societies. In particular, it issued another warning to the international community about an increase in temperatures worldwide and a probable increase in the frequency and intensity of major meteorological events such as droughts, mentioning Africa as being one of the regions that are most vulnerable to changes in climate. Even if many uncertainties remain about the effects of global warming on the climate of Africa, such an upset will certainly have repercussions on water resources and agri- cultural production (CGIAR, 2009).